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right well I've got 1103 and particularly because we are really gonna do our best to limit this to an hour I am going to dive in so welcome everyone to our first new online climate spotlight series where we're featuring some of Maine's most innovative thinkers businesses and conservationists with an aim to help me people understand how climate change impacts Maine as well as information to take action my name is Eliza Donahue I am director of advocacy at Maine Audubon and like I said before I'm so pleased to have so many people joining us today we are moving towards 100 participants right now and I know even more registered so share folks will be dropping in throughout the hour so we'll be hosting on these free discussions every other Tuesday between now and late September on topics such as community and rooftop solar natural climate solutions transportation and home energy efficiency you can register at Maine Audubon dot or slash energy and also get a little bit more information about the topics that we'll be covering in the future so why are we hosting this series right now well in 2019 the state of Maine committed to among the most ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in the nation the law that set those reduction targets in place also created the main climate Council made up of businesspeople lawmakers municipal officials that were represented representatives and other stakeholders and task them with creating a plan for how to reduce our emissions as well as prepare Maine for adapting to climate change that updated plan is due in early winter and climate policy and now it's natural overlap with economic recovery and equity concerns is spread and Center in the mind of Maine people and major decision makers and the series our aim is to give you the information to take action on climate in our your own home and business and Dave day life as well as inform you on how to engage in creating a strong actionable main climate action plan so we're really excited to kick off our kickoff event this morning featuring two of Maine's top climate scientists dr. Sean Buerkle and Stacey now we're calling this event the state of Maine's climate and we'll hear about what Sean and Stacey know about how Maine's climate has been changing over the past decades and what we've done to address it so far dr. Sean Buerkle is the Maine state climatologist and a research assistant professor at the University of Maine he received his PhD in Earth Sciences from University of Maine and his research focuses on climate and Ice Sheet modeling environmental change paleoclimatology and data visualization since early 2012 he has been building the climate we analyzer a website that provides access to climate and weather models in historical station data Stacey nap is emissions inventory section manager in the air Bureau of the Maine Department of Environmental Protection her team assists with the implementation of systems utilized in the collection tabulation and dissemination of air emissions inventory data for the main air emissions inventory reporting system Sean will give his presentation first all by Stacey and we'll wrap up hopefully by about 11:45 or so to take questions and I know that Stacey plans and I'm so thankful for the Stacey that she'll also end with a few notes on how to engage with the work of the main climate Council so before we get started just a couple quick tech notes this is a zoom webinar which means that participants are all muted with their video off again each presenter will share their screen for the presentation and you can type questions in the Q&A box found at the bottom of your screen and we Nick London Eye from Maine Audubon will collect them and dole out some questions at the end so big thanks again to Sean and Stacey and let's get started Oh Thank You Eliza and good morning everyone it's I'm happy to be here I wish I could be in person I really do miss giving in-person presentations but those will return eventually and I'm going to switch my screen over to the slide show they're with me Oh Eliza I see that I'm unable to share my screen right now says host disabled attendee screen sharing sorry about that let me yeah go see that's something Nick try now shot great thanks okay I assume everyone can see my slides now right yes okay thank you okay well again afternoon and as Eliza said in the introduction I'm Maine state climatologist and I'm based at the University of Maine as a research assistant professor and so what I like to do today is give you an overview of climate change main climate impacts and I'd also like to note that I have been serving on the scientific and technical subcommittee of the main climate Council and I was lead of the climate subsection of that and this presentation today is an adaptation of presentation that I gave in June to a full meeting of the climate Council and towards the end of the of the talk I would like to show a couple slides of Maine's climate future 2020 which is a document that we produced here at University of Maine in cooperation with between climate change Institute's Maine Sea Grant and also the scooting Institute and a lot of helpful information and perhaps many of you have seen that document and I'd also like to just very briefly show you some of the tools available on climate or analyzer and also the main climate office website that I've been developing for about a year now it's now moving on presentation outline and I see I I may have erred in this I meant to I'm going to set a full screen because I think you probably see the slides on the left and you think by now I would have mastered zoom but sometimes I still goof yeah Sean either the view or the slideshow should work okay okay this should be better very good now you should see full screen okay so I'd like to go over means historical temperature record that is since late 1800s and also discuss projections for how the climate is expected to warm over the next century I discussed the significance of changing season lengths and how that impacts many sectors of the economy and also in environments and both plant response animal response precipitation and drought of course most recently we've experienced what's sometimes referred to as a flash drought that's a storm drought that emerges somewhat unexpectedly although in some parts of state conditions have really alleviated some especially in western Maine and I'll try to put a like to climate context and that leads into extreme weather we've been experiencing extreme weather particularly over the last 15 or 20 years extreme weather being increased frequency of both heat waves and cold waves and also extreme precipitation events which of course leads into the previous section and then I'll show you a couple slides on changes in snow and hydrology how the snow season is changing and how that's impacting stream flow and also groundwater supplies okay this figure here shows Maine's statewide mean annual temperature since 1895 and it shows that on a linear trend there's been a three degree fahrenheit warming and you can also