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[Music] hey everyone this is robert kings with goldsilverpros.com it is tuesday january 19 2021 and we're going to begin turning our attention to what we think is going to happen in the markets in 2021 that'll be the focus of this video i'm going to extend this out to a very specific special presentation i'm going to be doing on january 28th i've got an invite for you to come see that for free i think you guys won't want to miss it so stay tuned to the end of the video for that announcement i'm going to go ahead and start the screen share and we're going to start off talking about the gold market i've been talking since early this summer about the golden the gold market hitting a high of over two thousand dollars and then potentially forming a handle pattern for those who haven't been following me a handle pattern uh when it comes after a cup a cup is defined as basically a move just like this when the handle pattern starts to form after the cup it is an extremely bullish like multi-year bullish indicator for a market because the market decreases it comes back in increases it's a little overheated it comes back and forms a handle and then the momentum keeps going that's extremely bullish i don't know if we're going to finalize the handle pattern and come down to 1700 gold but if we do it's extremely bullish for gold what that also means however is a short term gold price could come down i'm not sure if that's going to happen we're going to look at the chart but it is definitely a possibility although i do see some bullish factors for gold going forward here in the next few months let's drop down to a shorter term chart the last time i covered the technical charts for you guys is a little while back we talked about this range pattern we talked about this downward sloping range pattern sort of this dis interested gold pattern which acts as a consolidation for people taking profits in gold and then people wanting to accumulate more of course we had a breakout here starting in the beginning of december and it broke out and formed a new channel so we're in a bullish channel for gold however gold has come back down through its 50 day moving average and stayed below the 200-day moving average though it's retried it a couple of times so gold is still in a short-term bearish pattern even though i think term it could be bullish so i'm not sure if we're going to complete that cup and handle pattern but if we do i wouldn't be surprised but that's okay it just means that the move in gold is going to come probably a few months later than we expected it to and it could ramp up at the end of spring leading into early summer from a technical perspective from a fundamental perspective we'll talk about that in a moment as to why i think gold is about to resume its bull market silver on the other hand is a little bit different no cup and handle pattern here although we did hit uh highs over the last since basically i want to say 2013 in the silver price where it hit almost 30 bucks it came right and this is near a near vertical move that happened in july i called it about july 14th i did a video we said we're about to have a big move in silver and boy did we it just kept going up but it's come back down basically range trade although silver never really got quite as bearish as gold did it never came all the way down through its sooner day moving average we'll see that in the short term chart it did have sort of this sideways consolidation trend although it wasn't uh sharply down like gold was gold was down gold was clearly in a correction trend silver was really just in a holding pattern and it never came down through its 200-day moving averages this red line you see here so i've been a little bit more bullish on silver than i have been gold for that reason of course silver came back through its 50-day moving average is represented by this blue line it's formed a new bullish trend just like gold has but it's a stronger trend because it's stayed above its 50-day moving average whereas we go back to the gold chart it's it's trying to get above his 200-day so we'd like to see uh gold come through it's junior day and then it's 50 day but silver has stayed above so silver's got a little bit more bullish momentum and so when you look at the commitment of traders report on the comex the futures market you see more interesting things in the gold market than you do silver silver is basically kind of a war back and forth gold has been a consolidation pattern and there have been some big movements in the commitment traders on the comics which we're going to look at next i didn't show this last week but the the exchange report or the the cot report on the exchanges as printed by the cftc through january 5th had very bearish gold data this report we're showing the most recent report through january 12th remember the cftc reports on commitment traders are about a week behind the trading action a week to 10 days this goes through only january 12th now we're at the 19th so it's a week old and so in a few days we should expect to get a new cop report so this is all backward looking data but to recap the end of december and the first week of january there was a lot of increased short positions by the bullion banks on gold to the tune of about 18 000 contracts in fact through january 25th that particular week's caught data it was 13 000 in some contracts additional short side from the bullion banks well that trend has reversed we're going to see by going down to gold on this january 12 data so here is the gold data and if you go across to the overall changes you see that the swap dealers or the bullion banks have released or gotten rid of almost 23 000 contracts of gold to the short side and have gone long another 900 so net net about 24 000 contract change in one week's worth of data from the 5th to the 12th of january means that the swap dealers are trying to dump some shorts why are they doing that we'll show here in a minute the on the opposite