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As first time entrepreneurs, what part of the process are people often completely blind to?
The 100 Rules for Being a First-Time EntrepreneurIf you Google “entrepreneur” you get a lot of mindless cliches like “Think Big!” For me, being an “entrepreneur” doesn’t mean starting the next “Faceook”. Or even starting any business at all.It means finding the challenges you have in your life, and determining creative ways to overcome those challenges. However, in this post I focus mostly on the issues that come up when you first start your company. These rules also apply if you are taking an entrepreneurial stance within a much larger company (which all employees should do).Just as good to be an “entreployee” as an “entrepreneur”. Either one will help you survive this world of increased economic uncertainty.For me, I’ve started several businesses.Maybe 17 have failed out of 20. I fail quickly. I fail frequently. Entrepreneurship is a sentence of failures punctuated by brief success.I’m invested in about 28 private companies. I’ve advised probably another 50 private companies. I’m on the board of several private companies and one public company. The companies ranging from $0 in revenues to a billion in revenues.Along the way I’ve compiled a list of rules that have helped me deal with every aspect of being an entrepreneur in business and some in life.Here’s the real rules:A) It’s not fun. I’m not going to explain why it’s not fun. These are rules. Not theories. I don’t need to prove them.But there’s a strong chance you can hate yourself throughout the process of being an entrepreneur. Keep sharp objects and pills away during your worst moments. And you will have them. If you are an entrepreneur and agree with me, please note this in the comments below.B) Try not to hire people. You’ll have to hire people to expand your business. But it’s a good discipline to really question if you need each and every hire.C) Get a customer. This seems obvious. But it’s not. Get a customer before you start your business, if you can.So many people say to me, “I have an idea. Can you introduce me to VCs?”There is a HUGE gap between “idea” and “professional venture capital”.In the middle of that gap is “customer”.D) If you are offering a service, call it a product.Oracle did it. They claimed they had a database. But if you “bought” their database they would send in a team of consultants to help you “install” the database to fit your needs.In other words, for the first several years of their existence, they claimed to have a product but they really were a consulting company. Don’t forget this story. Products are valued higher than services.And almost EVERY major software product company was a service company in the beginning. Don’t forget that.E) It’s OK to fail. Start over. Hopefully before you run out of money. Hopefully before you take in investor money. Or, don’t worry about it. Come up with new ideas. Start over.F) Be profitable. Try to be profitable immediately. This seems obvious but it isn’t. Try not to raise money. That money is expensive.G) When raising money: if it’s not easy then your idea is probably incapable of raising money. If its easy, then take as much as possible. If its TOO easy, then sell your company (unless you are Twitter, etc).(if its too easy, sell your company)H) The same goes for selling your company. If it’s not easy, then you need to build more. Then sell. To sell your company, start getting in front of your acquirers a year in advance. Send them monthly updates describing your progress. Then, when they need a company like yours, your company is the first one that comes to mind.Don’t be like that guy in the TV show “Silicon Valley”. If someone offers you ten million for a company that has no revenues, then sell it. Not everything is going to be a Facebook. And even the Google guys tried to sell their company for ONE MILLION DOLLARS to Yahoo before they were revenue positive.SELL THE COMPANY.I) Competition is good. It turns you into a killer. It helps you judge progress. It shows that other people value the space you are in. Your competitors are also your potential acquirors.J) Don’t use a PR firm. Except maybe as a secretary. You are the PR for your company. You are your company’s brand. You personally.I’ve never had a good PR company. I’ve had good PR secretaries. But they are cheaper. One time I hired a PR company and they accidentally sent me the contract for Terry Bradshaw. He was paying $10,000 a month. How did they do for him?K) Communicate with everyone. Employees. Customers. Investors. All the time. Every day.Employees want to know what to do. And they want to know you are thinking of their overall career.Customers want to know how to keep their bosses calm.Investors want to be your friend and want to know they can count on you when time’s are tough.L) Do everything for your customers. This is very important.Get them girlfriends or boyfriends. Speak at their charities. Visit their parents for Thanksgiving. Help them find other firms to meet their needs. Even introduce them to your competitors if you think a competitor can help them or if you think you are about to be fired. Always think first, “What’s going to make my customer happy?”Note: EVEN if that means introduce them to a competitor. If you are the SOURCE, then everybody comes back to the source.M) Your customer is not a company. There’s a human there. What will make my human customer happy? Make him laugh. You want your customer to be happy.N) Show up. Go to breakfast/lunch/dinner with customers. Treat.O) History. Know the history of your customers in every way. Company history, personal history, marketing history, investing history, etc.P) Micro-manage software development. Nobody knows your product better than you do. If you aren’t a technical person, learn how to be very specific in your product specification so that your programmers can’t say: “well you didn’t say that!”Q) Hire local. You need to be able to see and talk to your programmers. Don’t outsource to India. I love India. But I won’t hire programmers from there while I’m living in the US.R) Sleep. Don’t buy into the 20 hours a day entrepreneur myth. You need to sleep 8 hours a day to have a focused mind.If you are working 20 hours a day, then that means you have flaws in how you are managing your time. You can argue about this but it’s true.S) Exercise. Same as above. If you are unhealthy, your product will be unhealthy.T) Emotionally Fit. DON’T have dating problems and software development problems at the same time. VCs will smell this all over you.U) Pray. You need to. Be grateful where you are. And pray for success. You deserve it. Pray for the success of your customers. Heck, pray for the success of your competitors. The better they do, it means the market is getting bigger. And if one of them breaks out, they can buy you.V) Buy your employees gifts. Massages. Tickets. Whatever. I always imagined that at the end of each day my young, lesbian employees (for some reason, most employees at my first company were lesbian) would