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good evening everybody good evening just to introduce myself my name is David amigo D and I'm pro vice-chancellor for research and enterprise here at Keele University and a very warm welcome to everyone from the Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences were very pleased to preneur present tonight's Grand Challenges lecture and tonight we're presenting the lecture in partnership with the school of geology geography and the environment and in bringing Eilis and vge together we're delighted to welcome professor Danny dueling for tonight's lecture the lecture is entitled brexit and the end of the British Empire so just before we hear the lecture just a little bit about Danny Danny Dolan is Halford mackinder professor in geography at the University of Oxford where he is also a fellow of Sun Peter's College his academic career has included posts at Newcastle the universities of Bristol Leeds and Sheffield the university of canterbury in new zealand and a visiting professorship at Goldsmiths University of London geographically he's come full circle returning to his hometown of Oxford and he took up his chair in Oxford in September 2013 of his many roles he notes that an important one was play worker in children's summer play schemes where he learned that important life lesson that learning is indeed that playing is learning for life and he tries to keep this to the fore his most recent books are peak inequality co-authored with Sally Tomlinson which was published in 2018 and Rule Britannia brexit and the end of empire also with Sally Thomson Tomlinson and that's very recently published in January 2019 his work concerns issues of housing health employments and education poverty and he has a lengthy back catalog of publications having published more than a dozen books with many colleagues on issues related to social inequalities in Britain and several hundreds of journal papers so not is the only not only is he a distinguished speaker for Eilis he also will be of great interest to the Institute for social inclusion daddy darling is an academic of the Academy of the learning societies in the social sciences was honorary president of the Society of cartographers from 2007 to 2017 and he's also patron of Road peace the national charity for road crash victims in his talk tonight professor darling we'll discuss the central importance of geography in brexit and we'll argue that the source of British woes may be at least in part an outcome of having so recently been at the heart of the largest empire the world has ever known please can you welcome professor Danny darling [Applause] thank you ever so much for the invited it's great to be here I must start off by saying this of course is an incredibly serious subject possibly the most serious thing that has happened to this country at least more serious and SUEZ first thing it's since the second world war and I know there'll be a wide variety of views in the room and I'm not intending to annoy anybody but as you said I did begin life as a play worker and sometimes if you don't laugh at this it does get all a bit too depressing the British Empire why on earth have I stuck the British Empire in the title it's because Sully Thomason and I who began the writing a book on this shortly after the referendum trying to work out the reasons behind the reasons behind the reasons of why out of 28 countries should it be as kept on coming back to the Empire as the thing that was different about us Sally's expertise is looking at special education but also at old textbooks what were we taught at school in the 1930s 1940s 50s 60s 70s she's read Boris Johnson's textbooks from his prep school which included the phrase pickaninnies and watermelon smiles so when you're worrying about the choices of words that boys might use you really ought to go back and think where they where they come from and of course when you look at how we voted we voted differently by age and we were educated ly differently largely by age but then divided I'm going to zoom through I've got far too many slides I'm going to show you a whole series of images please think of questions for me absolutely remarkable times in a matter of weeks we've gone up to a new political party polling of this this weekend at least I won't check the news today things happen fast polling at the front of the opinion polls this kind of thing doesn't even happen in France you know this it doesn't happen doesn't happen elsewhere this is a graphic that one was from the Guardian this is a graphic I made myself in the style of really patronizing BBC graphics when the BBC just have free numbers we even just - and while the telly the two numbers they create these kind of cylinders and and so on this is a graphic the BBC never never produced but it was the results of local elections in terms of seats when occur services lost 1330 you keep lost hundred forty-five and labour lost eighty four and the comment on the BBC was that voters have delivered a stinging rebuke to the two main parties because 84 and 1330 are very similar numbers I'm going to talk to you later about numeracy and Britain an empire and this is the book being advertised so behind his flippin tree there are 300 pages and two years of work to get to this that the book winds identity was published on the day of the first meaningful vote 15 for January 2019 I think we're being told today or yesterday that we're going to be getting a not very meaningful vote coming up and it contains lots of pictures so I'll just show you some of them this picture shows a wide diversity of political parties to which the richest people in Britain