Sign Establishment Made Easy

Sign establishment

[Music] all right saga what's on your radar well this is my very last chance to weigh in before the 2020 presidential election there's a lot of pressure it's been quite a ride here on rising so far given the state of the country i don't think it's going to go away any time soon so my latest radar to put my cards on the table again i think trump is going to lose the election and that he will likely do so because he strayed away from the agenda that he ran on in 2016. he didn't create public confidence in his government's ability to handle coronavirus and he failed to pursue economic stimulus many times over you've heard it from me many times the crux of my previous radar was laying out a marker for the republican party to ever win an election again they need to understand why trump lost if he does in fact do so but the converse of that is also important whomever wins the election will face the same set of questions on their first day on the next administration so what do i do and that question derives almost entirely from the question of why these people think that they won so let's start with trump like i said i think it's unlikely but the question is still important what does it mean if trump wins the 2020 presidential election and how will it impact his possible second term if trump wins the election it means one thing very simply this country is sending a giant middle finger to the neoliberal technocratic elite it is a primal and rebelling scream directed at the cultural and economic power centers of america telling them that even if they get scraps from the white house they don't care gop can block their stimulus checks white house can mismanage a pandemic that leads to literal death none of it matters it's a rejection of the slow motion cultural revolution that's been attempted in the united states since the great awokening in the early 2010s it's rejection of lawlessness and streets and immigration laws and it's a set in essence it would be a total and complete rejection of the university educated class in america but it would also say a lot about the democratic party a trump win would mean that the democrats marrying themselves to left woke ideologues and pairing them with wall street friendly economic policy is seen by the majority of the public for what it is it's a top-down revolution meant to rob you and re-educate you at the same time i'll admit i'm kind of projecting here i don't think this country is nearly as culturally reactionary as what i'm laying out here i adhere to my core driving principle that improving the economic conditions of the vast majority of americans while not trying to force a cultural agenda down their throats is the only path forward for the republican party but if trump wins then it will mean i was wrong about a lot and it will significantly change the way that i think about american politics but what about joe biden what would a win for him mean the neoliberal technocrats will have you believe that it was an affirmation of their governance that it is a grand return to the obama years of 2012 that it is a positive vote for more jobs offshoring more woke lip service more wall street bidding more cozying up to china and throwing the left a bone on transformative immigration policy but of course i don't think it's going to be any of that the reasons for abide in victory are really simple a lot of the country doesn't like donald trump personally they're fed up with the pandemic response and many of those who switch their vote for him did not get much of the promise help that he said he would deliver that's it and if i had to wait any of those heaviest i would say the pandemic itself has the most to do with this if this election is a referendum on anything it's trump's coronavirus response both in terms of the disease and the economic response reams of data tell us that this is the case the latest pew research polling into biden voters tells us that 63 percent of the people voting for him cite their vote against trump not for biden yes you heard that correctly literally two-thirds compare this to trump's voters where only 24 say the same thing about voting against joe biden with two-thirds voting for the man affirmatively if i had to pick a single moment that encapsulates white biden will have won if he does it will have nothing to do with him it will be this from february to 26th i mean view this the same as the flu when somebody sneezes i mean i try and bail out as much as possible when they're sneezing i had a man come up to me a week ago i hadn't seen him in a long time and i said how you doing he said fine funny he hugs me kiss i said are you well he says no he said i have the worst fever and the worst flu and he's hugging and kissing me so i said excuse me i went and i started washing my hair so you have to do that you know this is i really think doctor you want to treat this like you treat the flu right and you know it's going to be it's going to be that's the first time that trump compared coronavirus to the flu bizarrely he decided to resurrect that talking point after he emerged from the hospital after himself getting coronavirus and it remains the single most unpopular thing that he said about the virus and if you trace public polling on his handling of the virus it all slipped in april when he fully embraced anti-lockdown position and he tried to downplay the virus before the second wave swept across the sun belt that's it it just has to do with trump and coronavirus and lack of stimulus it is the easiest possible way to get elected president and it's downright dangerous if biden does win because a key principle i hope that you all understand in this is when you don't have strongly held views about something in washington it gets colored in the lines by the establishment our relationship with south america trade policy towards europe nato the balkans education policy how to run the interior department this is where the swamp excels if you don't have an opinion they just keep doing what they've always been doing and biden is worse because not only does he object to this not object to the swamp in business as usual he will take his mandate and use it as an affirmation of the worst excesses of the 2010s under barack obama and set this country up for a collision course in the future the truth is is that the only thing joe biden will have a mandate for if he gets elected is distributing a coronavirus vaccine properly that's it literally and the depressing part of this