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[Music] hey this is Don Kaufman and you are watching the Theo trade weekend update for November 15th 2019 once again we're discussing a fearless marketplace yet at the same time you see that there's just this myriad of risks out there if you're kind of in tune with markets you're pretty sure that any second like you know a tweet is gonna come on the horizon and just Rock the markets by you know three to five percent and that's the fear that you have to deal with especially on an intraday basis the other thing that we have to deal with as traders is the fact that you know no one really likes the idea of buying markets all-time highs you know that's again it's a question that I kind of get day in and day out you know people are like who who is buying this marketplace literally at an all-time high and the answer is it's more hedging activity that's driving us a little higher per se than it is you know somebody going out there and being like wow I I really I really gotta buy this marketplace you know at at 3,100 and change so once again we're gonna close effectively at the all-time highs but there have been some really interesting developments in this last week of trade which if you look back at this last week of trade you know last weekend I kind of call it Groundhog trading session well there have been again some significant and occurrences one of those happen to be none other than the bond market so the bond market which was getting smoked last week it rebounded a bit this week and it has everything to do with keeping the ten-year right in around probably that 2% threshold in a few minutes we'll show you a couple of charts on that one but because the bonds they really got up right to that threshold of about 2% and kind of backed off again what that effectively did we had rising interest rates last week this week rates kind of backed off or even stalled out that effectively completely stalled out the financials and the financials are in large part what really kind of drove this last leg of the rally so at this point in time all of a sudden the financials count them out and with the financials you can count out the Russell as well because most people are not familiar with the Russell is filled with kind of mid-cap like regional banks all right so the Russell being filled with banks the Russell stalls out doesn't do a whole lot this week in fact net net the Russell is gonna be massively unchanged throughout the course of this week the financials count them out okay so what gives what is causing now in this marketplace to continue to rise to the upside well that's actually but we're gonna detail here in a moment is we're gonna look at a couple of individual stocks you almost feel by looking at these stocks you almost feel they have just completely they being you know fund managers traders people have completely run out of things to buy take a look at Apple obviously people have looked at a chart on Apple here's one maybe it's not on your radar screen Lulu Lulu Lemon come on yoga pants those things are never going out of style right take a look at Lulu I mean Lulu is breaking to the upside like you think it was Roku if you haven't looked at Roku that's one worth worth looking at Tesla Tesla once again is in play following its you know last earnings announcements even Microsoft we're getting some mega market caps that are breaking to the upside specifically Apple and Microsoft and right now that is that's it people that's what's carrying the S&P 500 add a little health care in their health care had a astounding trading session specifically today and that is the makings of the rally inside of the S&P 500 this week but the rally this week it's not nearly as far as you would have anticipated in fact we're gonna get very SPX specific here in a moment you're gonna find out that yes everybody's talking about all-time highs but for the most part we kind of meandered most of this trading week and kind of listless lis drifted if you will to the upside specifically on Apple and Microsoft again moving forward right it's still it's all about the bond marketplace the bond marketplace and specifically the ten-year again we're gonna detail those here momentarily along with quite a number of trade ideas stay with us and enjoy but we're about to show in a couple of charts to the charts and trades we go once again a fearless market ignores an absolute myriad of risks that are on the horizon people we just belong to this negative gamma climbed to the upside but one of the first things that I want to point out here in in quite some detail has everything to do with what I often term the mother of all products and the other mother of all products being none other than the SPX I've been talking extensively and we've been talking about this for years which is the e/m which is the expected move but the efficiency of the expected move in the last few trading weeks it's like nothing we have ever seen before you know people look at this rally and they're like it's the most astounding thing I've ever seen but it is more orderly okay than we've ever seen prior to this and when I say orderly again I'll just give you a quick example the expected move this last week of trade that's the week that literally the marketplace just closed nine minutes ago right we were expecting about a $29 an 80 cent move what was the actual move well you can see the market play is closed right there 31:20 right 30 120 the edge right there that edge is 31 23 you have to recognize this is a $3,100 product okay and we're closing within what a few points are rounding error away from the edge of the expected move it's not just this week it's the previous week where we literally touched it close just off it it's the previous week we're again we were outside by about 8 bucks it's the previous week where we literally closed on the edge of the expected move okay it is uncanny how effective the edge of the expected move has been on a week to week basis but as I was saying a moment ago in the video portion I was like you know people are talking about it's a blistering rally to the upside okay quite frankly the marketplace did and and quote me on this one nothing literally this was the line where we actually ended last week the marketplace did nothing this week until effectively on Friday when it decided to take a shot at the upper edge of the expected move now that's what it comes down to a whole lot of nothing inside of the SPX followed by what the marketplace is actually finishing less than 1% to the upside specifics