donate and and so on the rich Lister a couple of years ago but one of the fascinating things about about brexit is that well these people and especially the City of London fought it had bought a political party and have discovered to their complete shock that they haven't and that the members of that party 80,000 maybe seventy maybe fifty thousand in reality actually own it things you would never have known we have pictures of our border force this is a British ship doctor less fuss free miles away from the Turkish border to stop children and families crossing in dinghies this kind of thing it's how did it get to this question we have cartoons this one is from 1901 in The Daily Express where the caption reads the poor performer how the government have been frustrated in their efforts to check alien immigration the aliens of course in 1901 were coming from Eastern Europe mainly and Russia and they were Jewish and we passed an aliens ACTA me had a British Union of fascists which were a Time rose in popularity I never imaged from a newspaper the subtitle this reads Britannia I can no longer offer shelter to fugitives England is not a free country and again the fear of people coming people seen painted as strange and different but at this point just after the height of empire but even then even even back then we could suddenly get very very worried we were carving up the world we were top dog you can take all the other empires of Europe and put them together and they're not a match even combined two hours them Italy we did take Germans it Olympic Germany's little Empire off them at the end of the First World War you can ask yourself whether in the long term it is actually beneficial to I've had an empire or not if you compare those to Germany left alone and much more importantly for the people who we ruled over we told ourselves a particular story about the Empire it's in our textbooks it's the story about civilizing the world about bringing trains or bringing order about bringing justice about having the white man's burden about how we gain nothing out of this in fact it was a terrible burden for us to do that's what we told ourselves it's what we still tell ourselves so geography a level curriculum resulted by Michael Gove so that if you study somewhere abroad it's his South America because that's one of the few in fact the only part of the world where we didn't have many colonial possessions so we still don't teach our children about what the Empire actually was Enoch Powell Enoch Powell a kind of force from the past a man who is Secretary of State for health went out to the Caribbean and to India begging people to come over and be nurses and bus drivers and then move in a few years of going out and asking said how told it was that they were coming Joseph P Kelly very kindly let us use that image he's drawn kind of an image about where we are now and this lot we do say a lot about politicians this is Steve Bell's cartoon of the the billionaire club you can no longer show the original picture although I have it if anybody would like to see it but the cartoon the cartoon is kind of nicer this is from again the weekends papers the brexit party clown it's really interesting times not necessarily terrible times I'll give you some optimism just early on the nearest equivalent we have - this is Suez Suze's national humiliation the Americans told us in the friendship we couldn't do this we had to call back that canal became Egyptian we were no longer a world power we were humiliated and within just a few years we got the 1960s and we got the young not having respect for the old voting in a different way getting a different government getting changes in legislation so for the first time if caffee needed to come home and she was pushing her two kids around in a pram she might actually get somewhere to sleep getting a change in education so that for the first time in British history children and the majority of counties could go to school with the other children in their counties now it didn't all come about because of service but there are times in British history's when you get an acceleration of social progress and it is often associated with blunders of the elite in other countries this is very very typical the fastest way to social progress is to lose a war if you lose a war you kick out the old families who in charge all they kicked out by the invading forces and whoever comes in you can challenge me on this but I can't find an example whoever comes in always appears to do a better job than those who were in before we did this in our own small way my grandfather was born during the first world war the first world war was possibly excusable it's supposed to last a few weeks that's a bit of a cock-up many people died they came back what wasn't excusable was allowing things to develop such that there had to be a Second World War and so when my granddad came back from Berlin he and his friends were absolutely determined that they were not going to take any advice from those who were older than them anymore it made him go out to fight and they voted in a completely and utterly new government and regime much such as the surprise that they exist government when the elite get things wrong the young get agitated and can act so much has changed this isn't very long ago opening a church fete in Maidenhead in her constituency happy smiling relaxed still still the Home Secretary I think at this point so much has changed so quickly I think I don't think it's just me and we did things recently which are intimately connected with Empire after the war people became Britain British citizens it ought citizens all around the world and then we