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the CNBC app global market news in one place customizable sections and personalized alerts stocks tracking interactive charts and Market insights all in your hands stay connected stay informed download the CNBC app today a very warm welcome to squ box I'm Steve Sedwick and these are your headlines Nissen and Honda going official with their merger talks in a deal that will create the world's third largest Auto with 30 trillion yen in sales Volkswagen shares hover around the flight line actually despite the German automaker striking a deal with labor unions over the 4 billion EUR worth of savings annually and averting further strikes AA is set to take over smaller arrival direct line in a deal worth £ 3.7 billion with the merger set to create the UK UK's largest home and motor insurer and US futures pointing higher as Traders gear up for a holiday shortened week for some whilst president-elect Donald Trump takes the spotlight as ever with a threat to seek us ownership of the Panama Canal the fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous highly unfair this complete ripoff of our country will immediately stop it's going to stop [Music] let's take another look at these markets and once again Europe cannot find a bid you've got a bid in the UK with a and uh di line you've got Volkswagen looking like it's got some form of deal to take out some form of capacity you've got Nissan and Honda talking about a deal would take out even more capacity you thought it might be something there for the European automakers and across the board it is is a nightmare to try and get any impossible to try and get a firm bid on the European market um I mentioned Aida on I just uh give you one or two of his flashes actually my job is to carry out turnaround plan return to profit and position this M for an integration with Honda um deal with Honda doesn't mean we can't make turnaround by ourselves but it's a complimentary collaboration to raise competitiveness absolutely right let's have a look at the sectors gaining we got any sectors in positive territory it's going to be hard to find Healthcare rallying 1.3 3% um I wonder if that's a Novo trade we'll have a look at that in a moment cuz Nova nordis what a pummeling it got and yeah it's very interesting they they they showed great efficacy of its latest drunk but it was nowhere near what the market wanted and thereo they got punished aggressively for noo NIS read Nvidia read any of these highly valued amazing growth drivers of 2024 anyway let's have a look at the sectors declining there are a lot of sectors declining today as well we have uh travel and Leisure down one I know there's quite so bad travel and Leisure there's a bit of weather over the weekend and he throw was his usual mess but um 1.9% I'm hoping at least one of the London airports is better today when I go up and make my journey to pick someone up media down 1.1% retail again retail is not the most alarmed sector in the world as you all know at the moment and um I can see a lot of retail names even the illustrious ones under a lot of pressure in that last minute scramble I've seen some big sales going on as well so the hopes of full price sales at this stage minimal I would suggest um 2 days before Christmas anyway let's move on uh president-elect Donald Trump says he will demand that the Panama Canal is returned to the United States if shipping rates are not reduced for American vessels now look back at the history of this this relationship it is very complicated relationship between Panama the canal owners the Canal builders and the United States as well uh speaking to supporters in Arizona Trump repeated his description of the water way as a quote vital National Asset listen in our Navy and commerce have been treated in very unfair and injudicious way the fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous highly unfair especially knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama I say very foolishly by the United States this complete ripoff of our country will iMed immediately stop it's going to stop the United States has a big invested interest in the secure efficient and reliable operation of the Panama Canal they're not the only ones who use the Panama Canal in case you were wondering as well if every nation and again I I I appreciate and I and you have to look into this there is a complicated history between Panama the owners the builders and the country and the United States have a look it's not compli at but it is complicated if you know what I mean and yet having said that if every nation who felt they were being overcharged then said oh yeah we might take ownership of it chaos anyway in response the Panamanian president Jose R Molino dismissed Trump's threat every square meter of the Panama Canal and its surroundings belongs to Panama and will continue to belong to Panama the sovereignty and Independence of our country are non-negotiable you want to see you want to read a good bit of fiction about it you've read the you read lar a lot haven't you the tayor of Panama have a look at that one that's all about this and the complicated relationship brilliant book for you for the list for you all anyway Mr Trump responded to those comments overnight it's back and forth isn't it uh responded to those comments overnight saying in a post on Truth social quote we'll see about that wow is that a