of the S&P s now before I go any further next week okay and I don't have the expected moves drawing yet on the SPX chart and we will be drawing these here momentarily okay the expected move is coming in a little bit higher by the way it's still in flux because technically technically the SPX these options are still open okay 15 minutes after the close so they still have about four minutes left to trade and it's still kind of centering that expected move it's somewhere around thirty two dollars in change which again this is an important takeaway okay because what we have here is a marketplace that's going up and typically when the markets going up what is happening to implied volatilities implied volatility is going down but last week we had a $29 move this coming week we'll have about a 30 to almost $33 move why is the volatility expanding out well most likely the marketplace anticipates a bit more risk you know we can go over to the calendar we can dig into this okay but net net I would I would take the assumption and this actually leads us back to of course the title over here fearless market ignores a myriad of risks I think the marketplace is anticipating okay highly anticipating news specifically out of the the China deal so trade more more trade war talk coming this next week I mean listen if they're gonna get it done they're gonna get it done before Thanksgiving they're gonna get it done either this weekend or they're gonna get it done effectively what next week and that could be a just a tweet to astok kind of week now let's kind of continue forward and then we'll start to show some of the other sectors in here the bonds let's actually jump over to bonds for just a moment the bonds they recovered okay and they recovered in a decent way so the bonds were getting absolutely slaughtered last week it was the big topic of conversation and the bonds kind of recovered why was it such a big topic of conversation because it's driving the interest rate right so this is something again I detailed last week as the interest rates literally last week they jumped and they jumped just shy okay of about 2% now 2% and a lot of people tell you that's a critical threshold now I would actually agree with that you know when you start to get that ten-year above 2% everybody gets nervous about what everything from housing okay to the consumer to credit card debt I mean every type of debt is pretty much resonating off of this 10-year so we get close to it right we get close to it and the moment we get close to it we backed off again now the moment that the interest rates okay start to cool back off what does it do to the overall marketplace and one of the answers is the financials are going to stall out so when I start talking about financials what do you want to look at okay well we can actually cruise down specifically to the X LF the XLF totally stalled this week okay when I say it's complete and total stall I'm not kidding over here the financials totally stalled out they are now sitting below the 30 mark now this the financials are what carried the S&P s if we take a look again the espys okay you're like oh but this is still a pretty good leg up yeah but the financials actually carried us this far this last real boost to the upside specifically today's trading session this was all about mega market cap it was Apple okay it was Microsoft even Facebook and Google got in the ring this was the monsters of tech but I'm gonna tell you right now the monsters attacked they're not gonna get it done they're not going to take the espys to a completely new leg higher okay looking at the monsters of tech you know stuff like Google which totally broke to the upside okay stuff like again Apple which Apple has already had a wicked breakout to the upside again I'll show these in detail these again a little bit later when you start to look at them you'll you'll actually recognize again this could actually be a little bit of a last gasp in a number of stocks not necessarily the entire marketplace yet because again I'm the argument that I'm trying to give you here is that the ESPYs specifically okay hinge much more on the financials and those financial stall the other thing that you need to be mindful of is the rustle the rustle is completely flat on the week in fact when I apply auto expected moves all right here's some auto expected moves as I just applied them when I say auto expected moves the reason I'll use this from time to time it shows you this is the start of the week right there as the start of the week net net what do you have in the rustle I'm actually gonna close down very mildly or as I said a moment ago if they're massively unchanged on the week as were again if I pull up the financials okay the financials closed ever so slightly down in the week again think of the financials and the rustle most of the time kind of moving a little bit in like lockstep from a sector standpoint though things are getting a lot more interesting over here because they have the financials that stall the Russell's flat on the week and then the energy sector okay let's not forget about the energy sector the energy sector was wicked just wicked lately to the upside it back down a little bit last week and actually continue to see some sell-side activity once again if I apply auto expected moves one of the things that people probably were not aware of okay after seeing some stellar movement okay to the upside inside of the energy sector the energy sector for a brief moment okay specifically yesterday on Thursday it cracked to the downside of the expected move obviously though you're thinking to yourself well who cares who cares it's not impacting the espys yeah but you should care because it will right it absolutely will not energy alone you have the Russell now flattening out okay you have the financials flattening out you have energy backing off okay this is another one that I'm actually keying into a little bit here happens to be Walmart okay Walmart oh it's so fun discussing Walmart right Walmart passed through earnings wicked wicked reversal though inside of Walmart in fact on an intraday basis has seen nothing but sell-side over the last two trading sessions again after releasing earnings and cracking to 125 is now actually trading at 118 on a percentage basis it's a pretty astounding move and it bring into question all right the consumer and specifically consumer staples which actually brings up the Excel P consumer staples now the thing about consumer staples and these are largely impacted this particular ETF is largely impacted by