decided to take away that because just like the Jews from Eastern Europe we became scared of people again operation vacant the word vacant was used in Bewick's manuscript his species perfect being the man who sorted all those children on the on the island it may be complete coincidence that the civil servant chose to label it operation vacant we may have been a cry for help from somebody in a home office doing it this child is looking at the poster one of these wonderful posters has now put up illegally in London you just get some paste but it yourself on the bus stop opposed to instructing people not to fill in the school census because there was a fear that the school census would be used to actually identify children to the port in future if this all sounds too extreme to you there were enough of you in the audience who can remember the 1970s in a way I can and Who am M bird a slogan of the National Front which was go home go back to where you come from I never thought I would actually go up to see us actually doing this to people and the National Front is still around Nigel for ours claims the reason he wrote NF at school was it was his initials there were letters about this and it may have been just his initials but I can remember the 1970s and this lot this lost a truly remarkable these are the incoming cabinets at arrays that made a first cabinet most of them are no longer there one of the hardest things what it means Sally had to do is his chart will turn earth had happened to order ministers and the new ministers and the next ministers who resigned and in one chapter in this book we simply lift their most embarrassing public throw part in order there has never ever been a British cabinet as the right word you have to read through it I won't you'll know the kind of things that they are done you might have a kind of forgotten things they ask their secretary to buy for their wife and I won't get through the list is it's just stunning it's the falling apart of written if you like and you could look at it purely for you to behave you have actually members of our cabinet compared to previous capitals compared to the factory cabinets instance who arranged won't leave why did they do it what was the impetus are going to go through shortly the actual job field that has devote that we very quickly but we have to remember that this vote was arranged there was a campaign a campaign for a long time it didn't even start with Jimmy golf this referendum party in 1970 was earlier than that Matthew Elliot was the chief executive of this the map by the way is Freddie Heinekens map of the splitting up of Europe Freddy Heineken of the beer in 1992 hired two historians to predict what would happen to this continent in future I'm not showing you you the Slavia they got it spot-on it's interesting to look Britain I think the kind of clever thing this map is to create a region that's called Northumbria but give its capital york anyway it's really really hard to think about how England might split you probably can't even imagine the idea you can certainly imagine Scotland going I think it'd be great if Scotland went with a 66 percent majority we can now understand the importance of getting a 66 percent majority if you are going to try and create your own country you really do at least one two-thirds of you to actually be in on the project Ireland who knew there was no border who knew that we'd actually signed up that there is no border you put a yogurt pot on that border and you are trespassing we've discovered this we of course add agree to it benedict cumberbatch he is no Benedict Cumberbatch this is Dominic Cummings as played by Benedict Cumberbatch if you watch the documentary they come out campaign direct to a vote leave they didn't mean to win they didn't expect to win if they had expected to win and Dominic is not stupid they wouldn't have done so many things which would later would have been determined to have been illegal they would have covered their tracks there were to be more careful about the donations they would have fought through what's going to happen they if you remember the faces of August Johnson and Michael Gove wouldn't have looked so absolutely miserable the day after when they didn't get what it was they thought they were going to get boys thought he was going to get man-of-the-people he is 40 is going to get the job of Prime Minister I'm not quite sure what go 40 was going to get but it wasn't this and Dominic appears to be in hiding as far as I can see and I don't know where the court cases have got over there over their behavior and and so on didn't expect to win spread betting said they weren't going to win the idea was a second referendum I wanna click build up and actually have a plan it's liberal I going into Iraq without a plan of what you do after you've got in there was no plan by the brick cities why was there no plan because it didn't expect to win the first time predictions of the vote is test people's eyesight different I should tell you what's on that on this this is the highest correlation of the vote along the y-axis you've got percentage of lis voters each dose is a local authority district and on the x-axis someone you've got percent of adults who have a healthy weight and on the other you've got percent of adults who are obese the best predictor of how many voted people voted that leave in each area is the proportion of people who are fat just is that I feel okay saying this because if you want to know what the difference is between overweight and obese by the time I've had dinner tonight I will be obese I am currently overweight the academic who produced this and published it three weeks