see that there is some structure to this there's what we would call inter-annual variability that's year-to-year fluctuations but also multi-decade changes for example the early 1900 so you can see that there are three very cold years in there and then I got warm in the 1930s into the 1950s then a relatively moderate period for a few decades right up until about the late 1990s or so and then things start to get really warm and so the of course we've been experiencing many a unique climate in the history of Maine since the late 1990s that's both in terms of the summer climate winter climate and many of the changes that we have seen it's really emerged in the last 20 or 30 years and I'll also speak to the variability on multi-decade timescales because at that is important because it it's something that we need to consider in in these future projections which I show here in this slide over all over the next century how much Maine warms of course will depend on on global decisions on socio economic decisions in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and how the international community cooperates but this slide here shows using the latest generation or the available models that have that project climate into the future for Maine we show three particular scenarios ranging from the low emission scenario in which there's a dedicated dedication to halt greenhouse gas emissions and eventually reduce them to zero and then the hi mission scenario which we would call our CP 8.5 that's one that in some cases it's considered as a business as usual but it's actually taken more of as an extreme case where there's heavy coal use and no real international effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and we don't know which scenario will play out in the future I mean we can guess and as it turns out all said the world seems to be trending towards something a little less than our CPA 0.51 there's been a push towards cleaner energy sources and the assumptions of high coal use into the future may not pan out so that would be that would be good but there's still a spread of physically plausible outcomes between now in the next century and it's up to us and in this country in our state as well because we've of course can do things right at home to contribute to how we shape the future but there's a spread of physically plausible outcomes and ranging from a climate warming that is not not too much more than what we have already experienced ranging to something that's much more extreme would be very impactful now I getting back to the variability that I had mentioned in the first slide I like to show this because many people have questions about well isn't the climate warming because there are cycles and there is variability in the climate system and climate scientists understand very well what factors are involved perhaps the most significant in terms of natural variability arises from major volcanic eruptions such as mountain Pinatubo that are up to 1991 and early in the 1900s as well but this figure here shows a comparison of observations of global temperature and have you set black in comparison to model an ensemble of models that project into the future but in this in this case this is the historical overlap interval in which the models are compared to see how well they do and what we find is that in simulations in which the the climate models have greenhouse gases and human impact held constant that's what we see in blue and you can see that the signal departs that in the in the recent climate would be cooler than observations if greenhouse gas emissions had not been increasing now alternatively in the red line we see the simulation in which greenhouse gases increase in accord to the historical record over the past century and I like to highlight that the the emergence of when it really appeared to become apparent or measurable that that the greenhouse gas warming and impact that started in the 1800's with the onset of the Industrial Revolution that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in a manifestation of a changing climate appears to have emerged in the signal from the noise of natural variability sometime between about 1930 1950 and then since then there's been a significant departure and it's always important to have a historical perspective and also to validate models of projection to the future validate them against observations and and data and that's one of the reasons why I showed that slide now in terms of the changing climate and changes in the future one of the major impacts in Maine and elsewhere is how the climate warming which is somewhat abstract we will look at a time series of say 50 years from now it might be three degrees warmer well what does that mean and how does that impact ecosystems and forest migration and also how does it impact agriculture we can think of that in terms of how the seasons change in terms of their length and so this figure here shows the temperature annual cycle for three periods in blue is a period that's for the interval between 1895 and 1914 and the brown indicates the climate of 1995 2014 and then in red is a is a projected climate for roughly centered on 2050 from a projective model and you can see that with each step there's been an increase of the length of the warm season which also translates to an increase of the of the growing season and a reduction of the winter season and so over the past century Maine's climate has changed such that the growing season is now about two weeks longer than it was a century ago it's projected to be likely another two weeks longer by about 2050 and again depending upon the emissions choices set that we make and the climate realization that emerges from what the emissions are in the future precipitation one thing that has been readily apparent over the past couple decades is a shift towards more intense extreme rainfall which I'll talk more about in a moment but the historical record of annual precipitation has also increased over the past century and in particular since the mid 2000s or so there was a a what interval that has said it is a significant feature in this curve but over the past century there's been a six inch increase in total annual accumulation but this figure in itself it does not speak to the delivery in terms of what season of the year and whether or not the precipitation is being evenly distributed or becoming in more intense events and I will mention that much of the precipitation increase that we've experienced in the last 15 years or so has been occurring in the summertime and that's despite the the drought of 2016 in the 2017 and in this most recent so far temporary abnormal drives as to what is now ranked a moderate drought extreme weather as I as I mentioned extreme weather is becoming more common and that's in in many places if not most places across Northern Hemisphere and it's due to changes in atmospheric circulation now I imagine or picture the jet stream that you might see in a nightly news forecast the jet stream which is a currents of fast flowing air in the lower stratosphere that has a linkage to