be calling their parents and their mom and dad would ask them: “Hi honey! How was your day today?” And I wanted them to be able to say: “It was the best!” Invite customers to masseuse day. W) Treat your employees like they are your children. They need boundaries. They need to be told “no!” sometimes. And sometimes you need to hit them in the face (ha ha, just kidding). But within boundaries, let them play.X) Don’t be greedy pricing your product. If your product is good and you price it cheap, people will buy. Then you can price upgrades, future products, and future services more expensive. Which goes along with the next rule.Y) Distribution is everything. Branding is everything. Get your name out there, whatever it takes. The best distribution is of course word of mouth, which is why your initial pricing doesn’t matter.Write a blog about your industry and be very honest about all the flaws (even your own) that is currently in your industry.Authenticity is the best branding.Z) Don’t kill yourself. It’s not worth it. Your employees need you.Your children or future children need you. It seems odd to include this in a post about entrepreneurship but we’re also taking about keeping it real.Most books or “rules” for entrepreneurs talk about things like “think big”, “go after your dreams”. But often dreams turn into nightmares. I’ll repeat it again. Don’t kill yourself. Call me if things get too stressful. Or more importantly, make sure you take proper medicationAA) Give employees structure. Let each employee know how his or her path to success can be achieved. All of them will either leave you or replace you eventually. That’s OK. Give them the guidelines how that might happen. Tell them how they can get rich by working for you.BB) Fire employees immediately. If an employee gets “the disease” he needs to be fired. If they ask for more money all the time. If they bad mouth you to other employees. If you even think they are talking behind your back, fire them.The disease has no cure. And it’s very contagious. Show no mercy. Show the employee the door. There are no second chances because the disease is incurable.I don’t say this because I want anyone to be hurt. But if you’ve followed the rules above then you are treating employees well already. NOBODY should spread the disease and badmouth you or your customers.CC) Make friends with your landlord. If you ever have to sell your company, believe it or not, you are going to need his signature (because there’s going to be a new lease owner)DD) Only move offices if you are so packed in that employees are sharing desks and there’s no room for people to walk.EE) Have killer parties. But use your personal money. Not company money. Invite employees, customers, and investors. .FF) If an employee comes to you crying, close the door or take him or her out of the building. Sit with him until it stops. Listen to what he has to say. If someone is crying then there’s been a major communication breakdown somewhere in the company. Listen to what it is and fix it. Don’t get angry at the culprit’s. Just fix the problem.(you don’t want your employees to be sad.)GG) At Christmas, donate money to every customer’s favorite charity. But not for investors or employees.HH) Have lunch with your competitors. Listen and try not to talk. One competitor (Bill Markel from Interactive 8) once told me a story about how the CEO of Toys R Us returned his call. He was telling me this because I never returned Bill’s calls. Ok, Bill, lesson noted.II) Ask advice a lot. Ask your customers advice on how you can be introduced into other parts of their company. Then they will help you. Because of the next rule…JJ) Hire your customers. Or not. But always leave open the possibility. Let it always dangle in the air between you and them. They can get rich with you. Maybe. Possibly. If they play along. So play.KK) On any demo or delivery, do one extra surprise thing that was not expected. Always add bells and whistles that the customer didn’t pay for.This is such an easy way to over deliver I’m surprised people don’t do it 100% of the time. They do it maybe 1% of the time. So this is an easy way to compete and surprise and delight.LL) Understand the demographic changes that are changing the world. Where are marketing dollars flowing and can you be in the middle. What services do aging baby boomers need? Is the world running out of clean water? Are newspapers going to survive? Etc. Etc. Read every day to understand what is going on.LLa) Don’t go to a lot of parties or “meetups” with other entrepreneurs. Work instead while they are partying.MM) But, going along with the above rule, don’t listen to the doom and gloomers that are hogging the TV screen trying to tell you the world is over. They just want you to be scared so they can scoop up all the money.NN) You have no more free time. In your free time you are thinking of new ideas for customers, new ideas for services to offer, new products.OO) You have no more free time, part 2. In your free time, think of ideas for potential customers. Then send them emails: “I have 10 ideas for you. Would really like to show them to you. I think you will be blown away. Here’s five of them right now.”OOa) Depressions, recessions, don’t matter. There’s $15 trillion in the economy. You’re allowed a piece of it:FedEx, Microsoft, HewlettPackard, and many huge companies were started in recessions or depressions. Leave economics to the academics while they leave good business to you.PP) Talk. Tell everyone you ever knew what your company does. Your friends will help you find clients.QQ) Always take someone with you to a meeting. You’re bad at following up. Because you have no free time. So, if you have another employee. Let them follow up. Plus, they will like to spend time with the boss. You’re going to be a mentor.RR) If you are consumer focused: your advertisers are your customers. But always be thinking of new services for your consumers. Each new service has to make their life better. People’s lives are better if: they become healthier, richer, or have more sex. “Health” can be broadly defined.SS) If your customers are advertisers: find sponsorship opportunities for them that drive customers straight into their arms. These are the most lucrative ad deals (see rule above). Ad inventory is a horrible business model. Sponsorships are better. Then you are talking to your customer.TT) No friction. The harder it is for a consumer to sign up, the less consumers you will have. No confirmation emails, sign up forms, etc. The easier the better.TTA) No fiction, part 2. If you are making a website, have as much content as you can on the front page. You don’t want people to have to click to a second or third page if you can avoid it. Stuff that first page with content. You aren’t Google. (And, 10 Unusual Things You Didn’t Know About Google)UU) No friction, part 3. Say “yes” to any opportunity that gets you in a room with a big decision maker. Doesn’t matter if it costs you money.VV) Sell your company two years before you sell it. Get in the offices of the potential buyers of your company