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hey everyone welcome to chartology we're going to be diving into the charts of microvision talking about what we might expect for the coming week i am not a financial nor investment advisor please do not blindly follow me or others do your own due diligence and research on a company before you invest now if you're not too familiar with microvision there is a great diligence thread on reddit i will post the link in the description suggest you spend an hour three combing through it the company is pursuing strategic alternatives that provide value to the shareholders which could include a sale of one or more of the verticals or the entire company so the company is for sale they are actively pursuing strategic alternatives again do your diligence read up on that reddit thread there is plenty there but i will tell you here that microvision is the technology inside the microsoft hololens 2 if you're not too familiar with hololens 2 you can dive into that on your own microsoft plans to obsolete the display industry they are working on virtual monitors this is the future they're making strides in training and development they're making strides in the medical field the augmented virtual and mixed reality market is at an inflection point as not only microsoft but other companies compete for a share of this coming multi-billion dollar industry now in addition to being in the hololens microvisions technology is also being used for the army's ivas program last year and every year microvision attends the ces but they did not this year why i believe it's because they're so close to finalizing a deal they did not need to spend the money or time showcasing their technology when they've already done so for so long so a buyout may be closer than some people think now it's not only microsoft that's into augmented reality apple among a lot of other companies are diving into the ar glass market and again microvisions technology is top notch in the world and this disruptive technology is for sale and would greatly provide value to any of these large tech companies looking to pursue and dominate these markets over the next couple years and be true leaders in these markets now in addition to being the world leader in augmented reality in case you didn't know let's take a look at the ev sector and notice right here microvision is an automotive lidar company too well yes they are and they have world class lidar they beat out all the competition the specs are years ahead of others microvision is hands down the lidar leader in the sector now here's the funny thing in addition to companies like workhorse solo and tesla who are already in the ev market apple has recently decided to take their share of the piece of the pie they parted with hyundai to produce their apple car and then just this week gm and cruise partner with microsoft to speed up the self-driving ev technology oh well well now so we're already in microsoft's hollow lens we already have the tech that microsoft needs to do their virtual monitors we already have the tech that microsoft would need for consumer ar glasses and we happen to have world-class lidar for their coming car project huh i'm sure apple is looking at microvision for the same opportunity so go do your dd plenty to read up on microvisions lidar will be ready for mass production in april it's only a matter of time before you start hearing microvision up there with names like clean spark blink plug velodyne luminar it's a powder keg waiting to explode now how soon could the buyout happen does that mean we have to wait for april no no steve holt was asked that exact question and his response was quote news of a transaction could come any time not necessarily april end quote and then the author wrote it could come after two if one of these large companies is waiting for the lidar demo to finalize a deal if it is a contingency however argument has been made that a potential acquirer in an effort to grab this technology before any of their competitors it is reasonable to believe that you go on lunch one day and check the charts and it looks something like this and this is why funds like the vanguard total stock market index has been adding bank of america morgan stanley jp morgan wells fargo raymond james all been adding microvision because they are so undervalued not only in the ev sector but among all their verticals the direction moon fund their second highest holding is microvision at almost double darling companies who have skyrocketed over the last month or three like fuel cell nano dimension and plug in other words they have more money invested in microvision than any of these other companies what's that tell you so again take an hour or three and do some diligence get on reddit but now let's dive into the charts all right here is a nice clean daily chart let's draw in the support and resistance lines i've been talking about for a while that's 485 that's the bottom of our cup we got 543. five 575 615 the all-important 636 line that goes back to 2009 that i've been talking about forever then i'm gonna draw in blue the 6.66 line of support and resistance that we've been playing with for a couple of days i had to make that reference for those of you on stocktwits i've seen the stuff you posted about i should have put the line in red but and there in green is the 695 go line and the volume overlay there all right so we're trading healthily above the 13 moving average as well as the red line the 30 moving average it looks like we have held supported 666. and on thursday we did come down and test that 636 line again which was good to see i said i said i would welcome that i would i would be motivated that's where i would load up because