Walmart which i think is somewhere around like nine percent of the consumer staples off the top of my head but the biggest constituent of this group is like Procter gamble if you take a look okay we'll go to a quick glance Procter gamble Procter gamble it hasn't had a bad week nevertheless okay in consumer staples you really have to think about Walmart and again the impact that's going to have in just the days and trading days to come to the XL P as such I've actually taken a couple of in out spreads specifically in in Excel P okay you can see unloaded I've got inventory I've got an inventory here bearish inventory specifically on the Excel P looking at this from the perspective let me let me give you a little bit of insight okay I'm actually standing back and saying that listen I know I missed Walmart because I didn't want to be involved in the earnings no one saw that wicked reversal coming so I'm late to the party right so instead of actually being late to the party here in Walmart okay I'll be earlier to the party inside of the Excel P if Walmart's going to continue to take a hit which it looks like it's going to then no doubt that the Excel P will start to be impacted and that's why I'm putting an in/out spread inside of the XL p the other one that really is a standout you know I was talking about mega market cap kind of carrying this marketplace okay you really have to look at Amazon this week because it kind of fell off everybody's radar screen nevertheless it also had a statistically substantial move it actually broke substantially outside of expected move so it's kind of become mr. Toad's Wild Ride inside of the last couple of trading sessions again in the very near term there's been some heavy sell side activities specifically to Amazon again calling into question a number of aspects now Amazon's in the news continuously okay it's in the news fur it didn't get the government contract if you can get this okay but is this again is this the begin of a weakening consumer that's the question that you are kind of left with in the in the trading sessions because again if it were just Walmart that were down yeah wouldn't question it but it's also Costco okay Costco is playing a role in this Costco is actually off again some some recent highs and just backing off again maybe seeing a little bit of a reversal in the days to come so you got Walmart you got Costco you got Amazon taking a hit alright let's actually switch gears before we look at a couple of stocks the VIX subsides but volatility in the VIX options is on the rise again VIX subsiding what does that mean alright well let's actually break it down for a second the VIX here's the VIX way down people we actually are back down to the 12 level in the VIX know everybody that looks the VIX goes wow that's really really low that's the best you could do wow that's really really low first and foremost it's not that low if you open up like a three-year on the VIX okay I'll go back in here to 2017 when the market was hitting all-time highs okay and we had a VIX of what eight nine continuously there were there were months when this thing didn't get above ten literally months didn't get above ten so net net of VIX is at 12 but here's the interesting thing okay the VIX itself is down but back month volatility when I say back month volatility volatility of the future right is is still hanging pretty tough let's look at February for example if you look at February it's still at fifteen point two so what are you actually looking at okay so the VIX is VIX by the way is 30 day volatility but if you look at the very near term the very near term here inside of the spiders spiders near-term everything's about 10 percent right the back month is sitting we're about 15 percent you realize that there's like a 50 percent in some case like volatility discrepancy between front and back month I mean you go a little further out in time go I mean a little further out in time you start looking like a hundred plus days out in the option market you're all the way like a sixteen volatility I mean we're talking 50 or 60 percent and and this is not like you know if you saw a $10 stock versus a $15.00 stock you'd say yeah whatever it's $10 stock versus a $15 stock yeah but in this case we're talking about volatility you the entire S&P 500 which says here and now nothing is ever going to happen and in the future they're telling you like no the world is possibly going to come apart at the seams now it's always like that like this is is normal but it's exaggerated right now you know one of the reasons that I'm the the topic for for this weekend's update is very specific fearless market ignores a myriad of risks it's not completely ignoring the risks okay and when you see a low VIX when you see a low VIX I think you're really being misled let me show you also why you're being less misled by the low VIX because the VIX options themselves are actually having a rise in volatility so we're that where that kind of comes into play right here look at the volatility of the VIX options this is the V VIX the vivix V VIX and if you take a look at the VIX what does it see it sees a very continual rise that is professional traders are actually buying VIX options by buying VIX options they're actually raising the implied volatility of the VIX itself so here's a crate kind of catch-22 I told you there's a whole lot of risks on the horizon here you have the VIX all right okay the VIX that's literally Oh that's coming down okay but then you have but dicks ball and it's oh that's going up where you left your left somewhere between a rock and a hard place in the middle over here I mean we're on a giant teeter-totter just waiting for the next tweet that's either going to rock our world or totally rock our world but again you have to be very mindful when the professional world is telling you something right now okay if they're telling you it doesn't matter that the markets going to all-time highs okay they're actually buying up some volatility very quietly in the backdrop of this marketplace doesn't matter that the VIX is going lower okay it just matters that the professionals are actually hedging off some of those risks all right onward and upward now we move into what we call stuck shop all right I've convinced right now that the marketplace has run out of well crap to buy because there's nothing else left out there what do we actually buy in these days you have to take a look at this for what it's worth go take a look at GE okay this thing is like a launch trajectory to the upside now I always like to