threat what's really interesting as well is for a president who wants to extricate extricate the US and wants a degree of us isolationist he sure seems quite Imperial in some of his conversations Panama Greenland yeah the president's elect also used his truth Social account to suggest he wants Greenland under Us control in part of a post appointing the PayPal co-founder Ken Howry as his ambassador to Denmark Trump described us ownership as a territory as an absolute necessity having canceled a trip to Denmark during his first term when he was told that Queen Greenland was not for sale it's not for sale it's not for sale what if the Mexicans said oh we'll have a bit of the United States back what if the Russians said we'll have bits of the United States back what if the Spanish said no we'll have that what if the French said I didn't like that deal we did a couple hundred years ago we'll have a bit of that back I'm is that too extreme I don't know Trump also used his Arizona rally to respond to TA suggesting that ex-owner Elon Musk is the real president have fre didn't slip for me there as well he's seeing a lot of copy that says president musk at the moment as well anyway he didn't like that he didn't like the taunts as well about musk being seen as the real power behind the president's elect let's see what he said to that and all the different hoaxes and the new one is President Trump has seeded the presidency to Elon Musk no no that's not happening but elon's done an amazing job isn't it nice have smart people that we can rely on don't we want that he's not going to be president that I can tell you and I'm safe you know why he can't be he wasn't born in this country I I'll never get tired of that he can't be he wasn't born in this country H bad impression apologist Mr Trump uh president-elect Trump says he plans to nominate billionaire investor Steven Feinberg as Deputy defense secretary Feinberg is the co-founder of the private Equity Group cus Capital Management which has invested in defense contractors excuse me Mr Trump also picked former treasury official Steven Manan to chair the Council of economic advisers Moran accused the treasury Department of seeking to manipulate the economy during the election and damaging the fight against inflation uh through relying on short-term debt issuance he's also hit out at the Fed chair jome Pal's decision to support large fiscal stimul during the covid-19 pandemic uh incoming government efficiency Zar and ex-owner Elon Musk we have mentioned him much uh has added to the criticism of the FED describing the central bank as quote absurdly overstaffed in a post early this morning on X well let's get to Matt Ryan Global head of Market strategy at EB Matt going to be another quiet year ahead as well do you want to give us your broad brush um and with specific notable mention of trump and us is it it's never all about one thing but it feels like it is as well I mean when I'm off to World economic Forum in January I feel that the only question I need to ask all my guests is Trump so you tell me what you think well absolutely I think that's going to be the big Focus for investors in 2025 as you mentioned is is what this second Trump Administration will look like um I think the biggest unknown quantity surrounds the tariffs in particular we know those tariffs are coming but what we don't know is the extent of those tariffs and what sort of retaliation we might see um I think there's a sort of a general sense that we might see history repeat itself maybe if we look at 2017 actually we saw a lot of Bluster a lot of threats not so much action um but actually if you look at some of the appointments he's made in his cabinet U we know that Trump sees these tariffs as as a sort of two-way street um he uses them as a negotiating Ploy but also he sees beyond that um I think that's a big cause for concern for investors is one of the reasons why we think we see weaker growth next year as a result of these tariffs particularly in Asia given his Hardline let me try and paint a different side of it Matt as well because I I understand what you're saying and I we all have concerns about what it means but actually if Nations around the world have to spend more money to support their Industries and actually build up domestic and local capacity because they are concerned about what is being done in the states and getting left behind for instance defense this isn't necessarily a bad thing for markets for economic activity if you for instance we can see the Germans weakening their fiscal rules a degree to spend more money actually some form of galvanized economic activity from China to Berlin etc etc that's not a bad thing for the global economy well I think there's there's room there for opportunity I think you know possibly these tariffs could lead to to some of these countries seeking out alternate trade routes or or or promoting their their domestic um domestic production um but but these things take time um I think that's a big concern is that you know the these changes are not going to happen overnight um and if Trump goes big on those tariffs early that doesn't give countries that much time to to to sort of um to reconfigure and and to look at um Alternatives um what does it mean you are ah head of Market strategy give us your broad brush on what your advising your clients to do um well I mean so so we we're focusing predominantly on on currency