the track of storms lower down near the surface and certain patterns can can get locked into place for several days or even a few weeks or season and these blocking patterns are part of what causes extreme weather to develop whether it's a cold wave or heat wave or even extreme precipitation because when there's a strong blocking pattern when that pattern finally breaks down the very steep contrast that develops between warm and cold on the other side of the wave that can fuel an intense storm and so one thing that we've noticed has been an increase in yeah in terms of extreme precipitation about 50% 55% increase in annual heavy daily precipitation across both Maine in the US Northeast and in Maine we found that there's been an increase in occurrence of high precipitation events of different ranks so two inch per day three inch and four inch now I mentioned Jetstream and here's a at what I what we would call a temperature anomaly map that's the departure of temperature from baseline climatology and here it's 1979 to 2000 that's the shaded background map and then a schematic of the Jetstream overprinted and ice a schematic but this is that the general track of the Jetstream for this particular day this was Thursday October 31st 2019 which was lead up to a major windstorm on November 1st which many of us may remember but there is a strong blocking pattern that had developed and I had mentioned the the contrasting temperatures on how the side of a particular feature and so part of the intense windstorm that we experienced it links back to this blocking pattern and you may recall I know it's been several months ago but at the time California was experiencing severe wildfires and they're being fanned by what are called the Santa Ana winds well those winds were being fanned by this pattern as well this blocking pattern that was driving circulation in driving intense dry winds off the continent from the interior of the continent into California and so it's interesting that there's an extreme event on the west coast same time as extreme event on the East Coast and are linked by this c rculation pattern I remember this very clearly summer in March 2012 I think this is a textbook example of an extreme event this was a heat wave in the 3rd week in March which temperatures gone to the low 80s across the state northern Maine most places got into the mid to high 70s but central Maine Southern Maine temperatures as high as 83 I think in Bangor have got to 84 and this pictures several years old now for my my son March 18th and no snow on the ground which was just for me it was a pretty new experience because I remember as a kid growing up in the Bangor area March was always the snowiest month pretty much late February right into mid-march and well this event occurred because of a major blocking pattern that developed and heat and humidity built over the eastern half of North America you can see this it's depicting a blocking high pressure and and that when that pattern finally broke well then temperatures went started below normal but this was records the first 80 degree measurements most places in New England by 3 to 4 weeks in terms of and there were records and main set by 17 degrees daily high temperature records beaten by 17 degrees Fahrenheit typically a high temperature record is beaten by 1/2 degree or 1 or 2 degrees and so this was truly an extreme event and it's what we would expect in a warming climate in which the summers are getting longer and the winners are getting shorter it means that summer-like circulation can happen earlier in the year and likewise it can persist later in the year and I'll just give one more example that I don't have a slide for but the warmers fall and record domain was 2017 and it was an example of the summer season extending into the fall likewise there are impacts major environmental impacts including earlier snowmelt and this slide here shows that there's been a documented trend towards earlier winter spring melt runoff so from melting snow by seven to fourteen days and that's since 1950 and these trends are projected to continue as the climate warms now there can still be some years that seem to buck the trend and and recently just in the past four years or so there have been near record-setting snowfall in the northern part of Maine caribou I think two winters ago there was a record snowfall and even this season the snowfall was well above normal I think it was probably the second or third snowiest winter that persisted well into spring in northern Maine so there are exceptions and if we were to look at the statewide distribution of some of these records we find some interesting patterns ice out I'm a Lakes is occurring earlier earlier I think we've all experienced this and again it follows a changing length of the seasons lakes are now tending to ice out anywhere from one week to close to two weeks earlier and this is projected to continue as the climate warms again association with the changing length of the seasons and likewise there's been an increased magnitude and frequency of small floods and the stats here show the relative increases over the past 50 and 75 years and some of these floods can come from extreme precipitation events or a fresh shot that happens early in really fast because of a jump in temperatures but when they these defense do happen they're extremely impactful and can can cause a lot of damage and the hundred-year three-day peak flows at that so that that would be the the spring fresh yet those are projected to to decrease and again with linkage to decreasing late winter snowpack now the some of the complexities could be that some years sir as we've seen particularly in northern Maine there Mase there could still be some record-setting years in terms of snowfall that affect say one part of the state or yet it may we it won't be that every single year the these peak flows decrease but over time we we do expect that this trend will continue but it's always important to be aware of some of the exceptions that could emerge I list a summary here with a lot of bullets and I I don't think that I'm not going to read through each one you can take a look in terms of how the statewide annual temperature has changed about three degrees Fahrenheit over the last century and models predicts anywhere from two to ten degrees warming over the next century again depends on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions it's been changes in annual precipitation overall increase for the past century to about six inches and but there's more complexity we look at how that's distributed seasonally and also whether or not it's big it's coming and throughout the year or in more extreme precipitation events separated by periods of dryness extreme weather such as heat waves droughts heat waves cold waves small-scale droughts and also storms wind storms those are things that we've been experiencing and expect to continue and systems are responding to these changes responding to the the warming in terms of how it impacts the the temperature annual cycle the length of winter the length of summer and