all is there's no mandate for anything though you will hear a lot from the biden people about how it is don't fool yourself or fall for the gaslighting he will only have one mandate everything else is essentially an establishment con job so that's the crux of it if either of these candidates win that is why and that matters immensely as to what they do what washington will do in response and more importantly how all of us will think about our own politics as we assess the results of the election and i had to go through that mental exercise crystal i was like well what does it mean if trump wins right and i was like well i think it's just a massive cultural backlash i mean much more reactionary than a lot of people thought you can also see this reflected in what trump is saying he's going to do if he wins another term i know he said stimulus i'm not going to hold my breath maybe it's possible um but maybe if the stock market like totally collapses that would be the only scenario i think he would do it probably not the 2 trillion that we need but something would pass the real thing is and what people are kind of salivating for is he's like i'm gonna fire chris wray i'm gonna fire foul he said yesterday he might fire fauci he's like i'm gonna fire um i'm gonna fire the defense secretary like put all your own people in charge i might say like maybe should have done that from the very beginning but the real question for this is how he interpreted his win i think he'd actually be correct in his administration if they were basically like look we got away with you know not doing a lot of the economic stuff still won the election then it would just be all culture war stuff for another four years i think it'd be bad for the country but also maybe reflective of the country itself a biden win on the other hand it's what i laid out i think the only reason this man is going to win the election if he wins is because of coronavirus and the stimulus lack of stimulus and it would be easy as hell for trump to coast to election if he had handled it differently and there's just something about that which gulls me because we're going to talk about later in the show all of these biden people measuring the drapes in the oval office getting ready to go back in the trade policy secretary of state's office and so much more and these are the people that got us into libya got us into tpp they're the ones who got us into some of the most destructive things we've done as a country in the last 10 years and they're just salivating whether ready to come back there's another reason i would put out there for if trump were to pull off what i think is an unlikely win for the reasons that you lay out his failure i mean he validated people's greatest fears about him that when push come to came to shove we actually needed a president to govern and do something he was totally unable to step up to the plate and do anything remotely approaching like leadership just like the basic level of leadership and calming people and trusting the science i know that gets made fun of but like that's all people really wanted to have during the pandemic is some sort of rational approach but if he were to win it wouldn't um it would partly be a validation of look what's he run on it's like biden's a socialist and 1619 project and um and his obsession with like antifa and all this kind of crap but it wouldn't just be that it also would be a failure of joe biden because he hasn't done much i mean that's the bottom line is like he hasn't run much of a campaign he hasn't promised much he hasn't delivered much and so i think there would also be a message there about like you know what it's not enough to just be against this guy you also have to give people a reason to vote for you and so if the enthusiasm levels aren't there for biden in the numbers that he needs and we see right now like suburban white voters seem very excited to vote for joe biden a lot of other groups that failed to turn out for hillary clinton also seem less enthusiastic about joe biden in some instances have actively switched over to donald trump i think it would be a message about that as well i saw some you know some like pre-sniping online about oh all you like bernie progressive people said that democrats had to nominate someone to excite the base in order to win but i mean number one that was before corona it's a completely different world but number two i hold by the fact that if you actually had someone who was promising like people really thought they were gonna get health care people really thought they were going to get stimulus people really thought they were going to get an economic agenda that was going to deliver for their lives i don't think we'd be coming down to like oh my god what happens if pennsylvania's off by a few points it wouldn't be such a nerve-wracking proposition either one of these candidates if they just offered an affirmative clear economic agenda for the country either one of them could be running away with this in a landslide i completely agree i think it will be both on trump and the cultural referendum and it would be a huge indictment obviously of biden i mean it would i think it would be the complete total failure of the democratic party they'd have to burn it to the ground and build it up up against yeah but they wouldn't they certainly wouldn't but they did they built it up again around like john kasich yeah if they if you want they they would have to do that there's just no question in my mind i mean and the trump people you know the establishment gop is licking their chops they're ready for him to lose if he wins he actually needs to transform the party in his image but i'm not all that optimistic because i think i did a radar here after kenosha and i was like look trump could win because of all this stuff and if he does it's not enough it's not enough just to have a cultural you know reactionary president because then you just fire christopher wray and you like obsess over magga and people still don't have stimulus checks and i think that that is actually the part where he look again i think that my theory of politics is generally more correct but if it's not we'll find out tomorrow um or i guess in the coming weeks and if it's not i'm gonna reassess about how much of this stuff really matters maybe it is all a culture war i really don't know i don't i like to think that it's not um and there's some faith that i still have that it isn't so we'll see all right i'm looking forward to your radar next crystal