markets so um our big Focus um going into this year is is surrounds the Trump Administration in particular we're looking at you know to what extent is the Trump presidency priced into the value of currencies um particularly when it comes to his tariffs you know to what extent a Market's bracing for higher US inflation higher fed rates for longer we would say to an extent a lot of that is priced in but but there's there's still some room to go we think in this in this this dollar rally in particular um again particularly if Trump goes big on the tariffs particularly if the FED um indicates to markets that actually maybe it's not ready to cut rates at all for for the next few months um we think there's a good risk that they could wait at least till mid 2025 to to to find out more details um of of what Trump 2.0 will look like and actually that there is some some room potentially for more dollar strength um it has been a year of progress for the dollar it's up 6.4% year to date on the dollar Index as well it's been a steady incline rather than a violent incline as well is that what you're calling in terms of upside for 2025 yes as I said I think we see we've seen most of this this Trump impact largely priced in and markets are now only pricing in I think it's around 30 35 basis points of cuts from the FED next year so actually I don't think there's massive room for for more dollar strength um but I think there is there's possibility we see further modest gains um but particularly if we were to see say slow down in GL Global growth if the US economy was continue to power ahead we we've seen some good data out of the labor market um this year if that was to continue into next year I think there's still reason for for dollar upside but but not to the extent that we've seen this year in your G10 FX Outlook which you've published uh pretty recently um where do you see the biggest declines in terms of a currency of course it's every currency is a pair but where could you see the most excitement because I can't help thinking that all the runes are pointing at an open door for a tough year for the Euro yeah absolutely we wouldn't say the euro is not our worst performer um for 2025 we think I think there's certainly there is plenty of plenty of downside there the recent data particularly the PMI numbers have been very poor um the biggest impact of Trump's tariffs on Europe would be weaker growth we think the ECB is going to continue to cut rates but but we're looking slightly further F we're looking at the New Zealand dollar I think that's particularly fragile given how doish the rbnz has been given how closely related they are to the Chinese economy which is not good news under Trump uh the other one interesting is actually Canadian dollar okay um again it's one that is you know we we're looking at those tariff threats by Trump on Canada that's particularly bad news given how closely linked that why has the market not priced that in already um I think there's a agree to that of it being priced in but but not fully because because if we look at 2017 of course Trump had all these threats um and they didn't materialize and I think there is a degree of the markets expecting that to be the same again this year okay Matt we're going to leave it there um I think I'm back on track on my timing so that's good news lovely to see you thank you very much indeed for coming into the city to join us today uh really nice to see you Matt Ryan who is global head of Market strategy at ebre right the United States Congress has averted a government shutdown actually there was a shut was it about 10 minutes or so it was it was anyway tiny by passing spending legislation on Saturday 38 minutes there we go 38 minutes after Government funding uh expired at midnight the Senate passed the bill with bipartisan support in an 85 to1 vote Congress did not include president-elect Trump's demand to raise the Deb SE even get rid of it remember that one uh meaning that government will need to approve more borrowing by the middle of next year coming up on the show we're going to hear from actor and investor simu Leu as part of cnbc's converge coverage that's coming up next [Applause] what's your Christmas movie everybody oh that yeah yeah elf surely yeah we have a tradition we always have to watch elf at Christmas uh Christmas Eve actually with a curry uh reason I mentioned that is because we are counting down to our special coverage of cnbc's converge live event in March the guest list already looks fantastic uh with a look now at San vad his conversation with simu why do I mention that because he has starred in movies including Greta gig's Barbie um but before acting uh he worked briefly for deoe who wouldn't want to be an actor after working for deoe um got a lot of friends there joking uh he's now putting his previous training to good use as a partner in a firm that invests in Asian-American and Pacific Islander startups well Sam spoke to him at the super return as opposed to the superhero see what did there return Asia Summit and started by asking how he decides which businesses to invest in you have to look at the inner Works into the business is the founder strong you know how's the product obviously all of the things that kind of make a great business a great business and then for me to in order for me to put my name behind it I think um you know I I would love for it to to be something uplifting or