so looking into the future there are significant just likely ahead and again will be up to us here locally on decisions that we make in how we contribute to the overall landscape of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and then of course something many things are out of our control which in terms of international agreements and tell the Internet international community receipts and now very briefly being mindful time here I just wanted to show you a couple I'm going to switch I'm going to switch my screen here to web browser just so I can show you the main climate office website and also climate R analyzer you okay here we go okay the main climate office website I have been building this as part of what I do is the state climatologist to provide a place where people can have easy access to Maine based climate data and the website address is MCO that you made the edu and on this you can access daily data and for example here in this page it shows station data from the Bangor International Airport and you can select the year the bank will record goes back to 1953 and let's go to 2012 here's the the 2012 heatwave in March for example you can export the data that you see here as a CSV file they can open up in spreadsheet software you can select from these stations that are here on the map so say if you wanted to see data for Portland that comes up there's also I've put together a selected the wrong one monthly seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation time series and maps and also by climate division across the states we can look at the northern climate division central and coastal or statewide average and you can choose from temperature anomaly its departure from in this case I use it a 1901 to 2100 year long climatology average monthly temperature maximum temperature minimum also precipitation and I've added just recently just in the last couple weeks a page for Gulf Maine temperatures and I've also included by all regions right along the coast I haven't added a map to delineate those yet but I will soon and also look at a North Atlantic wide average of sea surface temperature you can on a point in the chart and that will bring up a map of either sea surface temperature or the anomaly departure from normal and then there are other resources on the page hourly weather forecast maps and climate outlook maps from NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center including drought information and temperature outlooks for the coming week month and season and also a list of publications and one publication I'll mention is at the top here climate future 2020 which we've released this in early March this year and if you haven't had the opportunity to look through this document I recommended there's a lot of information summarized I think in a pretty comprehensive manner an update to our understanding of climate change in Maine and a lot of this information has or much of this information has been delivered to the main climate council and the scientific and technical subcommittee has assembled a report that will soon be made public and so that will also be a resource that I think that you will find quite valuable and then the last thing I just want to mention climate reanalyze our website where you can access global data sets from well station data climate models weather forecast models and in the interest of time I don't want to belabor this but I'll go to the site index where you can get an idea of the content on the website and this is climate reanalyze ER org and I thank you very much for your time and I look forward to answering questions and now I'll turn this over to Stacey you you well Stacey ear on mute just so you know and actually before you begin I just want to say very quickly first of all Thank You Sean second of all speaking of extreme climate events or extreme weather events there's a huge storm over my house right now I don't know what happens if we lose power here but to the folks watching at home please just check your your inboxes we will get back to you as soon as we can with new information if that were happening if 2020 so I assume that the worst is gonna happen but we're good so far and Stacey thank you very much go ahead okay Oh what do you see right now see the start of your slide show progress about greenhouse gas furnace and you just see a slide a single slide yes okay so first thank you Nick and Eliza for having me I was really excited to be invited to present we in my group work with emissions data all day every day and it's rarely of interest to a lot of people um is that we've been really excited since the release of our latest report that so many people have had some interest so I am stationed and Eliza said I head up the emissions inventory section at Maine DEP and as you probably already know in January we released our eighth biennial report on progress toward greenhouse gas reduction goals and so this is a biennial report comes out once every two years so the next one will come out in January of 2022 but this last one released in January 2020 has received a lot of attention and we are just thrilled that so many people are interested in our data so my plan for today is to walk you through some of the results that we presented in the eighth biennial report and then hopefully we'll have some time for questions at the end now before I get started because you may not have read the eighth and the seventh and the sixth and the fifth biennial reports I just want to remind you that where we were before the latest report if he when we released the seventh biennial report we had actually seen a slight uptick in emissions and so we were very nervous about where we were in regards to meeting our 2020 goal and then the more lofty goals that word set into legislation so I am very pleased to report that advanced here that with two more years of data added to this series that we now have a decrease in emissions again which is hugely exciting so what you're looking at here are our gross emissions that is the blue line at the top so you'll see two lines there's the dark blue line at the top those are our gross emissions and that is everything okay that's all greenhouse gas emissions that's carbon dioxide that's methane it's nitrous oxide that's our sf6 HSCs the works the green line just below is the co2 from burning fossil fuel so that is just co2 and as you can see that is the lion's share of our emissions right so co2 from burning fossil fuel accounts for ninety percent of our gross emissions and then that remaining ten is the additional greenhouse gases so what you see here this is a time series from 1990 to 2017 now in the 1990 our gross greenhouse gas emissions were at 21 point two and these are in million metric tons of co2 equivalents and the co2 equivalents just means that it's all of the greenhouse gases and not just co2 you'll see that those gross emissions right they rose until about 2002 so we see an increase from 1990 to 2002 and then we see this nice steady decline and here's this little uptick that I was telling you about in the last report that we were nervous about