after the result was absolutely pilloried in the Sun Daily Express Daily Mail probably rightly because he suggested that this this implied that there were people who don't plan ahead who are just go for something without thinking about it and they get fat when they vote Leave It was as he said it's a psychology it's nothing to do with as at all the reasons well I won't go into the reasons why some people have fatter or thinner although for the fatter people in the audience it is your genes above everything else and the environment for the thinner people in the audience well done although it isn't mainly you the fin of people of course I got about big health benefit unless we have a famine which is why we have a variation in fatness anyway it is things that correlate with with overweight and above all else what correlates with overweight 0.79 not point a tear is immigration because the migrants although they didn't get a vote on average a healthy young thin and fit fit and have often several university degrees and the parts of the country to which migrants came predominately London but also Oxford but also anywhere where this work but Dominique um has always but predominately come and the parts of the country have voted remained and it isn't just that the migrants tend to be fed migrants always tend to be healthy it's a thing about migrants it isn't just that they were Finn if a load of migrants turn up in your city and unfortunately they've started turning off for very large numbers in my city I was born in Oxford used to be an easier place to be fat in now ever where you can imagine how terrible is and what's more we interview all these students and as far as I can see the main purpose of the interview is to interview three students with absolutely identical GCSEs and so on to pick the thin one I never see any way if you live if you live somewhere where other people are thinner you will get thinner yourself if you live somewhere wherever people are larger you'll get larger you won't notice you're getting larger because your average let's go away from that accommodation with deprivation the combination with deprivation is point zero three nothing nothing at all it's not about poor people voting to leave or which people to vote to leave there is no is nothing there age age is really important the young far away from me the blue is remain the young majority remained but of course the vast majority didn't get our bed didn't vote if you ask them if I asked you ninety percent of people were call voting they're not lying we change our memories about knowing we do it ninety percent of people will tell you they voted in a referendum a high portion of young will tell you they voted but they didn't seventy percent were in bed they were in bed because they've been in bed since nineteen ninety two when we put them to bed I was the first lecture and a young didn't vote how do we get them into bed we introduced a poll tax massive disincentive for the young to vote majority voting leave when you get to forty five fifty fifty four fifty five sixty four sixty five-plus and the elder people vote that's the key thing turnout is absolutely key and turnout has not been understood this little squiggly diagram is about the rise of the far-right the important thing about the rise of the far-right and by far I mean extreme right this is BNP you Kip EDL that kind of thing it's not slow and steady it whips up at every European election this craft near me is the graph of support for what I call the farm I have a very very simple definition of far-right there is a big conservative bloc in Europe it's called the EPP it's the biggest set of any piece in Europe it's one that Merkel's in if you're in the EPP you're conservative if your right-wing if you belong to a group to the right of the EPP you are far-right in Europe 1979 our first election nobody voted far-right national further in the stand 1984 European election nobody voted 1989 should say point 1 percent and F put up some candidates 1994 1.1 percent 1989 seven-point 1999 7.5 percent we get in the beginning of the Year kit she found the four year clip get a fifth of the vote 2009 the toys have left the EPP haven't yet joined something else they left the EPP 2014 the British conservatives formed an alliance with fascist parties in the mainland including alternative for Deutschland and formed a group to the right of the EPP which I would call far-right I have another group I'd call extreme white in a 2014 European elections over 52% of people in Britain who voted which was only a third and boy is it going to be interesting to see how many vote into his time 52% of people voted European far-right in this country we are it for the European far-right we send over 40m EPS who formed the bulk of the far-right coalition's the Finns have got one Swedes have one alternative for Deutschland has one we send 40 the remarkable thing and I think it may be an empire kind of legacy is we can't even see ourselves what do you think they think of us on the mainland they know they know who in the parliament does belong to these groups and you belong to these groups and they get you money from Brussels map of European immigration dark blue areas over 20% of people are born aboard the map is stretched by population so you're not looking at Scandinavia because all those kind of neighbors wonderful it is small the yellow areas less five percent born aboard Eastern Europe doesn't attract many migrants less than five percent how many people here were born outside the UK if your hands up oh we're over average that's about 10% okay you're not that sensitive topia people who come to an evening lecture were not average