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Good afternoon dear friends. This is "History Lessons with Tamara Eidelman". Today we will talk about 2022 from the point of view of history. Outside the window, unfortunately, there is no snow, there are no Christmas trees covered with snowflakes. It's going to rain outside my window, a thunderstorm will start soon. Well, a very characteristic background for talking about the formidable 2022. Thanks to everyone who made this lecture possible, our sponsors on YouTube, to our patrons on Patreon, to those who support us on the Boosty platform. Thanks in advance to those who will not forget to like or repost us today, who subscribed to our channel, who clicked the bell to be notified of new lectures. Today the old year ends and a new one begins. Every year, as far as I can remember, everyone says: “Oh, what a hard year this was. Let him leave soon, the next one will be better." This, unfortunately, is such a banal truth. All the time we think that next year will be better, but this one was terrible. Well, I guess most of my viewers would agree that few years have been as bad as this one. And if last year it seemed to us that 2021 was terrible, 2020, then 2022 surpassed them. Of course, we hope that 2023 will still be easier, but who knows. But today we will talk not so much about our hopes or disappointments, but about history. Truth in the future. I am often asked what will happen to Russia next? And how will the war end? What are the forecasts? Well, I'm a historian, I'm not a futurist, not a political scientist and I can't predict at all. The idea that our knowledge of history can help us predict the future, in my opinion, is completely wrong. We can say that there have been such mechanisms in history, and which of them will work tomorrow is a very difficult question. And I am absolutely convinced that there is no one predetermined line. If it were possible, having learned how history developed 100 years ago, to say that today it will develop like this, like that, how much simpler, and probably more primitive at the same time, our life would be. Well, alas or cheers, it's impossible. Therefore, we can only make some general assumptions, but this is not the task of the historian. But today I will try to do this. I am also often asked the following question: "What do you think will be written in future history books about our time, or about Putin, or about the war?” And so on and so forth. Well what can I say? The honest answer, of course, is I don't know, because you and I are inside an evolving system. And to assess it from the outside, and even more so to say how it is, what will happen next - this is almost unrealistic. But still, let's try. Let's try, again, based...