that could confirm that this was a cup and handle playing out and i'll get to that more in a couple of minutes now we'll overlay the bollinger bands you can see they're constricting which could play out as a bollinger squeeze i talked about that in last week's video we did come down and test the middle of that bollinger band on thursday at the 6 36 mark and you can see the really strong support we had back at 6 36 because it did take so long testing it again and again before we finally broke through and held had to come back down and test that to confirm and move forward now you can see where it's converging with the 13 right there we've been trading nicely above and closing nicely above the 13 for seven trading days now we're still nicely above the 30. since we broke 636 we have continued to close above it so to me with all this convergence going on with all the moving averages in the bollinger bands and the 636 line in my opinion we have extremely strong support between 615 and 636 so i believe it's looking good to continue up from here now for the last seven trading days you've noticed the volume has been on a continuous downtrend lower volume every day now that's gonna play out as to an advantage because as the volume now starts to increase what it usually does is kind of acts like a springboard for a little bit you know it kind of gives the upward move a little extra momentum now friday was the lowest volume since december 9th look at where we were back then right before a huge run-up right at the end of a handle this was the end of a three-month cupping handle and a one-month smaller cupping handle now you notice the pattern down there in the handle kind of little downtrend notice the pattern right now kind of a little downtrend right now on the right there i'll just overlaid a little orange box to show you that's also the highest volume in the volume profile over the last two months which to me indicates huge support at this current level if you look to the left that orange box there was five days of trading around december with very high volume in that range now the bulk of this volume was just on the 22nd and one of two things happened to all the buyers during the spike either they got scared out and sold maybe they bought back in at this point or they held and added to their positions on the dip or they're still holding so once we hit this area of share price i don't see a lot of resistance coming now again here's the goal line right seven dollars and fifty cents is where we're looking to break above so there's our 750 go line for the potential cup and handle that's playing out right we got the top of the cup over here at 750 we did some testing of it after we broke through we tested it again rejected we tested a third time rejected and a fourth rejected there is the top of the cup we draw the cup in here is the potential handle if you go back to december 9th you look at that pattern back to today if that pattern winds up playing out and our volume doesn't drastically increase monday and tuesday it could play out just like it did before tight trading range and then we have the breakout now we might even go as high as test that 974. here's what i could see potentially happening so if the same pattern plays out we may see something like this we may go up to test the highs and not break the highs at 9.74 or 10 therefore potentially forming another cup and then there would be the handle maybe we'd come back down and test that 750 for support before getting into the double digits permanently right and how would the 10 cup and handle look well we'd have our support at the bottom of the cup which would still be the same spot at 485 that already played out in this cup then we'd have that 750 mark that we spiked to in the middle of the cup that once we broke it we would have to come back down and test if we played out something like this i would expect it to come back down you know maybe settle in the eights and you know how microvision you can trade in a dollar range for a day you know come down in a morning bounce all the way down and that's 750 scare out some weak hands before shooting back up similar to the way it's played out time and time again and then i think we would potentially break into the teens now something to keep in mind that i haven't really discussed in my videos but i do take into play is how a short squeeze can happen so let's talk about the short volumes this is the amount of shares per day traded that are shorts and you can see we're really low we're only at 30 now the last time it hung out in this range was back in november other than this little short dip here now that's short volume on a daily basis let's look at short interest how many shares are actually shorted not the volume of shorts on a day you'll notice the short interest as of new year's is as high as it's been since october right so let's bring up the daily charts here's those times in october when short interest was at its highs here is the end of the year when short interest match that same high now if you'll notice back in october those shorts wound up helping form a top of the old cup now they've actually helped establish a bottom putting so much pressure to bottom us out but where have we gone up now again notice back in october the short volume was between 50 and 60 percent a day and again now we're only at 30. and the price has gone up which can and should initiate a huge short squeeze so in my opinion shareholders we are somewhere in that handle now i think we might have broke the handle so let's go to the hourly chart again closed above the 200 the blue line above the 30 the red line and we did actually close regular trading above the 13 degree line now let me overlay all my support