of the area but you are you were higher but in general you're living in an area where less than one in 20 people were born aboard and as I said earlier the best correlation apart from being overweight of course is migrants of the fewer migrants in your area the more likely you are to vote leave for the reason your site is the migrants because you've been told that the reason you can't get the house or your children can't give a house and you can't get a good job and you can't get to the school as the migrants look Ireland notice how Blue Island is that is migration within the island right there isn't large numbers of people coming from a house where to Ireland that's migration within the island that's why you don't touch that thing which is no longer a border but there are Spain that says we're the biggest group down there they weren't all come back if we were to suddenly leave the ones he'll come back the ones who need a hospital Switzerland has a higher proportion but the whole of North West Europe has a higher proportion apart from London because you've only got to go up on the Dutch border find a boyfriend or girlfriend just over on the German border and if you two want to sleep in the same house one of you has to be a migrant there are no borders now that you could possibly impose in the majority of Europe hey let's not say let's just leave Dave for a minute but it may be that way of behaving that cocksure Dennis where did it come from who taught him to believe in himself why did we need schools that teach you to believe in yourself so much to just trust your judgment imagine that you're ruling a quarter of the population of the planet with a very small number of people you need to educate some people to absolutely believe that they're special and to go out and run entire countries and it's very very useful it's a brilliant education system if you have an empire it's not such a great education system in this country if you don't here's the map of the results just the majority-minority the yellow is remain the blue is leave this is one version of north-south divide it's the one this is actually a train that used to go along it that's one version or you can take this one doesn't matter which one you do 52% of leaf voters are below that line which has a minority of the electorate and I'm now going to bore you silly but very quickly about this by the way 59% of leaf voters of social class abc1 middle class from nor - coughs exit poll the elevat-- is 1% so between 58 and 60% early voters are middle class in the majority of leave voters live in the south we know that - the exact voter because we know for every place exactly how many people voted leave a man or didn't vote I am trying to get this established as a new national walking route because I am determined before I die if I do one thing as a job professor at Oxford it will be to explain the majority of the lis vote came from the South of England so this route starts off in Cornwall 56% 56 and a half percent of Maine goes through Devon 55 Dorset 56 how much you're 54 hops the Isle of Wight almost 62 Sussex majority Kent almost 60% s 662 Suffolk majority nor from a Georgie Cambridgeshire majority just hartfordshire majority Bedford sure you can see as he goes round eventually ending up in the city of London which you may think of as the least leave area only twenty four point seven percent of the tiny electorate to the City of London voted leave but I'm going to show you for every single one of these areas everything on these counties and the course I could do this because once you know its majority of people voted leave down here every single one I can find you a set of areas in North where there were more people in lecture role but fewer voted leave and God knows why this is so hard to get over to journalists right Cornwall Cornwall Cornwall 183 found some people vote leave and all that matters is a total number of leave otres because that is winning a national ballot 56.5% electorate I've taken an awesome show coalfield 2000 Lesley voters we have a good 30,000 more people who had a right to vote on the electoral roll actually not you know real right not people who are you up in citizens the percentage might be hiring Cornwall serve those who are sawing it in a coal field those who voted 56.6% voted leave in Nazish coal field but because turnout was higher in Cornwall Cornwall provided more leave voters Stoke looks like a strong leave area because the levers vote it very large numbers of people didn't vote we always forget about there when you win this thing with the majority votes Devin morally voters Canada and Gateshead then should call my Denbighshire areas this anomaly Cena sleeve Devin produces more lead voters and who is it in Devon it's not people in the poor parts of definitely it's the old of Devon how would you get into Devon if you're old you retire into it for more affluent parts of Britain that's why the deprivation relationship isn't there yes in London it's a poor part of London which have some leave voters but in Devon it's the affluent parts of Devon because the old live in the affluent parts morally votives endorses the Northumberland North and South hindsight that's why they're being more electors they're morally photos Hampshire's my favorite look at this I mean it really was Hampshire's enormous over half a million leave voters 54% and you can add up the whole of Merthyr Tydfil which numerous reporters went in to say how on earth could the Welsh do this don't they understand the whole of Sheffield v biggest city corner Blackpool whole of Leeds whole a Derby on the Great Yarmouth 40 series morally foetus in Hampshire despite fewer people