and start updating them on your progress every month. Ask their advice on a regular basis in the guise of just an “industry catch-up”WW) If you sell your company for stock, sell the stock as soon as you can. If you are selling your company for stock it means:a. The market is such that lots of companies are being sold for stock.b. AND, companies are using stock to buy other companies because they value their stock less than they value cash.c. WHICH MEANS, that when everyone’s lockup period ends, EVERYONE will be selling stock across the country. So sell yours first.XX) Execution is a dime a dozen. If you have an idea worth pursuing, then just make it. You can build any website for cheap. Hire a programmer and make a demo. Get at least one person to sign up and use your service. If you want to make Facebook pages for plumbers, find one plumber who will give you $10 to make his Facebook page. Just do it.Fail quickly. Good ideas are HARD. It’s execution that is a dime a dozen.YY) Don’t use a PR firm, part II. Set up a blog. Tell your personal stories (see “33 tips to being a better writer” ). Let the customer know you are human, approachable, and have a real vision as to why they need to use you. Become the voice for your industry, the advocate for your products. If you make skin care products, tell your customers every day how they can be even more beautiful than they currently are and have more sex than they are currently getting. Blog your way to PR success. Be honest and bloody.ZZ) Don’t save the world. If your product sounds too good to be true, then you are a liar.ZZa) Your company is always for sale.AAA) Frame the first check. I’m staring at mine right now.BBB) No free time, part 3. Pick a random customer. Find five ideas for them that have nothing to do with your business. Call them and say, “I’ve been thinking about you. Have you tried this?”CCC) No resale deals. Nobody cares about reselling your service. Those are always bad deals.DDD) Your lawyer or accountant is not going to introduce you to any of their other clients. Those meetings are always a waste of time.EEE) Celebrate every success. Your employees need it. They need a massage also. Get a professional masseuse in every Friday afternoon. Nobody leaves a job where there is a masseuse.FFF) Sell your first company. I have to repeat this. Don’t take any chances. You don’t need to be Mark Zuckerberg. Sell your first company as quick as you can. You now have money in the bank and a notch on your belt. Make a billion on your next company.Note Mark Cuban’s story. Before he started Broadcast and rode it to a few billion, he sold his first software company for ten million.GGG) Pay your employees before you pay yourself.HHH) Give equity to get the first customer. If you have no product yet and no money, then give equity to a good partner in exchange for them being a paying customer. Note: don’t blindly give equity. If you develop a product that someone asked for, don’t give them equity. Sell it to them. But if you want to get a big distribution partner whose funds can keep you going forever, then give equity to nail the deal.III) Don’t worry about anyone stealing your ideas. Ideas are worthless anyway. It’s OK to steal something that’s worthless.IIIA) Follow me on twitter.Questions from ReadersQuestion: You say no free time but you also say keep emotionally fit, physically fit, etc. How do I do this if I’m constantly thinking of ideas for old and potential customers?Answer: It’s not easy or everyone would be rich.Question: if I get really stressed about clients paying, how do I get sleep at night?Answer: medicationQuestion: how do I cold-call clients?Answer: email them. Email 40 of them. It’s OK if only 1 answers. Email 40 a day but make sure you have something of value to offer.Question: how can I find cheap programmers or designers?Answer: if you don’t know any and you want to be cheap: use Hire Freelancers & Find Freelance Jobs Online, Elance, or craigslist. But don’t hire them if they are from another country. You need to communicate with them even if it costs more money.Question: should I hire programmers?Answer: first…freelance. Then hire.Question: what if I build my product but I’m not getting customers?Answer: develop a service loosely based on your product and offer that to customers. But I hope you didn’t make a product without talking to customers to begin with?Question: I have the best idea in the world, but for it to work it requires a lot of people to already be using it. Like Twitter.Answer: if you’re not baked into the Silicon Valley ecosystem, then find distribution and offer equity if you have to. Zuckerberg had Harvard. MySpace had the fans of all the local bands they set up with MySpace pages. I (in my own small way) had Stock Market - Business News, Market Data, Stock Analysis - TheStreet when I set up Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas. I also had 10 paying clients when i did my first successful business fulltime.Question: I just lost my biggest customer and now I have to fire people. I’ve never done this before. How do I do it?Answer: one on meetings. Be Kind. State the facts. Say you have to let people go and that everyone is hurting but you want to keep in touch because they are a great employee. It was an honor to work with them and when business comes back you hope you can convince them come back. Then ask them if they have any questions. Your reputation and the reputation of your company are on the line here. You want to be a good guy. But you want them out of your office within 15 minutes. It’s a termination, not a negotiation. This is one reason why it’s good to start with freelancers.Question: I have a great idea. How do I attract VCs?Answer: build the product. Get a customer. Get money from customer. Get more customers. Build more services in the product. Get VC. Chances are by this point, the VCs are calling you.Question: I want to build a business day trading.Answer: bad ideaQuestion: I want to start a business but don’t know what my passion is:Answer: skip to the post: “How to be the luckiest person alive”. Do the Daily Practice. Within six months your life will be completely different.Question: I want to leave my job but I’m scared.Answer: same as above question. The Daily Practice turns you into a healthy Idea Machine. Plus luck will flow in from every direction.Final rule: Things change. Every day. The title of this post, for instance, says “100 Rules”. But I gave about 70 rules (including the Q&A). Things change midway through. Be ready for it every day. In fact, every day figure out what you can change just slightly to shake things up and improve your product and company.Your business is not your life. When you start a business you also get a cognitive bias that makes you think your business is GREAT.Every day make sure you are not smoking crack. The most important thing is your health so you can be persistent. If you smoke crack you can die.I hope you succeed. Because I really need that smart toilet that sends my doctors text messages after doing urinalysis on my pee every day.Good luck.