but now we see a decline again which is great so we are now as a 20-17 at seventeen point five million metric tons of co2 equivalents now conveniently and i triple-checked this because this was too convenient that is exactly 17.5 percent lower than the 1990 levels now you may remember that our goal for 2020 is to be 10% below the 1990 levels so we needed to be at nineteen point one in 2000 and we are currently at seventeen point five so we are on track to meeting our 2020 goal now we do have a few more years I know that for you and I it is 2020 today but the data do lag a little bit so it takes some time to accumulate that data and to do the analysis so we have a couple more years before we know if we have met our 2020 goal but I am optimistic which is great all right so let us talk about these goals a little bit before we go any further many of you have probably seen this but the solid line here over on the left that is what we know right that is that the data that we do have so that is the 1990 to 2017 data and you can see this peak up here in 20 X Q's me 2002 and then this nice steady decline through 2017 so our 2010 goal was to simply be at the 1990 level so that's this dot right here and we successfully met that goal which is great now our next goal is the 2020 goal and that is to be 10% below the 1990 level and we are on track to meeting that which is wonderful news now the next couple of goals the 2030 goal is to be 45 percent below 1990 levels and the 2050 goal is to be 80 percent below 1990 levels and if you follow this green trendline here that kind of slopes down that is sort of a best fit between our the 2002 data and a 2017 so if we follow this line and we can realize the declines we have seen since 2002 then we are on track but it's going to take a lot of work to realize there's a mission reduction so we've got our work cut out for us which is why we have the climate Council so let me back up a little bit and talk to you a little bit about where we get this data like how we track our greenhouse gas data so at DEP we use EPA state inventory tool which we call the fit now this is a publicly available tool so anybody can go out to the website and I've listed here on a pas website and download this tool it's an excel tool it's got a series of modules and within each module there are gosh like 50 tabs so it's a very involved model but the beauty of that is that it is populated with default data from government databases from federal data but it allows a lot of tweaking for States so we can go in there and try to make sure that that data is this accurate as possible and really reflects the emissions that we see in Maine so the foundational data set for this it comes from the energy a diminished Information Administration or EIA and they receive lots of reports on fuel data and that is as we saw co2 from burning fossil fuels 90 percent of our emissions right so that fuel data is enormous ly important so they pull all of that fuel data into a giant database and they run a model and it produces what's called this said it's a state energy data system and so that is this massive database of the consumption data its fuel consumption data and that is a national standard and it's it's by state and by sector it's broken down the different types of fuels so the EPA pulls all of that feds data into the city along with a number of other data sources and they create models of our emissions by state by sector by fuel so then states can go in download this tool and tweak that data so from Maine we have some data that we know that the federal government doesn't necessarily have and we believe that our data is better in some of these areas for example we submit specific vehicle miles traveled for Maine we update the solid waste landfills we go through and edit some of the industrial processes so if we don't have the production of some material we go through and remove that industry from Maine because it doesn't exist in this state so we were able to really hone this tool and make it very Maine specific which is why we are so confident in the data now you're going to see data presented in this and the report in two different ways to different nits so you're going to see million metric tons of co2 and this is just co2 primarily from fossil fuel combustion and this is presented in this it by sector by residential commercial industrial transportation and electric utility so that's where you see the breakdown into those sectors that is for co2 only but again that's 90% of our emissions right you'll also see things reported in million metric tons of co2 equivalence now when you see that little e at the end when you see the equivalence that means that we're talking about all greenhouse gases not just co2 but we're adding in the methane and nitrous oxide the HSC is the PFC is the sf6 all of the greenhouse gases so that is reported by source category so that's where we get our energy and our agriculture our waste in our industrial process category so you'll see there report it a little bit differently I'll point that out as we go but I just wanted you to have a little background so let's jump into the data so first we will look at gross emissions for 2017 by source category real quick you can see there's a winner here right so energy energy makes up 90% of where our missions come from it's our demand for and consumption of Energy's the clear majority of Maine's greenhouse gas emissions now industrial processes agriculture and waste all added up contribute about 10% now that's 10% that we need to look into for sure but you can see energy is a bigger piece of this pie so might get a bit more of attention so let's take this big blue piece of the pie and break it down a bit further so here you can see Maine's energy consumption over the whole time series not just 2017 this is from 1990 to 2017 and this is going to be by fuel source right so you see all the different fuel sources over on the right hand side now the biggie at the bottom is petroleum so in 2017 petroleum products accounted for 49% of all of the energy consumed and 84 percent of the co2 emissions so that's why there's so much focus on petroleum products is because it's the lion's share of our co2 emissions now the good news is we have seen a reduction so you can see in this blue segment if you just look from 1990 to 2017 you can see the 2017 point is lower right so we have seen a reduction in petroleum products and the big piece of this is actually our residual fuel oil so that's the really dirty fuel oil and that consumption has decreased 95% since 1990 and I'll show you that in a minute but that is a huge piece and that is a massive success so we're really proud of that so that has been a big driver in the overall decline of greenhouse gas emissions now I do want to point out well Maine does rely pretty heavily on petroleum products at this point to meet our energy demands we have seen significant reductions in co2 emissions due to things like switching to lower carbon fuels so switching to natural gas right you can see on this figure this green segment here that pops up right around 1999-2000 