side of that trade the managed money the financial guys basically dumped 36 000 of their longs they basically capitulated to gold and said you know what we're dumping 36 000 of our longs because we don't see a strong move in gold to the upside because it just been range trading with a very small breakout here that's why that had happened so the managed money capitulated the swap dealers took the other side the position well why didn't gold rise all that much well because net net the open interest actually fell by 13 000 contracts and net net there wasn't a big move up or down overall uh among the gold complex so we did have it move up and down a little bit here and there and recovered about 1900 there briefly and come back down so there's been some volatility but overall not too much going on that's because people are moving to a new contract month so we're going to show you that here on the data previously february was the predominant contract month it had over 400 000 contracts now it's at 234 000 open interest contracts the april month has jumped up to 229 000. so within the next few days i expect to see april to become the dominant contract month in gold what does that mean for those of you not following me when you look at the volume of the futures trades we're talking futures contracts they're taking a bet on the gold price in the future so as time goes on you have to constantly move that flow to a future contract month and so that's what they're doing they're moving off of february and into april that's why we've seen all that movement on the commitment of traders report as people began to position for april now we had a big spike in volume on january 8th which caused the gold price to fall and we've had some some some healthy volume here since then and but overall the gold price has fallen now if we look back a couple of days like on the wednesday data and we go to the settlements you can see that the gold price is being bid up into uh well let's get back to wednesday you see the gold prices being bid up into 1850 on the february contract but if you look lately at tuesday's date or today's date he seemed to bid down to 1840. so net net as they move the contracts from the february to the april contract the price of gold has come down a little bit people are taking bets on a little bit lower gold price now that's just the futures trade so if you just look at the futures price you think our gold's not very strong not a big deal but if we look at the physical trade we see something completely different and that's what's bullish for the gold market going into 2021 one of the factors i'm going to give you another one here on nickler's site gold charts rs i love this site it's a pay site well there's some free data there but if you get into all of the data i get into it's a pay side it's well worth it i'm not affiliated with him so i don't get anything for recommending it but if you want to see the gold changes over time you have to get off the cme group website they charge you a lot more to see the state on the cme group website basically you have to be a big trader to be able to afford their information service the free data only goes back five days as you can see here and in some cases only one day if we're talking about the actual depositories so if you want to see things over time you got to come here and this is the best site for it in any case what's bullish rob you just said something's bullish with gold well here it is nick claret is on this table is tracking all the physical gold movement on the depositories the etfs the funds e-funds everything he's tracking where the physical gold is actually moving to support the gold trade now we noticed that net net on comex there is a change of 715 831 ounces to the upside over the last four weeks seven or fifteen thousand upside four weeks more gold going into the comex vaults what about all the etfs and the funds and comics all added together it gets even bigger over the last month an additional 1.75 million ounces that means people are taking delivery of more physical gold over the last month more physical gold last month so as gold price was falling of the last month guess what people take delivery makes total sense price goes down people take more delivery now something very interesting remember the last video when i talked about the the basic collusion of the lbma in the comics market i called it the lbma comex ponzi scheme what was happening was less delivery on futures contracts on the comex more delivery through exchange for physical on the london market what is exchange for physical you take a futures position on comex you go to london to the physical market you take delivery not not delivery on the comics market but in london there is a rumor out there by some popular gold analysts saying that the comex has threatened our cme group has threatened traders who take physical delivery on the state side market the comex market the futures market i cannot confirm that i do not have a source for that i do not have a url for you or anybody telling me that that's a rumor however whether or not that rumor is true it seems to coincide with the the data on the comex as to how who's taking delivery and where they're not getting off the comics why because the registered category right here there's two main characters three categories on the comics but two main ones registered and eligible registered is the futures exchange where you have a warrant to the medal and it gets exchanged from one party to another when they stand for delivery on the comex eligible is not it's glorified storage so the eligible category has gone up by 859 000 ounces that means people are happy to use the comex approved depositories for regular private storage that has nothing to do with the futures market but they're less content to put it for futures delivery to the tune of down 143 000 ounces so net net the gold has been going into long-term storage not for exchange on a futures contract over the last month to a tune of 143 000 ounces