something representative of of our community I have a bit of a business background um I graduated with a degree in in um in Finance and Accounting and I worked at deoe for a shockingly short amount of time before I was fired um but I think you know getting into this world is a first of all a natural progression for my career I'm very privileged to be at at the position where I'm at so um you know naturally being a representative of the community being someone who's enjoyed some success in Hollywood and has a platform you know there is inevitably a question of well how are you going to use it what are you going to uplift and so um you know for me it's it's also full full Circle moment where I get to use some of that business school education and I get to really apply it to hey let's let's uplift some you know incredible entrepreneurs who otherwise wouldn't have had the chance having left Finance behind to successfully Forge a career in Hollywood simu has learned a valuable lesson I spent maybe the first 22 years of my life trying to live somebody else's definition of success and what I believed that success was that that was defined by other people and I think in the process of losing my job and kind of hitting rock bottom but then ultimately being liberated from that idea um allowed me to define success on my own terms and I think that's the life's lesson is that success looks and feels different for every single person and you have to learn to define success on on your terms and not what other people and not what Society tells you is successful because that's that's the easiest way to live a very unfulfilled life where you know you just feel like uh not engaged with who you are or your work and um and and Life's Too Short just gone down a rabbit hole trying to um to find out the uh when when there's going to be a sequel because just saying was the legend of uh Changi was at the last decent Marvel film just saying for a friend I think it might have been wasn't it it was an excellent movie he was in anyway anyway for more on converge in our live event which takes place in Singapore in March you can scan the QR code on the screen I'll leave this QR code there for one more second just so you can scan it and then everyone over 40's got to work out how to scan again yeah okay yeah go to the camp okay don't worry all right okay you're done it now or you haven't which case you're not going to are you if it takes any longer um here is the uh future so that's very interesting we're trading around the Flatline but you can see on the screen there around about 2/3 maybe 3/4 of companies are in negative territory so a bit more bang for the B for the stocks that are actually managing to get into the green would you like to look at the US futures they are positive I believe let's have another look um there we go um NASDAQ up 125 points right so um let me give you a couple more comments from the Nissan Honda press conference um what have we got uh the Honda CEO mibe we want to maximize shareholder returns with 1 billion share buyback okay nissen's turnaround is a prerequisite media reports could have propagated The View that Honda's bailout of Miss and our share prices went down but that is not the case well ba out of each other isn't it really I mean let's be brutally honest about it neither them are surging at the moment in terms of their sales compared with the Chinese um this is not a rescue of Nissan that's um what mibe is saying ushida for his part he says our integration with Honda will create a top class Global automaker with more than 30 trillion yen of sales I think the biggest difficulty for both of these gentlemen for Mian and um idaan is is convincing people that for one of a better phrase this isn't two drunks propping each other up you know Global consolidation is great but you still need a product that can compete with the best in class and the best in class at the moment and certainly in terms of sales growth appears to be either let's say Tesla or or the Chinese as well and so the oems whether they're nisson whether they're Honda whether they're FKS vagen as well and we've talked a lot about Volkswagen need better product at a better price and they need also buying from home domestic markets as well let's be brutally honest about it if if you're in Europe and you're being offered a cheap but incredibly good Chinese alternative your loyalty to Volkswagen your loyalty to stantis your loyalty to any of those other um more illustrious historical marks is being tempered and if one thing we've learned about the car industry over the last couple of years is it's great having these wonderful historical Brands as well are some brilliant names out there as well and I've owned a few of them in my time but but the problem is the loyalty to those marks has been diminished we've seen it with the Chinese consumer we've seen it let's be honest with the Breakthrough of Tesla Tesla had the best product a unique position for years people didn't care that it wasn't one of the other that it wasn't a Mustang or that it wasn't a BMW they so new brands can come through all the time in this industry and that's also a challenge uh as we all know uh for shareholders and the companies themselves thank you for listening to squat boox Europe EX Express for more Market moving news you can head to cnbc.com or join us again on the show with Steve Cedric Karen show and myself Arab weekdays on CNBC