with a right to vote nobody's ever gone to Hampshire and said why did you do it I've stuck Luton in an or for some reason anyway Isle of Wight much higher than Luton Sussex okay some Scottish areas but beats Lincolnshire Kent Morley voters in Kent and Anglesey Stoke Chesterfield Haller Bradford Preston sulfur fundal and Hull and corded I'll put together and okay you know Kent pretty levy but still Essex even more morally voters and Essex than in the whole of Lincoln Rutland blind I went and we need another slide and all that lot because the Essex they really really did want to leave working classes in the north there's probably the fact that the majority of leave voters were middle class and lived in the south I have probably bored you but you know if anybody wants to argue about it we can just go around let's assume it all does the same thing O'Shea this is it's my favorite recent photos a picture of Nigel by the way finally we're cutting into areas not yet Somerset solidly out morally voters in Somerset and eyelets and how I get stockton-on-tees Hartlepool middles were Hamilton what's the Guardian stories for them about why they voted leaf none from Somerset let's get into the middle of London well sue me after I'm sorry 47.8% leave Morley voters in Surrey danwoah from Mansfield Newark sure would rush cliff is I just think it's remarkable we could do the same thing for London and we end up with an enormous number of areas to compare with London and Northern Ireland has to be tucked in and finally anybody want to tell me which area outside of the southeast have fewer leave voters in the City of London no I am strange its Gibraltar this please me this has taken me several nights constructing the brexit jigsaw just to say you can name me any part of the north and I will show you some in the south where more people vote leave just think it has to be known we're trying to make it a cycle way by the way because it would take far too long to walk here's a nerdy graph I think I've got about 10 minutes or less and the key thing there is is the is the white it's showing you the difference from the average for each area south east particularly high turnout South West high turnout at eastern region high turn my turnout was really key whales bang on the national UK average the Welsh did nothing strange had you taken the English out of Wales it would be remain but the English you've retired into Wales tipped it over Empire to come back to this that's what our empire looks like in terms of population size now of what we had the dates of the date at which we were not invited in and the date at which we left almost always lot of our choosing to leave the picture there is of the last colony going unless you think of Gibraltar as a colony which the Spanish do and it shows how many of you can remember the young lady crying on the day yeah he can yeah they showed loads of pictures of her crying as the Sun set and the Royal Yacht Britannia went off into the distance Prince child's a young Prince Charles was just off the picture with this incredible look in his face which is oh my god what do I do it's a woman and she's crying this is this is my nicest Empire me if you feel like because it's it's embarrassing talking about the Empire she wasn't crying because she was sad about the end of the Empire she's told us why she's crying she was interviewed years later in her in the newspaper she was crying because she couldn't understand why her mum and dad weren't letting her stay in Hong Kong so she could stay of her boyfriend because course she was she cried for three hours that day and it was all filmed by the BBC who then picked a bit to tell the story about the end of the wonderful Empire Jacob meet Smaug is publishing a book in a couple of weeks called great Victorians the greatest Victorian he starts with his Lord Palmerston Lord Palmerston sent the gunboats in to allow free trade free trade of what it's free trade of the opium wheel growing and in so we could destroy the Chinese civilization because we were the biggest drug dealer the world has ever known why were we growing opium in in India because we needed the Indians to raise some money somehow to buy the textiles why were they buying textiles because we destroyed their textile industry because we had textiles to sell them that we made in Manchester why were we making it in Manchester because we shipped people from Africa because we encourage slavery more than ever a country over to the Americas so they could pick cotton so it could be taken back to Manchester so it could be woven and sold in India said that the drug so then he said to China nobody has a touch on us and you know this would be fun to learn at school history would certainly not be boring no trying to remember the names of them of the wives at home of the 8th beheaded for some odd reason as if it matters anymore you know this is exciting stuff but we don't teach it we were in an odd place I gave a talk at Nuneaton a few weeks ago this is in the back garden of the house opposite the Fe College in in the neaten I just take pictures we're strange we don't protest 1968 protests were tiny in this country compared to France the Germans are not very good at protesting only 30 percent of them have been on the protests but they're twice as good as we are now admittedly a few weeks ago 1000 almost a thousand people did get themselves arrested things could be changing I think it's the highest ever voluntary and like the miners strike but why don't we protest we didn't have very much to protest about for 200 years we were doing well very very well when I first went to France so to be on a school trip I was 15 and I could get 10 