out of registered and a net net of 800 um i'm sorry 859 000 eligible in a net net of 715 000 comics so comex is becoming a storage only a storage only gold market not a physical delivery market and that physical delivery demand is going over through exchange for physical into the london market and i showed you the last video how it was to the tune of 14 times the amount of delivery on the comex and here we go again another big print exchange for physical on the february contract 4 218 contracts worth of gold going from the comics to the london market and in april because we know that's becoming the dominant contract month 640 contracts people are taking delivery through london not the comex and we see it clearly here in this data as well in the four-week trend what that means is people are trying to get physical they're not sourcing off the comex so do we believe that comex available free gold for futures is really that robust i don't know they're not doing it right now the last four weeks on the comex they're switching over to the london market that is an interesting development in the data now we're going to go on to talk about bonds what does bonds have to do with gold well bond rates have been falling over the last year we're going to explain that so over the last year almost universally with the exception of brazil on this chart in switzerland on this chart from bloomberg we've seen falling one-year uh bond rates on the 10-year sort of the benchmark 10-year has been falling over last year why has it been falling over the last year well the economy's been deflating okay money printing has ramped up this year but the economy has been deflating and so that's caused bond yields to fall why because of the shutdowns however it started to ramp back up over the last month almost universally with the exception of portugal 10-year bond rates are up look at this one-month column up point 33 basis point i'm sorry 33 basis points in brazil 14 in the united states the united states benchmark 10-year rate is now over a percent which has caused a lot of whole blue in the financial press oh no we're over a percent which is really in the grand scheme of things over time doesn't mean anything however the trend over one percent is fairly significant in the us because bond rates have been so low for so long and across the rest of the world again with the exception of portugal bond rates have been up now we're not in a massive bond rate bull market but the fact they've been moving up over the last month is a big signal about what's coming to the economy what is coming to the economy well we go now to a reuters article from the fed fed sees rising bond yields inflation expectations as a possible win now we have talked about in the last few months on my channel how the fed has wanted to get interest rates up they've wanted inflation rates up in particular and uh here's a statement from readers the first paragraph will basically describe their strategy a recent rise in u.s bond yields and market inflation expectations have bolstered federal reserve officials hopes that the central bank's new monetary policy approach that i've been talking about the last few months is taking hold and could be further buoyed buoyed if the democratic-led congress rolls out more spending we're going to see where that spending is coming and that's going to be bullish for gold in the long term why i think we're going to have a breakout overall in the gold pattern is because the expectation of higher rates anyway in this article they go on to talk about uh richmond federal president thomas barkin saying i'm encouraged to see the rise of market indicator of inflation expectations uh reflation trade so they're starting to reflate the economy so after the shutdowns are trying to refight the economy they're trying to jumpstart inflation this is what's coming and this is what st louis fed president james bullard says the ingredients for higher inflation are in place you have very powerful fiscal policy in place and perhaps more to come in other words physical policy is where they're engineering the inflation uh as well as with democrats now to control the white house and the u.s senate house of representatives they have full control they're going to spend spend spend so now we go to an article in the new york times biden outlines 1.9 trillion spending package to combat the virus and the downturn so they're gonna spend spend spend they've been saying that they're going to spend spend spend and there's going to be a change in taxes they're going to extend higher tax rates as you can see here in this article too many families so they're going to give some tax incentives to regular everyday families they're going to increase taxes on corporations in the rich according to this article mr biden plans to unveil another larger set of spending proposals in february and it began laying the groundwork to finance those efforts by raising taxes on corporations and the rich he drew a sharp contrast between the suffering of low wage workers and those struggling without a paycheck with the wealthiest americans saying there's a growing divide among the few people at the very top they're doing quite well in the rest of america now he is true he is correct about that but this is more socialist policy coming and i don't mean that in a derogatory term i just mean it in the descriptive sense when you're redistributing wealth that is socialism so going forward more socialist policy rising rates get the picture more taxes coming rising rates what happens to the corporates when they pay more tax as their tax rates rise what happens to wage rates and hiring they both stagnate so expect more stagnation from corporate jobs and corporate incomes starting in 2021 at the same time the fed is pushing inflation you get the picture your dollar is going to be weak eb tucker said that on my channel last week he expects her to be a weak dollar policy i agree with him that means your dollar will buy less and it also means your wages and your