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What are probabilistic graphical models, and why are they useful?
These are Probabilistic Graphical Models. They are arguably our most complete and promising toolkit for inferring truth from complexity. They're born from a single set of principles that endow our machines to dominate chess, diagnose disease, translate language, decipher sound, recognize images and drive cars. 'Neural Networks' and 'Probabilistic Programming' are famous signatures of the Machine Learning community simply because they are effective tool sets for applying these devices.My aim here is to reveal the machinery behind this magic. I intend to show what they are, why we use them and how we actually use them. To do that, I’ve answered seven questions on this subject:What are Probabilistic Graphical Models and why are they useful?What is 'exact inference' in the context of Probabilistic Graphical Models?What is Variance Inference in the context of Probabilistic Graphical Models?How are Monte Carlo methods used to perform inference in Probabilistic Graphical Models?How are the parameters of a Bayesian Network learned?How are the parameters of a Markov Network learned?How is the graph structure of Probabilistic Graphical Models learned?I realize this is a ton to digest, especially for internet browsing, but allow me to sell you. This information is typically delivered with a worthwhile 1000+ page textbook to graduate computer scientists. We can 80/20 these ideas with just a few answers! It'll take discipline, but you'll gain a surprisingly good understanding of an absolutely foundational theory of Machine Learning.As a compromise, I've structured things such that you need only read a subset of these answers to get a full picture. Here's a map of that structure:For example, if you read [math]1 \rightarrow 2 \rightarrow 6 \rightarrow 7[/math], you'll get a complete taste. Also, I'll include refreshers at the beginning of each answer - this should make things more self contained. (If you read these answers in sequence, I'd skip those refreshers, as they will sound redundant.)If this sounds like a good deal to you, please follow those questions!Now, let's start walking.Notation GuideAs a first stop, we'll review notation, an admittedly boring place. But, it's my unconventional belief that most confusion is due to notation. So if we wish to survive, we'll need a few tips:An upper case non-bold letter indicates a single random variable ('RV'). The same letter lower cased with a super script indicates a specific value that RV may take. For example, [math]X=x^1[/math] is the event the RV [math]X[/math] took on the value [math]x^1[/math]. We call this event an assignment. The set of unique values an RV may take is [math]Val(X)[/math]. So we might have [math]Val(X)=\{x^0,x^1\}[/math] in this case.A bold upper case letter indicates a set of RVs (like [math]\mathbf{X}[/math]) and a bold lower case letter indicates a set of values they may take. For example, we may have [math]\mathbf{X}=\{A,B\}[/math] and [math]\mathbf{x}=\{a^3,b^1\}[/math]. Then the event [math]\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x}[/math] is the event that [math]A=a^3[/math] happens and [math]B=b^1[/math] happens. Naturally, [math]Val(\mathbf{X})[/math] is the set of all possible unique joint assignments to the RVs in [math]\mathbf{X}[/math].If you see [math]\mathbf{x}[/math] (or [math]\mathbf{y}[/math] or [math]\mathbf{z}[/math] etc...) within a probability expression, like [math]P(\mathbf{x}|\cdots)[/math] or [math]P(\cdots|\mathbf{x})[/math], that's always an abbreviation of the event '[math]\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x}[/math]'.Perhaps confusingly, we also abbreviate the event '[math]\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x}[/math]' as '[math]\mathbf{X}[/math]', though this isn't a clean abbreviation. Omission of [math]\mathbf{x}[/math] means one of two things: either we mean this for any given [math]\mathbf{x}[/math] or for all possible [math]\mathbf{x}[/math]'s. As an example for the latter case, 'calculate [math]P(\mathbf{X})[/math]' would mean calculate the set of probabilities [math]P(\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x})[/math] for all [math]\mathbf{x}\in Val(\mathbf{X})[/math].[math]\sum_\mathbf{X}f(\mathbf{X})[/math] is shorthand for [math]\sum_{\mathbf{x}\in Val(\mathbf{X})}f(\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x})[/math]. This is similarly true for [math]\prod_\mathbf{X}(\cdot)[/math] and [math]\textrm{argmin}_\mathbf{X}(\cdot)[/math]. Look out for this one - it can sneak in there and change things considerably.You may see equations like [math]f(A,B,C)=g(\mathbf{X})h(\mathbf{Y})[/math]. They look strange - the RVs on the left aren't on the right! Well, in such cases, you also have something like [math]\mathbf{X} = \{A,B\}[/math] and [math]\mathbf{Y} = \{B,C\}[/math]. So the equation really is [math]f(A,B,C)=g(A,B)h(B,C)[/math].Probability distributions are references with a [math]P[/math], [math]\textrm{Q}[/math], [math]q[/math] or [math]\pi[/math]. Keep in mind that distributions are a special kind of function. Remember that!Everything is in reference to the discrete case. Unfortunately, the continuous case is not a simple generalization from the discrete case. The minor exception is in the visuals. The discrete case is less friendly to graphs, so I might use some continuous distributions. As it relates to the discussion, pretend these are in fact discrete distributions with a fine granularity.Almost all of this notation comes from the text Probabilistic Graphical Models - one of those 1000 page monsters. That book is extremely thorough, and should be considered stop number 8.Still here? You must have discipline! Onto the fun stuff - we ask:What generic problem do PGMs address?Our goal is to