Mark Sales Report Made Easy

Mark sales report

so so if you're new to my channel then say hello to my negative 2020 strategy and if you're a long time viewer then all i can say is here we go again these are the filters that i run through stop doctor twice a year to find stocks which satisfy my negative 2020 strategy in other words earnings per share growth has to be greater than 20 percent net debt to equity less than negative 20 average daily trade greater than 300 000 and market capitalization greater than 100 million dollars and i measure those on february the 28th and on august the 31st and so we're coming up into the february reporting season and i am interested in companies that almost made the grade last time and so what i've done is scanned for companies that definitely had earnings per share growth greater than 20 percent at their last report but didn't quite meet the net debt to equity ratio being less than negative 20 percent and so i've found those that are between negative 10 and negative 20 and then i've also done the reverse of that that earnings per share growth last time wasn't quite there being between 10 and 20 percent and then the net debt to equity figure is less than negative 20 now having run that i've ended up with only seven stocks that we need to be considering under this particular scan and i've got indicated on screen the dates at which they according to stock doctor are scheduled to deliver their financial report and i think for all of them it actually is an interim report now you might say really is that all you're doing well yeah i'm trying to keep it very very simple and i am trying to turn all of my investing into something which is pretty much always mechanical i'm trying to actually remove any of the emotion from the decision to buy and also from the decision to sell and as long as the company fits my metrics then i will buy it and i'll hold it until those metrics are no longer met now it's not a perfect system by any means but these are the results as best as i can back test them back to the middle of 2016. and so since that time starting on september the 1st of 2006 and coming through until january the 25th of 2021 we have nine six monthly periods although this last one is just a little bit short of five months and of those nine periods seven of them have delivered a positive return on average for the stocks and two have delivered a negative return i'm not sure why in the early stages there were only around 10 stocks coming out of the scan because since then it seems to be up in the high teens heading towards 20 and in fact in this particular scan here there are two more that i haven't got in there because they only came to my attention about three months into the period and so i haven't included them even though they have delivered very good returns and this figure of 18 would actually be higher if those two stocks had been included and those two stocks are keener securities ticker code ksl and champion iron ticker code cia if you have access to fundamental data you can go and check out their fundamentals but looking at each of these seven stocks one by one i'll go through their fundamentals and we'll have a look at the chart and i'll make some commentary about what i think might be taking place here and what we might expect in the future well first cab off the rank is breville group i've got listed here the last four reports two of them interim and two of them annual reports so its last annual report the net debt to equity figure was very good return on equity was very good net profit margin is a little bit of a concern it's slowly creeping down so margins are contracting a little bit for the company but revenue growth very good and earnings per share growth has always been between the 10 and 20 mark for the last four reporting periods to make it into the negative 2020 universe it needs to maintain that negative net debt to equity and its earnings per share needs to grow from 56.43 when reported at the end of december 2019 it needs to report an earnings per share figure of 70 and a half cents if we look at the chart of its share price we can see that it's managed to go up to almost a new all-time high so therefore it's got some positive momentum and looking very much like it might be heading up into blue sky territory second company bravura solutions net debt to equity has always been very good some concerning signs for this company though revenue growth has fallen away quite a lot and even though earnings per share growth for the last three years has remained between 10 and 20 percent i'm not sure how they're managing to do that possibly they are because the net profit margins are expanding it will need to deliver earnings per share of greater than 19.7 cents when it reports but there are a few issues for this company unlike net wealth and hub and premium which are sort of in the same space 55 percent of their revenue comes from the united kingdom and i've got the big ah not good and here's the reason why it's not good united kingdom is really struggling to manage the outbreak of covert a little bit of signs here of getting it under some sort of control but over three and a half million cases in the uk compared that with australia at about 25 or 27 000 or something and compared with australia united kingdom have just messed this up absolutely and so as a result of that there are real issues with the economy in the uk and this is impacting very much on bravura's business looking at its share price chart you can see this long downward trend as it makes a succession of lower highs and lower lows it's bounced off the yearly low down here at the bottom of the period where we turned around from the pandemic concerns it's come down and tested that again gone up come down tested it again and headed up so if it doesn't come out and report something a little bit better than what the market is thinking i've got a suspicion this is going to be heading down through the purple line and continuing this trend downwards but this is actually a company that i think we need to keep an eye on for the future maybe not quite now but stick it on the whiteboard and keep an eye on it because i do believe that sometime in the future is going to turn around but right now this is the whole falling knife i hate that term so i'm not going to use it ever again there you go there's my fifth new year's resolution not good well i certainly have no intention of putting my money into this at this stage because i don't think it's going to report figures that are going to be anywhere near good enough to fit the negative 2020 metrics next company info media net debt to equity very good net profit margins very good very stable getting slightly bigger as we go along revenue growth yes it's got it but it's sort of not above the 20 mark and earnings per share growth is a sort of a little worrying trend from 30 to 22 to 19 to 13. it will need to report earnings per share of 6.7 cents up from 5.35 a year ago and looking at its chart it's bounced off of a sort of a level of support here at a dollar fifty uh and it's starting to move upwards so there seems to be a little bit of positive momentum about this one we've got a higher high here higher lows from there to there so there's maybe a chance that this one can actually fit the numbers nicely next company janus henderson group its issue is that its net debt to equity has never ever been anywhere near negative 20 percent it needs to get there net profit margin has widened which is a good thing it reported very very good earnings per share growth and i suspect it's going to do that easily this time because the 53 