job prospects are going to stagnate meaning more trouble for the middle class as translated that's what that means and not to be outdone in today's news on cnbc treasury nominee yellen says u.s can afford higher corporate tax rate if it coordinates with other countries in other words hey if we raise corporate tax rates across the world's economies it won't be so bad in the u.s the u.s will be under the shadow of the world and we won't get blamed for these higher tax rates is essentially what she's saying she says we look forward actively to working with other countries through the organization of economic cooperation and development oecd negotiating on taxes on multinational corporations trying to stop what has been destructive global race to the bottom of corporate taxation she said in response to a question from senator mike crapo now she's going to be the secretary treasury she's the nominee she's going to run the treasury okay of the united states they're going to raise taxes raise taxes more spending higher inflation rates higher bond rates that's going to continue to destroy the middle class it's it's going to stagnate some of the corporates in america across the world which could lead to a fall in the overall stock market rise in bond rates fall and stock mark stock market weaker dollar weaker purchasing power that's what's coming that's why i think it's bullish for gold and bullish for silver and i think if you want to invest in the precious metals now would be the time to do so why the price before the prices have hit their big breakout and i think we're probably going to see it break out sometime in 2021. as to when we'll have to see the trades now on to the very special announcement that i have guys i have set up our second virtual conference this is going to happen on january 28th as you can see here at the top the times from 11am to 9pm central standard time uh if you're on the west coast that'll be 9 a.m to 7 p.m on the east coast that'll be noon to 10 p.m your time and we have just announced this we are going to have a lot of speakers at this conference you can get to it by going to hopkins.com that is the platform we'll be hosting it on four slash events forward slash solutions 2021 and you can register for free where we will talk about what i've been talking about on my channel and more so some of the sessions we're going to have surviving a currency crisis with fernando aguirre who survived the argentinian currency crisis he's going to give his his perspective on what could happen if we have a dollar crisis we're going to get a strong historical perspective on america's economic troubles from a person who has dr scott craig who has a doctorate in the field of history we're going to be talking about silver demand with miles franklin we're going to be talking about gold and silver with james anderson of vesti bullion we're going to bring back dezzo carrion von hess to the program to talk about bitcoin i'm going to be uh furthering my conversation on the gold ponzi unraveling lbma comic scheme uh we're going to be sorting the noise to find good information that'll be with one alex newman we're going to be talking with the technical traders about managing financial risk we're going to be talking about with jerry huang principal of gemini capital about mining stocks if you're in the mining stocks that would be a great session for you to attend and we're going to bring in a conversation on preparedness daisy luther from the organic prepper a site in which i love very much is going to be talking about preparing for harder times that we may see going forward as we see the global financial system start to hit the end of its current life cycle and move into the future life cycle all these guys will be at the conference again you can go to hoppin dot com forward slash events forward slash solutions 2021 sign up for free it is free for attendees guys hope you will join i'll leave the link down in the description as well hope to see you there i think it's be a lot of fun actually the last two hours of conference we're gonna be doing an after party you guys can come in with uh myself and some of the other presenters and just have a conversation for a couple hours ask questions you've got mining stock questions gold questions economic questions preparedness questions currency crisis questions we're going to talk about all of that during the conference so love to see you guys there please join us at the conference and i will be unveiling as well for the first time in the conference my overarching thoughts on what the new global monetary regime is going to be and why they're putting it into place i've talked about elements of it from the cryptocurrencies gold and silver the fiat dollars so on and so forth on the channel but i haven't sort of circled all the dots together and put it into one cohesive argument i'll be starting that conversation here at the conference january 28th please join it you guys will get that information you'll get a lot of other good information as well it is free for you to attend i'm paying this out of my own pocket to help everybody in 2021 because i know there's a lot of concern about the economy a lot of people are writing me emails and writing comments on my videos asking for this type of conference so i put it together very specially for you at my own expense i'm not asking you guys to pay for this to help you guys do your playing for 2021 i really have scheduled this to help you guys out hope that you will attend we're going to take up to 2 500 attendees and at that i'm going to cap it at that point so get your registration in as soon as you can it starts in about 12 days hope to see you guys there that's going to wrap the video for today i'm off to do more research on more videos this week we're going to come back to the lbma in the comex later this week and we're going to offer more clarification about that market stay tuned for that and many other things on our channel goldsilverpros.com thanks guys see you next time [Music]