understand a complex system. We assume the complex system manifests as [math]n[/math] RVs, which we may write as [math]\mathcal{X} = \{X_1,X_2,\cdots,X_n\}[/math] [1][2]. We take it that 'a good understanding' means we can answer two types of questions accurately and efficiently for these RVs. If we say [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] and [math]\mathbf{E}[/math] are two given subsets of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math], then those questions are:Probability Queries: Compute the probabilities [math]P(\mathbf{Y}|\mathbf{E}=\mathbf{e})[/math]. That is, what is the distribution of the RV's of [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] given we have some observation of the RVs of [math]\mathbf{E}[/math]?MAP Queries: Determine [math]\textrm{argmax}_\mathbf{Y}P(\mathbf{Y}|\mathbf{E}=\mathbf{e})[/math]. That is, determine the most likely assignments of RVs given an assignment of other RVs.Before continuing, we should point a few things out:Since [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] and [math]\mathbf{E}[/math] are any two subsets of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math], there is potentially a remaining set (call it [math]\mathbf{Z}[/math]) that's in [math]\mathcal{X}[/math]. In other words, [math]\mathbf{Z} = \mathcal{X} - \{\mathbf{Y},\mathbf{E}\}[/math]. This set appears left out of our questions, but is very much at play. We have to sum these RVs out, which can considerably complicate our calculations. For example, [math]P(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{e})[/math] is actually [math]\sum_\mathbf{Z}P(\mathbf{y},\mathbf{Z}|\mathbf{e})[/math].We haven't mentioned any model yet. This set up is asking generically for probabilities and values that accurately track reality.To this end, we are assisted by the fact that we have some, at least partial, joint observations of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math]. However, some of our [math]n[/math] RVs may never be observed. These are called 'hidden' variables and they will complicate our lives later on.This set up is extremely general, and as such, this problem is extremely hard.The problem with joint distributions.Our starting point, perhaps surprisingly, will be to consider the joint distribution of our RVs [math]\mathcal{X}[/math], which we aren't given in real application (but we'll get there). We'll call that joint distribution [math]P[/math]. Conceptually, we can think of this as a table that lists out all possible joint assignments of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math] and their associated probabilities. So if [math]\mathcal{X}[/math] is made up of 10 RVs, each of which can take 1 of 100 values, this table has [math]100^{10}[/math] rows, each indicating a particular assignment of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math] and it's probability.The issue is, for a complex system, this table is too big. Even if we had the crystal ball luxury of having [math]P[/math], we can't handle it. So now what?The Conditional Independence statementWe need a compact representation of [math]P[/math] - something that gives us all the information of that table, but doesn’t involve writing it down. To this end, our saving grace is the Conditional Independence (CI) statement:Given subsets of RVs [math]\mathbf{X}[/math], [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] and [math]\mathbf{Z}[/math] from [math]\mathcal{X}[/math], we say [math]\mathbf{X}[/math] is conditionally independent of [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] given [math]\mathbf{Z}[/math] if[math]P(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{z})=P(\mathbf{x}|\mathbf{z})P(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{z})\tag*{}[/math]for all [math]\mathbf{x}\in Val(\mathbf{X})[/math], [math]\mathbf{y}\in Val(\mathbf{Y})[/math] and [math]\mathbf{z}\in Val(\mathbf{Z})[/math]. This is stated as '[math]P[/math] satisfies [math](\mathbf{X}\perp \mathbf{Y}|\mathbf{Z})[/math][3]'Now, if we had sufficient calculation abilities, we could calculate the left side and the right side for a distribution [math]P[/math]. If the equations hold for all values, then, by definition, the CI statement holds. Intuitively, though not obviously, this means that if you are given the assignment of [math]\mathbf{Z}[/math], then knowing the assignment of [math]\mathbf{X}[/math] will never help you guess [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] (and vice versa). In other words, [math]\mathbf{X}[/math] provides no information for predicting [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] beyond what [math]\mathbf{Z}[/math] has. Similarly, you can't predict [math]\mathbf{X}[/math] from [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] any better.Knowing such statements turns out to be massively useful - they give us that compact representation we need. To see this, let's say [math](X_i \perp X_j)[/math] for all [math]i \in \{1,\cdots,10\}[/math] and [math]j \in \{1,\cdots,10\}[/math] where [math]i\neq j[/math]. This is to say, all RVs are independent of all other RVs. It turns out that with these statements, we only need to know the marginal probabilities of each value for each RV (which is a total of [math]10\cdot 100=1000[/math] values) and may reproduce all the probabilities of [math]P[/math]. So if we are considering the case where [math]\mathbf{X}=\mathcal{X}[/math] and would like to know the probability [math]P(\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x})[/math], we simply return [math]\prod_{i=1}^{10}P(X_i=x_i)[/math], where [math]x_i[/math] is the [math]i[/math]-th element of [math]\mathbf{x}[/math].Though this isn't just a save on storage. This is a simplification on [math]P[/math] that will ease virtually any interaction with [math]P[/math], including summing