that's natural gas so we've seen a huge increase in the use of natural gas and that is a or carbon fuel so it's going to emit a bit less than residual fuel oil we've also seen decreased emissions due to increased energy efficiency so things like the cafe standards for vehicles and we've also seen an increase in renewable resources for energy so that is amazing now you can also see in this figure our renewable resources I just mentioned so see this turquoise segment at the top over on the right that's wind the point being you can actually see it now you can see that there's a turquoise segment now which is awesome and that turquoise segment is getting bigger so that is wind just one of the many renewable resources that we've been focused on using Mora for our energy okay so let us take this blue piece right down at the bottom here and break that up a little bit more and let's look at petroleum consumption by fuel type so you can see exactly what types of petroleum we're using because you can kind of guess at what we're using them for right so the two Biggie's at the bottom here again this is the time series so 1990 to 2017 distillate fuel and motor gasoline those are the biggies but I also want to point out this orange section at the top so this is the residual fuel oil I was talking about and you can see how we have a 95 percent reduction in the use of residual fuel oil and that is a huge success now some of that is switching over to natural gas some of that is switching over to renewables okay so let us move from fuel type to sector so let's look at petroleum consumption by sector a quick glance you can see again there's a winner here right right at the top is transportation transportation has been in the lead since 1990 all the way to 2017 and unfortunately they are also the only sector that has seen an increase in petroleum consumption all of the other sectors have seen a decrease not necessarily a huge one but they have seen a decrease but not transportation transportation is up so it's switch gears a little bit and look at co2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion by sector again transportation is in the lead here you can see this large purple segment that's transportation and transportation has produced over half of 54% of the co2 emissions in Maine in 17 so that's a big chunk now I also want to focus your attention a little bit on residential the residential section is at 19% so that's a big piece of the pie that's definitely something that we need to be looking at I know when I go to emissions inventory conferences I'm always frankly a little embarrassed because we go and they're like why do you guys have so many emissions from the residential sector and it is because we use fuel oil so the national average consumption of fuel oil for residential is only about 8% and in Maine it's over 50% so we use a lot more fuel oil in the state of Maine than other states do so just an area that we need to look at obviously our infrastructure is set up so that that is very convenient but we do have natural gas coming in we do have a lot of wood burning homes so there are other sources of energy and we just need to kind of look at that mix and see how we might do it a little bit better all right so now look at let's look at the same data this is the 2017 data let's look at the same data over time I think there we go and you can see this is the right one yes this is the right one you can see transportation in the lead as well right so these are the emissions we just talked about in 2017 transportation made up 54% of the co2 emissions well you can see that they made up the majority of the emissions dating all the way back to 1990 as well right there at the tippity-top and again all of the other sectors have seen a reduction by one strategy or another since 1990 there's been a reduction there co2 emissions but transportation has gone up so even residential have gone down you can see they scrape by just by 0.3% reduction but hey the start commercial is down 24% industrial is down 58% and electric utilities I want to point out so take a look at that turquoise line right electric utilities since 1990 are down 50% in their co2 emissions now more importantly I want to put up if you look at the 2002 peak in electric utility so that peak in the turquoise line since 2002 we have seen an 83 percent decline and so that is in large part to a switching our energy fuel sources are electric utility fuel sources toward renewable energy sources so that is that is a huge success and those are the sorts of statistics that we need to build on to be able to meet our goals okay so in summary I know that was a lot of data but let me give you the highlights here so in summary gross emissions in 2017 were 17.5 below 1990 levels 17.5 percent below 1990 levels so we are on target for our 2020 goal right so our 2020 goal is to be 10 percent below 1990 levels so as long as we can keep on this track we're going to be good to meet our 2020 goal now 90% of those emissions are the result of energy consumption we use a lot of energy we demand it and that is mostly from combustion of petroleum products 54% of main co2 emissions in 2017 were from the transportation sector with residential being a close second right at 19 percent co2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the electric power sector have decreased by 83 percent since they peaked in 2002 so there are successes here and the transportation and residential sectors have both the highest consumption of petroleum and the highest emissions of co2 from burning fossil fuels so those are just the highlights again let me just remind you of our goals right so we're we've met our 2010 goal we're on track for our 2020 goal things look really good but our 2030 goal and our 2050 goal notes are going to be harder you know so if we can realize the emission reductions that we've seen since 2002 then we're on track but to realize those emissions we are going to have to make some changes right so we have kind of already taken advantage of the easy wind the switching from higher carbon fuels to lower carbon fuels we've already done that so we need to find some new innovative things to do to cut our greenhouse gas emissions so that's why the governor formed the climate council to figure out how we're going to do this right to get the right people in the room talking to each other and figuring out a plan now you probably know the climate Council has been working very hard for the last six months or so the different working groups have been meeting together to come up with proposed strategies so ways they think in their area we can get the biggest bang for a buck in terms of greenhouse gas reductions and they just presented these findings last month so I know that that meeting is available online you can go ahead and actually there's two meetings they split it up into two days so you can go online and you can watch those presentations everything from the climate Council by the way is is recorded and available online for you to watch after the fact but what I want to talk to you about here is that the main