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[Music] [Applause] [Music] so before recording this video the thought had crossed my mind that i should probably basically rename my channel at least temporarily and i guess people seem more interested in it than well the other videos i post so obviously chasing a few views and giving the people what they want i ran a quick poll now the results of the poll were very very interesting as you can see over here and i was a little surprised that we had 41 saying that it would not crash now before you jump into the comments i will always say as i mentioned on this channel i'm always happy to be proven wrong remember i'm simply sharing my experiences research and perspective based on my own experience so i welcome any thoughts and i'm always happy to be proven wrong however for this video i want to discuss why the property market hasn't crashed just yet and whether or not the property crash will happen in 2021 you see as much fun as it is to get a few extra views and get this channel noticed by aspiring property investors or enthusiasts i also don't want to speak about the same things over and over again as it's not fun for me and it sure as hell can't be that much fun for you so please do check out this video and this video if you want to just get up to date and this is completely new to you and it's the first time you've ever come across my channel but the question i've been asked a fair few times now and i promised i'd addressed at least this week is why we haven't seen a crash just yet why hasn't it happened now assuming you watch those videos i just mentioned or at least have basic knowledge to hand around things like furlough stamp duty pent-up demand and the very very low interest rates we now need to look at where we are at the end of january 2021 moving closer and closer to the time i believe things may potentially start to wobble march 2021 now we know this guy rishi guys rishi thank you so we know this guy rishi he is under an immense amount of pressure around doing something before the 31st of march because the closer we get the more nervous prospective buyers will definitely be knowing that they need to have completed by a set cutoff date to get the benefits of the stamp duty relief and also knowing the backlog and time scales of lenders solicitors and all those involved in a property transaction it's fair to assume it is becoming a larger risk so he really needs to decide something soon because even if he waits till the third of march which is now what i'm hearing he's gonna do it could be putting people off in february and even today from going out there and purchasing properties as common sense would tell them there is a risk that may not complete it on time personal my stance know the market value for the house and really work the opportunity cost of buying now to save some stamp duty or waiting for a potential wobble and saving yourself some money on the overall purchase price now i figured i wouldn't be 100 lazy for this video and do some actual research more research for you all after you've kindly taken a few moments to stop by and watch this video and well as property investors well i seem to always see them say we now need to showcase and deliver value so anyways i got researching and i got back to this whole stamp duty and the effects of it since it's come into play now we know london prices have risen by almost 10 which is absolutely remarkable if you ask me london is already one of those places that will cost you about a hundred thousand pounds for a shed let alone a normal house and reports have also shown more than a hundred thousand prospective buyers are trying to find a home before the deadline crazy crazy crazy numbers and it's quite bizarre that there's almost like a crazy purge going on with people wanting to get a purchase done before the deadline it's well it almost reminds me of those sales that we used to get on black friday where we see people liking each other to grab a tv and camping outside of shops for days well we're kind of getting a little bit of that as well behind the scenes which is a kind of massive stroke if you look at it from the government in terms of keeping property purchases going and the demand still there although i do really wish people acted more on logic over emotion but hey here i am using an overpriced macbook next to my apple ipad positioned with four rolled mics why i need four mics i don't know but it seemed like a great bargain when they offered it me to buy it in the bundle i think i saved like 15 and well i couldn't let 15 slide although i guess my life would have been easier if i just slid over to the other side of the desk rather than having a mic on each corner but hey hindsight is a wonderful thing and even myself i rarely use common sense but that is the exact type of example where we display irrational behavior and i see many people doing that today we convince ourselves that the savings of stamp duty or the limited time of opportunity is worthless over spending on unnecessary purchases or overpaying and this is being witnessed now in the market but i digress now what we do know is if we are to extend stamp duty which hopefully some of you can let me know in the comments below if you stumble across this video in the next week i believe the following will happen and it'd be interesting to see if you agree with this it would again slow down a potential crash of property prices so i may have to do another video as purchases will continue to go ahead because just how i want these four microphones in my podcast setup people will want a house without paying stamp duty conveyancers will also take this opportunity and likely celebrate with a night off although it seems they well kind of do that anyway most of the time and they'll probably enjoy the ease of pressure they are given by having more time to respond to their one email quota a week to get stuff done and then we have mortgage lenders who can reduce some of the stress of their own as well on their shoulders in terms of getting stuff over the line so it's definitely going to be good news i think for a lot of people involved in property especially sellers now if rishi guys come can we just get the photo on the screen please yeah i know he's already been on but if somebody just jumps to this part of the video they may think i'm rishi and i don't want that now if this guy rishi doesn't extend stamp duty then we are in for some fun times at least in my opinion firstly deals will collapse people will simply pull out of deals knowing they won't save their thousands of pounds on stamp duty as they'll feel they won't be able to complete in time so i definitely predict thousands of property transactions to collapse at the last minute and not reach the set deadline if he chooses not to extend it unless of course he makes an exception to the rule maybe to protect those midway through transactions but otherwise we're gonna see a lot of stuff going back on the market now again doing some more research for this video we do know that the original intention around stamp duty was short term the sdlt holiday was designed to be a temporary relief to stimulate the market activity and support jobs that rely on the property market the government does not plan to extend temporary relief at least that's what they said earlier so if that is true although what the government says and does are two completely different things then expect the wobble to begin beginning with the initial pulling out of transactions and then the ridiculous house prices will have to decrease because there's no incentive for buyers to purchase overpriced properties so it's interesting times and the final point i guess which i should say which is pretty interesting too is there's whispers around rishi sonic considering a fifth furlough extension now as things stand it's until the end of april i believe but let's see because maybe that will slow down the wobble of a potential crash as people will still have some disposable income to play around with so that is where we stand at the minute everyone and just like yourselves i'm waiting to see how the government moves on this topic i definitely believe that the next few weeks will be really telling and their next few actions will massively determine how property investors and home buyers will have to move in 2021 and beyond but although it's never great to see problems in the market i must stress that there will be opportunities too so it's probably a great time to be ready especially if you have some cash ready and even myself i i can't talk about myself okay it's a bit rude but either way i still believe it will bring opportunities but the question i suppose is when who knows but what we do know is that i'm likely gonna do another one of these videos as i think updating yourselves on property not only keeps me up to date but it's quite fun as well and hopefully entertaining enough for you guys to want to stick around maybe subscribe and potentially like that video as well so maybe the youtube gods know that i exist and of course thank you all for taking time out of your day today for tuning in let me know your thoughts as well let me know why you think there may not be a crash as well again i'm always open to learn and i'm sure there's people who are too scared to comment watching this video probably looking in the comment section for some useful advice just make sure it's useful and now our favorite time of the day some bloopers thank you now if this guy rishi doesn't extend now if this guy rishi doesn't extend i'm gonna have to try that one again guys and they'll probably be very thankful of the pressure relieved on it and probably and they'll probably enjoy the ease of pressure they have given remember i'm merely shari remember merely what what