over many assignments and finding the most likely assignment. So at this point, I'd like you to think that CI statements regarding [math]P[/math] are a requirement for wielding it.Now put a pin in this and let's switch gears.The Bayesian NetworkIt's time to introduce the first type of PGM - the Bayesian Network ('BN'). A BN refers to two things, both in relation to some [math]\mathcal{X}[/math]: a BN graph (called [math]\mathcal{G}[/math]) and an associated probability distribution [math]P_B[/math]. [math]\mathcal{G}[/math] is a set of nodes, one for each RV of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math], and a set of directed edges, such that there are no directed cycles. Said differently, it's a DAG. [math]P_B[/math] is a distribution with probabilities for assignments of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math] using a certain rule and Conditional Probability Tables ('CPTs' and 'CPDs'), which augment [math]\mathcal{G}[/math]. That rule, called the 'Chain Rule for BNs', for determining probabilities can be written:[math]P_B(X_1,\cdots,X_n)=\prod_{i=1}^n P_B(X_i|\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G})\tag*{}[/math]where [math]\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G}[/math] indicates the set of parent nodes/RVs of [math]X_i[/math] according to [math]\mathcal{G}[/math]. The CPDs tell us what the [math]P_B(X_i|\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G})[/math] probabilities are. That is, a CPD lists out the probabilities of all assignments of [math]X_i[/math] given any joint assignment of [math]\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G}[/math][4]. These CPDs are the parameters of our model. Their form is to list out actual conditional probabilities from [math]P_B[/math].To help, let's consider a well utilized example from that monstrous text: the 'Student Bayesian Network'. Here, we're concerned with a system of five RVs: a student's intelligence ([math]I[/math]), their class's difficulty ([math]D[/math]), their grade in that class ([math]G[/math]), their letter of recommendation ([math]L[/math]) and their SAT score ([math]S[/math]). So [math]\mathcal{X}=\{I,D,G,L,S\}[/math]. The BN graph along with the CPDs can be represented as:According to our rule, we have that any joint assignment of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math] factors as:So we would calculate a given assignment as:Not too bad, right? All this is to show is that a BN along with CPDs gives us a way to calculate probabilities for assignments of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math].Now we're ready for:The big idea.It's so big, it gets its own quote block:The BN graph, just those nodes and edges, implies a set of CI statements regarding it's accompanying [math]P_B[/math].It's a consequence of the Chain Rule for calculating probabilities. As a not-at-all-obvious result, a BN graph represents all [math]P[/math]'s that satisfy these CI statements and each of those [math]P[/math]'s could be attained with an appropriate choice of CPDs.For a BN, one form of those CI statements are:[math](X_i \perp\textrm{NonDescendants}_{X_i}|\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G})[/math] for [math]X_i \in \mathcal{X}[/math]So in the student example, we'd have this set:The third statement tells us that if you already know the student's intelligence and their class's difficulty, then knowing their SAT score won't help you guess their grade. This is because the SAT score is correlated with their grade only via their intelligence, and you already know that.These are referred to as the local semantics of the BN graph. To complicate matters, there are almost always many other true CI statements associated with a BN graph outside of the local semantics. To determine those by inspecting the graph, we use a scary 'D-separation' algorithm that I will shamelessly not explain.There is a reason this is so important. Since a BN graph is a way of representing CI statements and such statements are a requirement for handling a complex system's joint distribution (if you had it), then this is a good reason to use a BN to represent such systems. If we can accurately represent a system with a BN, we will be able to calculate our probability and MAP queries. Therefore, BNs will solve our problems when we're dealing with a certain class of [math]P[/math]'s. This choice, unsurprisingly, is called our representation.But there's an issue - I said a 'class' of [math]P[/math]'s. It's not hard to invent [math]P[/math]'s that come with CI statements a BN cannot represent.So now what? Well, we have other tools, the biggest of which is...The Markov NetworkA Markov Network ('MN') is likewise composed of a graph ([math]\mathcal{H}[/math]) and a probability distribution ([math]P_M[/math]). Though this time, the graph's edges are undirected and it may have cycles. The consequence is that a MN can represent a different set of CI statements. But, the lack of directionality means we can no longer use CPDs. Instead, that information is delivered with a factor, which is a function (function! remember it) that maps from an assignment of some subset of [math]\mathcal{X}[/math] to some nonnegative number. These factors are used to calculate probabilities with the 'Gibbs Rule'[5].To understand the Gibbs Rule, we must define a complete subgraph. A ‘subgraph’ is exactly what it sounds like - we make a subgraph by picking a set of nodes from [math]\mathcal{H}[/math] and including all edges from [math]\mathcal{H}[/math] that are between nodes from this set. A 'complete' graph is one which has every edge it can - each node has an edge to every other node.Now, let's say [math]\mathcal{H}[/math] breaks up into a set of [math]m[/math] complete subgraphs. By 'break up', I mean that the union of all nodes and edges across these subgraphs gives us