is measured by dividing 477 by 311. when it reported at the end of december 2019 earnings were 324 cents per share so it only needs to deliver 406 cents this time but i've got a suspicion that this is not going to make the grade but nonetheless we're going to keep an eye on it looking at its share price doing very well let's pass through this pre-covered high and made a new high come down this resistance level here has now become support so it's traded up to a new resistance level at around 45 dollars came down bounced off of this support level has gone back up hit the resistance and now trading right plum in the middle of this little channel a little 10 channel between 41 and 45 there seems to be a very good feel about this company mr market is liking it and we'll check to see whether it's numbers fit those negative 2020 metrics pretty good chance is going to do it with the earnings per share growth but i'm not quite sure about the negative 20 for the net debt to equity next stop john's ling group i already have bought this stock because if you remember the video where i indicated that i bought it it somehow appeared in the negative 2020 scan i bought it and when i rescanned it wasn't there but i've held it and i've done okay out of this stock the net debt to equity is very good negative 41 revenue growth looking good 41 then 47 very thin margins though but does seem to be affecting its earnings per share growth it doesn't have to do much to come into the negative 2020 universe rising from 8.08 cents up to 10.1 cents will do the trick it's share price well this is really just a very very nice chart there's nothing particularly awful about anything of what's going on here it's making a succession of higher lows it's broken through the pre-covert high trade it up hit a resistance point come down hit resistance but it's come down to a much lower level and i guess look if it breaks through this purple line and starts coming down here then maybe my thesis needs to be modified a bit but i am pretty hopeful that this one is going to make it into the negative 20 20 universe regis resources gold mining stock earnings per share growth that last time was 25.9 very good all it needs to do is grow that 39 cents to 42 cents up from 33 a year ago and it will hit that metric but it's not quite there at the moment in the negative 20 for net debt to equity but it has been there in the past and it's not far away its net profit margins are expanding so there in one sense is a good chance that this might actually occur but i do have some issues with this stock looking at the chart this is a one year chart and for the first six months or so or actually until the end of july it's risen by 37 percent but since then has fallen by 40 percent giving an overall fall of 18 for the year now the reason why that concerns me is if we look at the price for gold over the same period it's risen by 32 percent and then it's only pulled back by 9.6 since august or the end of july giving a total rise for the year of 19.3 percent so if we look at these things they are not mirroring each other at all now of course owning a gold miner is a leveraged sort of play against the price of gold you would think that as the price of gold fell down you would expect a miner of gold to fall down by more than nine percent but by the same token a rise of 32 percent in the price of gold should really have delivered much more than a 37 percent rise in the price of regis so something going on here maybe it just prior to this maybe it had gone up very very quickly and the enthusiasm for it has wind but it is an issue and right now gold miners generally speaking are in negative space and while all this has been going on my other gold mining stocks namely perseus mining and silver lake resources just to name a couple have not done well over this last six month period but the last stock in this scan is west gold resources which had a very very big earnings per share growth when it reported in june last year from 3.57 cents up to 6.47 so it's going to need to grow from 7.83 up to 9.8 to get a 20 percent growth in earnings this time it's very very close to the negative 20 when it reported last time in net debt to equity so really interested in this one but its net profit margin is another one of these which is not all that great if we go back and have a look at regis resources you'd have net profit margins in the mid twenties it's a gold miner and here we are with west gold resources with their net profit margin down only at five percent always interesting to see how companies in the same space aren't necessarily looking at having the same sort of financials behind them but interestingly as far as the share price chart is concerned this is very very good clearly in an uptrend a nice gentle waving motion coming up from if we're looking here at more or less the middle of the year from around two dollars it's currently trading at 2.40 odd 40 cents out of two dollars so there's a 20 rise over the last five months or so and it's down here at the bottom of this wave now you know i suspect that if it can come out and report very nicely then this wave is going to continue on so this is one that is really of quite a bit of interest to me and then finally i thought about what if there are any companies that just miss on both metrics so to investigate that i ran the scan as shown on screen and two more stocks popped up into the universe alliance aviation services and baby bunting group so looking at each of those firstly in alliance aviation net debt to equity at negative 13 percent and earnings per share growth at 13 it'll need to deliver nearly 24 cents of earnings per share when it reports to get 20 above 19 cents looking at its uh financials i like them a lot net profit margin going up slowly and revenue going up also even though we had issues around of course covered they still managed to increase their revenue and they also managed to increase their net profit after tax so now that we're opening up a little bit and the mining services companies are needing to get their staff up to the mines i suspect that alliance aviation has a very very good chance of delivering this particular figure when they report whether they can lower their debt or increase their cash reserves enough to beat this one i don't know but looking at the share price for this company not quite a thing of beauty but very very attractive definitely an uptrend broken way above the pre-covered highs and channeling upwards cycling along quite nicely and finally looking at baby bunting same deal pretty much revenue growth quite good problems i guess around the lockdowns up during covert but their online sales managed to hold them together the eps growth despite the the issues with the pandemic nearly got to 20 and i'm thinking that there's again a very good chance this is going to happen again will they increase their cash reserves or decrease their debt to make this needed 20 we'll find out in about a month's time but this is a very interesting company i think again not absolutely beautiful but very very attractive i'd be looking out for births coming up early in the new year let's just see what's happened as a result of the pandemic with everyone being locked indoors what sort of activities have been taking place and i'm suspecting we might see an uptick in the birth rate you know around about uh now february who knows just guessing but mums want the very best for their babies and baby bunting no longer has all of the competitors biting at its heels and it's doing very very well so another one to keep your eyes on during the february reporting season so so you