francs to the pound and with free francs I could buy a bottle of wine and I had a pound wine will be so rich it wasn't because we invented everything just tell you that if you remember having to learn about spinning journeys and Arkwright and and yeah go to the industrial museum in Paris they have their own inventors they've all got French names it's the same inventions this is the history of immigration to the country and one graphic which if we were American you'd all know by heart because they would celebrate their immigration history but we don't this little triangle is the recent Eastern European migration why did we get a million people because we went out and asked them to come in 2003 we decided to open up the borders early along with Sweden and somebody else may also buddy forgets because we wanted people to come it was an invitation we've we've got form on this we deliberately and like other countries in Europe made ourselves available and then complained about something which we've had again and again in our history but you may say oh look the Earth's nine million people Danny either understand you live in Oxford yeah I live in a town that I grew up in in which almost everybody is an immigrant almost everybody I went to school with me cannot live in my town anymore I could get angry about it but I don't the immigrants by the way at M&T English and it's very annoying to watch where you go up be utterly utterly changed in the way that my hometown was I get very annoyed when people want to complain about the Roma in Sheffield because they've got no idea what it actually is like - what's your hometown completely altered by immigrants and how do we vote in Oxford we vote remain of course that's what the percentage looks like if you put everybody in and of course is you saw the map of Europe before you'll know that this is just common it's what's going on all over the continent people are moving further they're moving out we have our own immigrants we call them expats but there somebody else is immigrant things are falling apart these tents are outside the school of geography the University of Oxford as far as I'm aware there have never been people in tents in Oxford before I was down in Folkston and there's literally the porn berg who is being kept up by iron Gerdes you go around you can see why people are annoyed why did the negotiations go so badly we spent a year in the gauche 18 why do they go badly just before the results standard and poor produced his graph and the graph is whichever countries would be most affected if Britain was to leave and the countries were barely got it while Ireland and then motor then Luxembourg then Cyprus and then Switzerland these are all small switzerland doesn't get a vote because it's not in a union then belgium the netherlands and finally spain is affected by the tourism but to be honest not having to look after the health care of our elderly is probably equals it out it doesn't affect the big countries of europe we said things like oh but germany cent sales 10% of its cars to us i how many cars do you see we're gonna buy from germany now that we close down the plant in Swindon and we're closing down others we're still with the by 10 percent if not 15 percent from Germany it's just that we'll be buying their little ones and we didn't realise why did we not realize we had no bargaining position because we're great because we've told it's cool to wear great one other places left European community that place is Greenland they spent three years negotiating they had 56,000 people they came to a deal and their deal was that we still send 500 euros a year for every child to Greenland because they need some help with their education and they still have to write to come live from work in here because they can get Danish citizen see what did the European community get in return got fish access to fishing we don't even have fisheries that are worth bargaining over I would not have understood they'll believe this until we went through a years of negotiation why do we have a 588 page document which nobody seems to like which only contains 115 words about the entire finance industry 150 words that says but think about it later it's remarkable and it's an education we are learning about ourselves very quickly Trinity College Cambridge tents outside the gates of Trinity College Cambridge which is collagen in the UK almost at the end what kind of things can happen this would never happen I think without breaks it these are the increasing shares of the vote at general elections and I talked to you earlier about what happened in 1945 this is at Lee at the bumbling old man can't do a speech bit posh crap leader manages to get landslide in 45 but them Italy has 10 years they've been a war and so on let's dream forward his foot doing really really badly here's Tony doing what looks like family well but after 18 years of conservative rule Tony then lose his votes he then lose his votes at the federal election Gordon Brown comes in now admittedly Gordon Brown had to deal with the aftermath of the worst economic disaster actually now worst in 1929 but he managed his leaves a fervor 6.2 percent of the vote ed Miliband comes in and Edie does brilliantly 1.4 percent positive move to Ed is really good compared to the track record of Baron and Blair only you'd have to win at least ten general elections in a row to form a government and then this man who can't do a talk who doesn't believe in nuclear Armageddon gets 9.6% that was out of the rain range of possibilities of everything that's ever happened this is again looking at swing this is the swing of April May June July 2017 I've drawn 2000 graphs of