all the nodes and edges from [math]\mathcal{H}[/math]. Let's write the RVs associated with the nodes of these subgraphs as [math]\{\mathbf{D}_i\}_{i=1}^m[/math]. Let's also say we have one factor (call it [math]\phi_i(\cdot)[/math]) for each of these. We refer to these factors together with [math]\Phi[/math], so [math]\Phi=\{\phi_i(\cdot)\}_{i=1}^m[/math]. For terminology's sake, we say that the 'scope' of the factor [math]\phi_i(\cdot)[/math] is [math]\mathbf{D}_i[/math] because [math]\phi_i(\cdot)[/math] takes an assignment of [math]\mathbf{D}_i[/math] as input.Finally, the Gibbs Rule says we calculate a probability as:where(It's hidden from this notation, but we're assuming it's clear how to match up the assignment of [math]X_1,\cdots,X_n[/math] with the assignments of the [math]\mathbf{D}_i[/math]'s.)Wait - the MN was introduced because it represents a different set of CI statement. So, which ones? It's considerably simpler in the case of a MN. A MN implies the CI statement [math](\mathbf{X} \perp \mathbf{Y}|\mathbf{Z})[/math] if all paths between [math]\mathbf{X}[/math] and [math]\mathbf{Y}[/math] go through [math]\mathbf{Z}[/math]. Easy!Now let's get specific. Below is an MN for the system [math]\mathcal{X}=\{A,B,C,D\}[/math] and the CI statements it represents:As you may notice, it's not hard to write those CI statements by viewing the graph.While we're here, let's write out the Gibbs Rule. By looking at this, we could identify our complete subgraphs as: [math]\{\{A,B\},\{B,C\},\{C,D\},\{D,A\}\}[/math]. With that, we calculate a probability as:whereTo repeat, each [math]\phi_i(\cdot,\cdot)[/math] is just a function that maps from it's given joint assignment to some nonnegative. So if [math]A[/math] and [math]B[/math] could only take on two values each, [math]\phi_1(\cdot,\cdot)[/math] would relate the four possible assignments to four nonnegative numbers. These functions serve as our parameters just as the CPDs did. Determining these functions brings us from a class of [math]P[/math]'s to a specific [math]P[/math] within it, defined with probabilities.But, ahem, uhh… there's an issue. In the BN case, I said:As a not-at-all-obvious result, a BN graph represents all [math]P[/math]'s that satisfy its CI statements and each of those [math]P[/math]'s could be attained with an appropriate choice of CPDs.The analogous is not true in the case of MNs. There may exist a [math]P[/math] that satisfies the CI statements of a MN graph, but we can't calculate it's probabilities with the Gibbs rule. Damn!Fortunately, these squirrely [math]P[/math]'s falls into a simple, though large, category: those which assign a zero probability to at least one assignment. This leads us to the Hammersley-Clifford theorem:If [math]P[/math] is a positive distribution ([math]P(\mathbf{X}=\mathbf{x})>0[/math] for all [math]\mathbf{x} \in Val(\mathcal{X})[/math]) which satisfies the CI statements of [math]\mathcal{H}[/math], then we may use the Gibbs Rule, along with a choice of complete subgraphs and associated factors, to yield the probabilities of [math]P[/math]. [6]And that about does it for the basics of MNs. They are just another way of representing another class of [math]P[/math]'s.How do BNs and MNs compare?At this point, we're not evolved enough for a full comparison, so let's do a partial one.First, it's clearly easier to determine CI statements in a MN - no fancy D-separation algorithm required. This follows from their simple symmetric undirected edges, which make them a natural candidate for certain problems. Broadly, MNs do better when we have decidedly associative observations - like pixels on a screen or concurrent sounds. BNs are better suited when we suspect the RVs attests to distinct components of some causal structure. Timestamps and an outside expectation of what's producing the data are helpful for that.Also, there's a certain overlap between a MN and a BN that'll unify our discussion in later answers. That is, the probabilities produced by the Chain Rule of any given BN can be exactly reproduced by the Gibbs Rule of a specially defined MN. To see this, look at the Chain Rule - [math]P_B(X_i|\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G})[/math] is just the conditional probability of some (unspecified) [math]X_i[/math] value given some assignment of the parent RVs. Well, to translate this to the Gibbs Rule, let [math]\mathbf{D}_i=\{X_i\}\cup\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G}[/math]. Next, define [math]\phi_i(\mathbf{D}_i)[/math] to produce the same output you'd get from looking up the BN conditional probability in the CPD (which is [math]P_B(X_i|\textrm{Pa}_{X_i}^\mathcal{G})[/math]). Awesome - now the Gibbs Rule is the same expression as the Chain Rule. This is useful because we can speak solely in terms of the Gibbs Rule and whatever we discover, we know will also work for the Chain Rule (and hence BNs). What this doesn't mean is that MNs are a substitute for BNs. If you were to look at this invented MN, it would likely imply way more edges in its graph and therefore, fewer CI statements and therefore, a wider and more unwieldy class of [math]P[/math]'s. In other words, BNs are still useful representations.But there's more to learn.Let's say we determined our graphical model along with its parameters. How do we actually answer those queries? Well, I have three suggestions:2. What is 'exact inference' in the context of Probabilistic Graphical Models?3. What is Variance Inference in the context of Probabilistic Graphical Models?4. How are Monte Carlo methods used to perform inference in Probabilistic Graphical Models?Footnotes[1] This is the one exception where we don't refer to a set of RVs with a bold uppercase letter.[2] This actually isn't the fully general problem specification. In complete generality, the set of RVs should be allowed to grow/shrink over time. That, however, is outside what I expect to accomplish in these posts.