resistance and what's going on you can see that little pennant forming there you could see the pink lines that would be the handle on the cup and handle now let me clean it up again before i dive in and start explaining the first thing i'm going to do is draw on the support resistance line at 6.78 which as you can see over the latter part of the week established itself as a more important line than originally thought but you can see the amount of play of resistance we've had along this line let me show it to you with a little brighter yellow now right and here's that pen and i was talking about right right at that support resistance line we actually held it in after hours trading friday which quite honestly i did not expect but we did that shows more strong support here's the pennant looking for a breakout on that pennant and that should bring us back to either test again that 695 mark or break right through it now if you look at the bottom of the screen bringing the macd into play as you can see the green cross the red that is a very bullish sign in very oversold territory friday morning now if you subtract the after hours it's actually much more impressive but we're looking for that to cross that little white line signaling a bullish uptrend coming let's update how we're looking on the cup and handle okay there's our 750 resistance points there's the top of the cup we draw the cup in right again a couple of situations we needed right we needed to break that down trend line come back and test it before going on an uptrend we had a spike in the middle of the cup that once we broke through we had to come back down and retest which we did now you take the top of the first touch to 750 to the low we had thursday morning there's the bottom of the handle you take the other 750 resistance point you have the downtrend line as you can see we came up we tested it got rejected threw us all the way down to the bottom of the handle we came back up we kind of rode the top of the handle down a little bit and friday morning we broke that handle so as i've been talking about if this actually was the confirmed handle which i think it might have been we have broken out i do believe we'll see a quick and violent move up sometime this week now once we break 695 as you can see there's not a lot of action recently so we should go straight up to 750 might encounter some more resistance there but then again we might have enough momentum and volume to just blast right through and we'll see you at 10. now let me take you back to the last cup of handle formation on microvision december 8th you see the top of the cup right there three days of downtrend then a healthy move that broke and closed above the downtrend line now if we do get some volume monday morning it is possible that we shoot straight up past 750 really quickly and let me show you why going back to the last microvision cup and handle on december 8th right there was the top of the cup there was the downtrend followed by a break and hold and close above the downtrend line if that's where we are today we might expect something like happened last time like this right so let's get back to today and here we are so what's the price target let me explain it and break it down for you last time when we broke out it was the 2.87 cent mark and we went to 9.74 cents that is a 239 percent move over seven trading days now if we take that 7.50 as the breakout point like the 2.87 breakout point was a 237 percent move from here would be 17. quite possible why not it's played out like this over and over again now am i saying it's gonna hit 1778 over the next seven trading days i'm saying it could but we don't know this could take a day to play out a week to play out we could hang around for two more days in this area before a breakout but i think again and i could be wrong that this is the breakout from the handle of the downtrend line and again like i said if we do kind of fart around in this area and the pattern plays out something like this once we break that 695 mark i think that's when you'll start to see the squeeze and we move up faster more violently than some of you might be expecting however volume is going to play such an important role this week in determining how fast we move up from here now remember we have that solid support between 6 15 and 6 36 so let's take a look at breaking up quicker or later right we've got this pennant playing out let's say the pennant fails we come back down us 666 we might immediately rebound with some momentum but if we don't and we break all the way down to the 6 36 mark before shooting up or if we break all the way down to six dollars and 15 cents and come test that 200 moving average again like i've said in my last videos that's only 8 down from here it's not too bad when you consider the rebound is going to be more harsh and violent if we get down that low that is an adding point for sure now we have snapped out of the rsi downtrend channel but we've kind of just petered along there not doing much of nothing and that is due to the low relative volume but we did go from there to there on the snap so far which is a modest nine percent gain we'll have to see where the rsi takes us from here but with decreasing volume the first hint of increased volume is really going to help us move up we could move up harsh and fast we have plenty of support like i showed you there once we start to move up there will be that squeeze as i explained before and we're gonna be seeing the teens sooner than later hey thanks for watching make sure you like and subscribe to the channel hit the notifications button make sure you get all the notifications and until next time happy trading
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