climate Council is really trying to get stakeholders involved they want as much public participation as possible and unfortunately due to kovat 19 they've had to cancel a lot of the public stakeholder meetings that were planned just because it wasn't safe so they're trying to find ways to engage the public more ways to get more people involved as many people have involved if possible so you can see here they have a website climate council main backup and there are a number of different ways that you can get involved okay I urge you to go to this website and take a look if you have even the slightest little bit of interest go in and take a look there are a number of ways that you can get involved that you know range from very little some energy to more participation and for this group I specifically like to point out the option to invite the climate council to present to your group so you can do that you can say hey I've got a group of stakeholders that are really interested in learning more I can someone come and present to us and they can make that happen so this series seems to be a perfect fit for a presentation like that and I'm happy to get the ball rolling if that would be helpful and reach out to my contacts of the climate council and see what we can do about setting up presentation I'm so think about it here is my contact information if anyone has any questions that we don't get to today here's my email and my phone number and feel free to reach out to me that they can engage in climate council's work Rena bond is really excited about everything that's happening with the climate council I served on one of the working groups the natural working lands working group our director of conservation Sally Stockwell is on the scientific and technical subcommittee with Shaun and we're really invested as in and work as an organization in implementing a successful actionable climate action plan so I would really encourage folks to go to the website that Stacey just shared and then also to stay in touch with me not Aban so we it's our aim to bring additional attention to the to the various opportunities that will continue to arise to get people engaged with the climate council because this is going to work or is going to work best when people give as much input as possible this is about making a climate action plan that works for all Maine people and that means that we need to socialize this plan and get as much input as possible so please what be sure to follow those links and stay in touch with the great mailing list that the climate council has that me an Audubon has and and stay tuned Nick what do you think shall we dive into some questions how you let's let's dive in we're nearing the end of the hour but I want to make sure we get to these questions Shana states do you hat if we go a little bit over is that okay or do you guys have to run that's final thing let's dive in we'll go quickly Shawn a question for you so what current state would Maine be equated to for a growing season by 2050 would you say that's an excellent question and I I haven't had time to to find out precisely where that would be but in general I would and I would expect probably Massachusetts Connecticut with the caveat that there's a pretty steep that there's a very steep temperature gradient across state as we're all aware so the climate of northern Maine is not the climate of southern Maine and there's also Maine's geographic position and northern New England in particular it's impacted by its at a convergence of different air masses and the dynamics of that is not the same as it is to our south and so even in a warming climate for example northern Maine will still have the greatest potential of getting say for example yep air coming down from Canada cool dry air from Canada and and so but it is useful to try to identify analog so long story short Massachusetts kind of the kit it also depends on the emissions trajectory and how much warming there is between now and 2050 great thank you and I should say that was a question from Jamie Jamie Willie here's a question from Susan parks to you Sean again she said she's read that the gulf of maine is one of the fastest warming oceans in the world is that true and if so why is that happening well the let me give you some of the historical context in terms of the Gulf main warming the the gulf of maine has it warmed significantly between about 2004 and between about 2004 and 2012 and during that interval the warming was faster at a rate faster than any other part of the ocean and that's on an annual mean over the past several years so the annual mean temperature has leveled off but there's expectation that the gulf man will continue to warm and so so yes during that particularly steep rise in temperature it was the fastest warming ocean body in the world but there is variability that will likely impact the the future trajectory so there may be some cool years relatively speaking but the overall trend will be upward and so why the gulf Maine is warming it links to both oceanic circulation and also atmospheric circulation it has example 2012 the first really big marine heat wave is what they're now called occurred in 2012 at the peak of this several years of a really extreme warming there was both can folks doing here me but I can hear you anybody hear me well the circulation entering the Gulf of Maine it's a it's a complex story of ocean water coming up coming off the Gulf Stream in Eddie's that mix in the basin but also cold weather water that comes down the Arctic and then flows along the coast in Nova Scotia and interest the Gulf and so that's a cold low salinity water source versus a much warmer higher salinity source but there's a battle between these two different types of water masses and there's also atmospheric circulation that provides the wind stress that that can propel an ocean current one way or the next so it's a complex picture but the warming the Gulf main has largely reflected the warming in the larger scale North Atlantic region and so as the North Atlantic warms the Gulf Maine is also expected to warm as well and now it weather it warms at a particular rate that's that question because again it's it's it depends on the e could be a regime where a little bit more cold water flows into the Gulf that moderates temperatures for a while but I answer your question great yeah thank you and I so I I just lost power for a moment it looks like it didn't screw everything up which is good but I did lose the questions so I don't know Eliza if you have the questions those are all gone so maybe you could take over asking yeah happily and the the worst happened but I guess it wasn't that bad so right on Nick for prepping us or what a power outage and zoom land is like let's see it's a question for state Stacy from David he asks that folks sometimes overlook the importance of energy efficiency in reducing emissions and asks if you could break down the role that energy efficiency has played in reducing emissions to date yeah so I don't have specific data on this topic but where we're going to see that obviously this