eSign Job Report 2020 Made Easy

Esign job report 2020

uh we're expecting one and a half million what what do you think is going to happen so i i see quite a bit of downside into these numbers i'm projecting no growth essentially in the labor market in the month of july i think we'll see decent growth in manufacturing construction but the service sector is looking a little bit shaky when you look at high frequency data you know the evidence is overwhelmingly pointing to a sharp slowdown if not a contraction and service hiring and i think state and local governments uh is where you're gonna see renewed weakness as well um and i think that's caused by you know a lot of people blame it on a coveted resurgence i think that's part of the story but i think another story is is obviously the fiscal cliff and and you know in the jobs picture in particular the fact that the ppp loans which um did allow companies to rehire a lot of workers i think that money is essentially run out and and i think you're going to see some renewed layoffs as a result of that yeah michelle um adp kind of muddied the water this week uh with it's well below expectations number do you think we'll we'll meet the one and a half million or exceed it or how do you think things are going to come in today our numbers are very much in line with adp and within yet his numbers we're we have a job gain of just 200 000 so essentially a stall in in the recovery i agree with um everything that he just said i think you know i just think even stepping back it was always going to be the case when you go from a near shutdown of activity to a sudden you know or reopening that you're going to see a sudden snapback and and you know i was enthusiastic as as anybody around the strength of the recovery of the numbers rebounding in maine in june but always cautioning that you know the first kind of rebound or that you know the first uh recovery and jobs you know that that's pretty easy you'd expect that and and always worry that even without a pickup in in uh infection rates you know because of some longer term damage that's been done know getting all the way back was going to be was going to be more difficult so i also think in addition to a number of these factors which may be a headwind you know for for july that in general to extrapolate that initial bounds all the way back to a full true v-shaped recovery i i think that was probably a little over optimistic interesting you know annetta andrew talked earlier sort of when we were having a conversation about market reactions to to certain events how much is it a binary event for the job market to a vaccine and until we get that you're not going to really be able to even come close to a full recovery oh absolutely but i would say even post-vaccine uh we shouldn't be hoping for a quick return to you know the level of employment that we sell prior to coven uh by our estimates we've already lost about 12 percent of small businesses that's roughly five and a half million jobs that are just not coming back you're gonna have to rebuild them organically through new business creation or expansion of the businesses that do survive and that's just not something that happens overnight michelle it's hard to it's hard to look at the numbers and think that there was a three and a half percent unemployment rate and that we added seven million jobs in in may and june but that we lost 22 million in march and april it tells a story of just how far we still have to go and the challenges that still exist yeah and i think that's you know kind of what i was alluding to i think you can you can recoup a good portion of those uh you know those job losses and again there's been even a stall in that because of uh of the rise in infections and i think growing worries of a of a so-called w recovery i mean i think when you were talking about market reaction the risk here is that when when you see a disappointment if you were to see numbers along the numbers that we're talking about it will raise concerns um that that we may have a so-called somewhat double dip in the second half of the year it will really focus i think attention on the assumption that you know that we're sort of past it and of course as uncertainty uh increases over the outlook it can it can feed on itself it can lead to more cautious behavior on part of both businesses with respect to hiring and consumers with their willingness to spend you know um whether it's out of savings or out of current income so so you know i do think the um unfortunately there is a sort of a reality check here about really this idea again of how long because of economic scarring it would take to get the economy back to pre-covered levels you