dictate where I am carrying positions there's no question I am carrying a position inside of GE I'm long a thousand shares of GE selling premium against my GE all right so I am long GE another stock again when I say running out of things to buy this does not does not indicate that this is a stock per se to buy right now I just wanted to show again a number of players it's like you know GE was thought for years to be like the dog of the Dow okay well they can't get enough of it I mean when you start looking at this though on a percentage basis these are astounding moves I mean this thing was only up ten eleven percent just what two weeks ago three weeks ago it's now at forty three percent on a year-to-date basis stand back people okay not done go into what what else we got all right ultra group altria group which again I am carrying a position yes I am carrying multiple positions in here I am actually long again I am long mo long mo here's another one after the what after some of the debacle with vaping here's a stock that was down almost 20% that is now effectively what well almost flat on the years almost 20 percent run in a very short period of time but that's why I say you almost feel like they're running out of things to buy here's one and again I'm not necessarily saying I would put a trade specifically into mo right now another one okay happens to be none other than Caterpillar in terms of Caterpillar or huge run to the upside now let me clarify something I got cat fever the opposing way I'm actually in short positions on Caterpillar and continue to this is a like a love/hate position love to hate on caterpillar right now I've actually been in a short caterpillar position for years now and it has been a very profitable position because we initiated the position all the way back in January early January of 2018 and I've actually written caterpillar short but when I talk about things that there's nothing goodbye caterpillar may have already rolled over this is absolutely still an applicable short position for you and last on this list of like when I say they've run out of things to buy you really you have to look at at health care now this was mentioned health care was mentioned by well politics the administration today was all over it health care just had an absolute breakout day you know if you're looking at the ESPYs and you see that they're up 20 okay and then I talked about financials aren't doing anything okay and it's all about mega market cap well what gave them a little boost is the health care sector today there's no question about it health care is up over two percent this is one we're gonna be looking for a number of positions in the days and weeks to come all right other positions that I've actually taken on all right here want a hideous beast right there okay this is actually the marijuana ETF now listen no fundamentals push them all aside okay the volume inside of this ETF has been nothing less than phenomenal in comparison okay this was actually pull up a full full you know inception chart over here this is the lowest point since the MJ ETF has been offered now listen I've looked at tilray and I've looked at you know CGC and canopy growth there's no way I would invest in any individual okay marijuana stock for growth value or otherwise but this ETF right now it begs me to take a position and I've done just that I've actually gone out there aren't even weeklies in here I've gone out I've actually sold a few puts and I've actually purchased a few shares in here net net I want to get long somewhere around about the 15 level so how do I get long with 15 level I sell the 16 puts I'd actually sold those things earlier today alright in fact again I'm kind of staggering into positions but I put these things on for right around 70 cents that's pretty much where they're trading right here right now if I get put the stock and by the way to get put stock now cost absolutely nothing at most brokerage firms because there's no more exercise or assignment fees so if I could put the stock so be it I want to own the stock I'd get put the stock minus the foot that I sold it would get me long at about 15 30 just I also went out and bought a few hundred shares okay next one I am looking at yeah this one's getting beaten up as well uber nobody has wanted a touch goober I do I have no positions in here I continually have tried to sell puts in here okay I'm trying to get long uber somewhere around the 25 level so that's something I'll continue to work all right another one over here Cisco I'm out I'm out of the contest right so in terms of Cisco I have been short Cisco since April guy in the 55 plus level I have now exited my Cisco position as it actually dropped all the way down to the 45 level in fact we exited on Thursday hour duration position in the 44 handle all right okay last couple of stalks over here none other than Lulu Lulu okay this is not an easy one to talk about because I am actually in a short position in Lulu and getting run over over here you would think that they have reinvented the yoga pants has a lot to do obviously what's going on inside of Nike versus Amazon as well nevertheless Lululemon bursting to the upside I'm gonna look to reinitiate a very mild short position in here nevertheless I'm gonna look to reinitiate a short position as this thing is effectively broken to the upside and last but definitely not least by the way I was mentioning how Lulu and Roku apparently have a whole lot in common more than maybe we know you know you would think like Lululemon what are they like they're not just reinventing yoga pants but you know they're curing the entire world Roku the same thing broke ooh looks like a wicked short squeeze and last but not least none other than Tesla which is it's not on your radar screen its back in the game Tesla is once again and you'll have to open up a three-year to effectively see this approaching all-time highs this is something that we have very successfully traded in the past and will continue to look for more opportunities inside of Tesla in this next week of trade listen there's a lot to think about inside of this weekend's update just keep in mind all right if you're not hedged get hedge this marketplace just fears it feels fearless okay it's ignoring all the risks that are on the the very short term horizon but at the same time you just feel like you're that one tweet away from like you know utter and sudden destruction well yeah keep that in mind because it's real thanks everybody for joining us here at Theo trade have a wonderful weekend bye bye