is a huge strategy and one that everybody can implement immediately obviously in the bigger sectors this is something that the manufacturers and automakers will be working on increased efficiencies but there are a lot of federal regulations related to this like the vehicle cafe standards those are all increased efficiency focused strategies where I see this in the greenhouse gas data in the SIP is in the reduction of fossil fuel use right in the duction of well all fuel use really so the primary database the foundational database for this set the state inventory tool that we use is fuel consumption right it's fuel consumption data in BTU that's the British thermal unit so that's the amount of energy required to raise one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit so it's kind of an effectiveness number and so with increased efficiencies we are going to see those numbers reduced because people will be using less fuel so while we might not be able to pinpoint other than with with fancy models that kind of guess at where different strategies are affecting our fuel use we will see that overall fuel reduction with energy efficiencies strategies unfortunately I don't have the specifics um there are a lot of models out there that look at various strategies and the expected impact on fuel consumption but none of that is incorporated into the greenhouse gas report at this time thanks Stacey so I'm gonna do two two more questions the first one being and anyone jump in this is from Jeff he asks about wood burning compared to fossil fuel and emissions and kind of what's he provided between fossil fuels and burning wood with you plant this is this is what my day-to-day work is looking like right now wood is a primary focus so as you may have noticed in the current greenhouse gas report in the eighth by any report there are no renewable as mentioned so in the back if you get a chance I encourage all of you to grab a copy of the greenhouse gas report it is on the DEP website and in the back you will see a number of tables and it will show you the consumption of energy by different sources and that does include a breakdown of the renewable sources that we use for energy obviously there are no emissions from some renewable sources other renewable sources do have emissions like wood but with this 8th biennial report as well as all of the previous greenhouse gas reports we have sort of ignored the emissions from wood because we are assumed that they are balanced by the sequestration of our growing forests and in Maine that's that's a fairly valid assumption for the most part now with the governor's promise for carbon neutrality we need to start looking at those numbers specifically we can't just make an assumption that renewables are balanced by the sequestration we need to quantify that so what you will see in the next greenhouse gas report which will be released in January 2022 but we're already working on now you will see emissions from wood and you were going to see emissions from all of the renewables that produce emissions things like ethanol it and what are the big two so we don't have all of those data sorted out yet I would say that there are a lot of emissions from wood if it's right up there with some of the fossil fuels it is but you also have a sequestration of the greenhouse gases so you have to make up your own opinions what is better or worse but there are emissions from wood burning it is not 100% neutral and so for the next greenhouse gas report we will report on that and so what you will see our gross emissions with and without renewables for the first report we're going to do it both ways so you can see the difference and then we're working with University of Maine to come up with that sequestration piece so they are coming up with it's not a time series of sequestration but they are trying to figure out where we are in terms of our carbon neutrality goal and so their piece includes the gross emissions that we report on as well as all of the different things all of the different sources and sinks of carbon in our environment to try to figure out where we are and so their piece will include the sequestration from the forests and you can then kind of balance and see where we are in terms of emissions from wood and it will be reported separately so it's not just lumped into gross emissions you will see the emissions specifically from wood over time since 1990 as well as by sector so you'll see emissions from wood in residential and transportation in industrial commercial etc and then you can kind of balance that with the sequestration that the humane team has found hope that's helpful it is Thank You Stacy and I think you know as you've referenced a number of upcoming reports and there's been some [Music] participants but there's a lot of great resources out there and I know we'll be doing a follow-up email that will point folks to many of the resources that both Sean and Stacy have mentioned so that folks can dive into this even more and I'll I'll finally take a question from Jocelyn who asks about solutions that are being proposed to decrease transportation emissions and I'll cut back to say that that will be the topic of an upcoming talk within this series that will be talking diving even more into transportation emissions some of the policy solutions that have been proposed for reducing those emissions you know has Stacy showed very clearly and the graphs that Stacy shared transportations is our biggest source of emissions and is also perhaps our most challenging problem if that's what you want to call it to fix and so that is something that you know to be actually perfectly honest as we were putting together this climate series transportation was number one in something that we wanted content we wanted to deliver to folks out there transportations not an area of expertise for Maine Audubon but we do know that it is essential to an essential component of what's going to be our updated climate action plan so it was really important for us to deliver more information to folks on that topic so so stay tuned with that and I will push it over to Nick for or final thoughts and wrap this up I the only final thoughts is that this was great I'm so glad that nothing collapsed under the storm I just put a link in the chat to where folks can register for the upcoming climate talks in two weeks from today we have a talk about community solar and how folks can get involved and then following that with you about rooftop solar so really great practical information for folks who are looking to cut down on their own carbon footprint and so I just really wanted to thank Sean and Stacy for joining us today this was absolutely fantastic and a perfect way to get started on this series and I also want to thank Laura Craver Rogers for putting so many great links in the chat she was really on top of things so thanks to all I will be stopping this recording and putting it on main autobahns website as soon as I can so stay tuned for that and keep an eye out for the email that Eliza mentioned and thank you so much for joining us today oh thank you