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Fax motley conditional
welcome to Motley Fool money thanks for being here I'm your host Chris Hill and joining me in studio this week for Motley Fool one Jason Moser from Motley Fool Income Investor James early and four million dollar portfolio mr. charlie travers good to see you guys see you creamy got the latest what's that insert crowd noise exactly exactly last week at American University we had from a live audience yeah we're back in the studio we don't have the live audience we do have the latest numbers in retail we've got the latest phone from samsung and the latest payout from one big dividend stock we're going to talk about the financial benefits of skipping work with retirement expert Robert broke camp and as always got a few stocks on our radar but just as last week guys we're going to begin with the market in general this week the Dow index hit a record new high had its longest winning streak since 1996 and Jason despite the great run you still got people out there who are saying either this is all about to end it's where it's a bubble it's it's the dot-com bubble all over again or you've got some people and maybe the most prominent Jim Cramer on CNBC saying now he's not the time to get into the market if you're not in right now stay out until the market drops what do you think yeah given the last five years excuse me I I can understand the trepidation there I mean it's not like we have have seen just sort of a sort of a normal market behavior here and the rising tide has lifted a lot of boats here the stock market is really words that if you're looking for returns that's the best place to go I I do think there's still plenty of buying opportunities out there I just think that we as investors have to be a bit more discriminating than then before but when you have reputa reputable investors out there like Warren Buffett or marks from oaktree capital they're still buying stocks they're still calling stocks the best the best investments out there I mean they're not they're not just paying us lip service they're not just saying that I mean they mean it they're pretty smart guys as well again I think we just have to be we have to look a little bit more closely but still plenty of opportunities out there James you agree with that yeah the facet anything about economics about society about investing is that we create our own reality so we have enough people on board with the idea that we're in a bull market with the idea that the economy is going to uplift it will it will it's just sort of like everybody in a traffic jam stepping on the gas at the same time sort of I would not be surprised if the stock market went sideways a little bit from here that's why I'm afraid of dividend stocks i mean i say that because i writed in a newsletter but also because i believe dividend stocks will help in that kind of scenario to market timing with james early yeah exactly Charlie no but but I think we all agree that making these short-term predictions about the market is feudal it doesn't matter that the dow is at all time high gives you no particular insight as to what it's going to do over the next few months and i think all of us at the table here our business focused investors there's always stocks to buy no matter what day or month you're in and we all have stuff we like right now and maybe stocks on our radar will tell you about it get your market we will get to that shortly but what I reading email we got from Brian can in Atlanta Georgia he writes have been hearing some pushback from some media outlets that the Dow index is not the greatest or even a good indicator of financial health just want to get your guys take on this Jason I mean I agree with that totally it's why we tend to look at the sp500 first and foremost but if you look at the Dow today the only original component remaining there is is GE but I mean companies you know gia whether it's Citigroup or bank of america travelers insurances in there that's fine but it's not a very wide swath it's not very representative of our overall economy when you look at something like the S&P 500 it is much more so and that's why we tend to look at it from that perspective and mathematically the dow is what's called the price weighted index which I I'll save you for 25 minutes and just say Google that the S&P is a market cap weighted index which is a little bit more representative of the reality of the market in terms of size so Jason just to wrap up you talked about the need for investors at this time to be a little bit more selective where are some of the areas you're looking at as an investor and it doesn't have to be specific companies if there are industries that you're looking at to find value because not everything is as cheap as it once was in the stock market certainly in the last couple of years no it's not but I still think there are plenty of opportunities out there in energy in particular I mean I think that given our even our situation the glut of supply of natural gas that we have indeed thoughts that we may become a natural gas exporter here over the over the coming years I think there are plenty of opportunities out there in energy and I also do believe there are opportunities in retail you just have to be very very picky and I think look towards the greater trends in retail for example ecommerce well for those companies that are investing in their e-commerce operations nordstrom comes to mind their can invest about a billion over the next five years you know look for the bigger trends but but all in all that's how we mitigate that risk as investors is keep on investing in the good times and the bad ecommerce internet may be big one day you're saying internet Thursday night in New York City samsung unveiled its new Galaxy s4 smartphone Charlie there were some new features including the ability to translate nine languages smart scrolling and I tracking software which seems kind of cool and awesome for me anyway mildly creepy but what you think some of the new features are a little dubious they sound cool on paper and then when you actually use the phone they might not work that great so we'll have to see when this actually goes alive in the world how well some of these things like the air gesture swiping actually work but i think you know samsung is the global leader in phone sales their galaxy s3 is the best-selling android phone and I think launching it at this particular time though the successor device is perfect because they have no high-profile competition fighting with them right now and I think they're just going to sell tens of millions of units like they did with the s3 because of that might not sway any of the die-hard iphone users but that's not necessarily what they need to do they just need to keep growing the Android ecosystem and they're going to be just fine and those in that consumer base well and as we were talking about before the show the timing really is whether they meant to or not the timing of this event was brilliant because apples not going to have a new device lunch anytime soon we may be you know six months at the earliest from something like that yeah that's completely right and same on the windows and you're not going to see anything till later this year either not that that's a huge threat so they've really got the new phone world all of themselves for at least a few months and that's a great spot to be in where do you put apple in all of this at the moment because from a stock perspective it's down more than thirty five percent since last fall and it's it's there are people who are just I guess when I look at apple and not a shareholder on the one hand I see an innovative company a great track record and piles and piles of cash on hand but at the other end of the spectrum you've got a lot of people with good reason saying yeah the cool kid on the block now is samsung samsung really pushes the envelope on the hardware capabilities and i think it's important for Apple to not fall too far behind and be viewed as a second-tier caliber phone I think when the new phone comes out later this year they're just going to have to at least match they don't have to they're never the latest and greatest hardware they combine that with the best user experience an ecosystem but they can't be viewed as falling behind Samsung this week the Federal Reserve conducted its annual stress tests of the major banks 17 out of 18 passed Ally Financial was the loan bank not to pass James a couple of things that stood out to me anyway city had the top score pretty good when you consider that last year City barely passed but now you have banks like Bank of America Wells Fargo JPMorgan Chase saying that hey now that they've passed their gonna put their capital to work they're going to be buying back shares they're going to be raising dividends this seems across the board like a genuinely good thing yeah Chris in a way it was a triumph of the week I mean it did the bank said that had formerly had some of the most problems seemed to look the best here Citigroup City Bank of America did pretty well the Fed used to phrase conditional non objection when it described Goldman and JPMorgan what does that mean sounds like kind of phrase a dead will use describing someone whose daughter is dating right I mean yeah you know it kinda it's like a semi rejection that I can't kill him yeah yeah conditionally not object in a BB&T and I'll I obviously got got rejected more directly I think though the Fed seem to be less concerned with loans more concerned with with derivatives in this overall scheme it's still not enough to get me off the couch and make me want to invest in American banks though I was just going to say that's it that's where I was going to go with this because it seems like because I know that you more the more so than the other two guys at the table dividends have a sway over you but it seems like even with that there's still the whole black box thing going on with most of these banks I know we talked about Wells Fargo being a little bit more transparent in their dealings but it just seems like for the other major investment banks there it's really hard to know what's going on and for dividends grace for comparison i think Bank of America and Citigroup are paying what like a penny per per quarter something small like that so we're still not anywhere near real vivid in tears we're not in James early to we're nowhere near changer coming up GE gives shareholders 18 billion reasons to smile starrett here you're listening to Motley Fool money
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