that kind every political party every poll we've ever heard nothing has ever happened like that before that fast until the break see party you've just beaten Corbin at least in the polls in the last couple of weeks we are in completely uncharted territories anything can happen the one fascinating thing for labor is when you win you disappoint so labour lost in the early 50s okay they're held on here but they lost folks disappointed because you can never actually give people what you promised in your manifesto but you get this shift and then either win you may well be disappointed in him but you're not disappointed in a Labour government that isn't delivering what he promised to deliver because there is no Labour government there not to deliver you don't notice when things change because they change all around you we think now is normal we don't think of ourselves as the most far-right country of Europe but you've forgotten that only ten years ago we were celebrating bankers party in the City of London spending 30,000 pounds on the bottle of champagne all that's gone now we worry about a fire in a block of flats in West London in a way we wouldn't have worried about the fire and we were we particularly about a fire in that block of flats because of where it was near to because you can actually stick a camera and get the frontage of million pound properties with the flats in the background last graph I think if you don't believe we're awed we are currently spending around about 36 percent of our GDP on public services a few other countries outside of Europe be the same the labor manifest Cepeda up to 38 just below Spain Finland France Denmark Belgium Austria Sweden Italy Portugal Norway Germany Netherlands if you want a health service that works if you want schools that work if you want publication that works if you want to decent society you pay for it if you don't pay for it you get crap it isn't due to the immigrants it's really that simple geographical comparisons I've got no time for that and I polish you no more graphs I will tell you this one inequality here international test of ability in maths not done at age 16 done later 16 to 24 and the two countries where people can't do maths the most or the UK and USA why because examinations are really really important here and in the USA because USA and UK really divided countries if you're listening to Angus Deaton and his colleagues last few days so it really really matters what grade you get because it's a difference between having to work cleaning all your life or being paid to sit in an office and complain how terrible it is to get 25 or 40 thousand pounds a year because the emails you get and it all depends on whether you get to see a GCSE maths 1a or Daystar same in America so we teach people to get season AIDS and they stars what we don't teach people is how to do maps and we don't even understand that we teach people to maximize their mark on a particular day I could give you some GCSE maths questions now but I am out of time and you almost all of you would not do very well it's not your fault it's the British education system because we're such an unequal country Europe at night the lights are not going out all over Europe the far-right is falling in popularity more than it is rising in most European countries it is just never report it when Golden Dawn go down in Greece we don't report it when they come up we report it looks like a farm i person will become president of austria we report it when it goes down we then report it the mainland is doing fine the mainland has discovered that its borders aren't no more because we've done a wonderful service we have demonstrated that you cannot easily just leave you know it didn't necessarily have to be us it's probably gonna be somebody but in a way we have done a favor that we've done another favor we're about to begin to spread out the banking industry of Europe across the continent it didn't need to be so concentrated in London we have over 3,000 bankers now paid over a million euro most still a year paid over a million euros each year because they said if they weren't paid that much they'd move somewhere else to work the next highest number was a hundred and ninety seven in Germany there are no banking jobs for them to go to the Swiss bankers are paid half as much but the great news now is that their Bluffs being hold the jobs are moving the banks are moving the Japanese banks have already moved the CEOs the CE OS and the capital they just left the back office in London and it doesn't matter what we do now they're going because they've lost the trustee Britain and that isn't necessarily a bad thing our only problem is to between now and when we sort ourselves out we're going to need some money and as banking drops the pound drops we get more tourists universities are the second best thing to the banks that we actually have for export earning we call it overseas students we fought we were the second biggest arms trade in the world it turns out with a six and dropping rapidly what do you they certainly want to be an arms trader but hey things are getting a bit desperate it's going to be fairly tough for the next five ten or fifteen years so what the question is whether you can make that five years tough rather than 15 years tough and weather out of this if the young vote and we will find out again in two weeks time will they actually vote for something radically different and tell people of my age and older sorry I know you had our interests at heart but you didn't understand it's not your fault you didn't understand it was in your textbooks at school and your textbooks lied to you thank you very much [Applause]