[3] There is a subtlety of language here. Often we'll say '[math]P[/math] satisfies these CI statements'. That means those CI statements are true for [math]P[/math], but others may be true as well. So it means 'these CI statements' are a subset of all [math]P[/math]'s true CI statements. This technicality matters, so keep an eye out for it.[4] If [math]X_i[/math] doesn't have any parents, then the CPD is the unconditional probability distribution of [math]X_i[/math].[5] This isn't a real name I'm aware of, but the form of that distribution makes it a Gibbs distribution and I'd like to maintain an analogy to BNs, which had the Chain Rule.[6] The implication goes the other way as well: If the probabilities of [math]P[/math] can be calculated with the Gibbs Rule, then it's a positive distribution which satisfies CI statements implied by a graph which has complete subgraphs of RVs that correspond to the RVs of each factor. This direction, however, doesn't fit into the story I'm telling, so it sits as a lonely footnote.Sources[1] Koller, Daphne; Friedman, Nir. Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series). The MIT Press. Kindle Edition. This is the source of the notation, the graphics in this answers (with permission) and my appreciation for this subject.
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How can I start an e-commerce business?
Let’s understand what are the key elements of an e-commerce store :Products - It can either be one focused product with various designs or a line of different products (Amazon, Flipkart, eBay etc).Logistics - Product shipping, returns, distribution, etcInventory - Number of products in stock, locations etcTech - Website / App or both.Payment Gateways - To accept payments.Customer acquisition - Marketing, branding, Sales.Customer care / service.Now let’s approach each element one by one.(a) Product is the most important aspect of an e-commerce business. What you are selling - How desirable is it? Who are you going to sell it to?I believe most of your products can be sold on already existent e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Flipkart, eBay, Etsy, Snapdeal etc. The best part about these platforms - They will handle most of the above mentioned features for you. You wouldn’t have to spend time on building a website or an app or on customer service.If not, these websites will be additional sales channels for your products. It’s always good to have more and more sales channels to increase SALES.(b) Logistics - Depending on your transactions per day/month, you’d want to partner with logistics companies which will take care of pick-ups/deliveries. They will not only handle that for you, but also inform the customer about the tracking code and provide APIs for your website to ensure a smooth order experience. Ex : Indian Post, FedEx, DTDC etc(c) Inventory : Unless you’re as huge as Amazon, you’d not need to have warehouses to store your products. Based on your sales estimates you’d want to keep your stocks. There are various softwares which will help you manage your inventory.(d) Tech : There are 2 ways to approach tech. Either use platforms like Shopify, woocommerce which are built for people who want to start e-commerce platforms .ORHard code the entire thing from scratch which takes up a lot of time and money. If I were you I’d want to go with Shopify or woocommerce. Both of pros and cons. You can choose one, based on your requirements.(e) Payment Gateways : Again, there are many companies which provide you with payment gateways and APIs. They will charge you somewhere between 2–5% on each transaction. Ex: Stripe, PayPal, Razorpay etc(f) Customer acquisition : The most important part for your e-commerce business. Customers will pay which will ultimately help you run the company. You’d want to know who to target for your products.You can use Facebook ADs, Google ADwords, content marketing, and so many more methods to acquire customers.(g) Customer care : There’s nothing better than word of mouth marketing, this happens only when your customers are super happy with your product and service. Depending on the volume of transactions you can either have an in-house team to handle customer support or outsource this to another company.Amazon is an extremely customer focused company. This explains why it’s growing everyday.PS : I believe using a platform like Shopify and woocommerce would be extremely helpful for you to kickstart you e-commerce business. They offer 1000s of extensions which can help you solve most of your operational problems - Track customer heatmap, track cart, email marketing, billing, analytics and what not.It’s even better to have additional sales channels. So list your products on Amazon and all other relevant e-commerce websites which can drive external SALES for your business.In the end, it’s all about learning everyday and improvising as you go. We learn so much more about our business everyday. Start small, focus on customer satisfaction, and you will be good to go.All the very best for your idea. Hope this helped.
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What are some good experiences with seeding/promoting YouTube videos? What works best (blog/community outsignNow, ads, clickfarms)
In this post I will try to address the various techniques that you can utilize to promote your video and get lots of views for it. It's important to note that in order to get a lot of organic traffic on YouTube, you will need to understand that its search algorithm is based on: number of views a video receives, the rating and the number of comments. 1. CREATE A LIST OF KEYWORDSFirst thing you should do is a create list of keywords that you want to target with your video. You can use Google’s Keyword Traffic Estimator (https://adwords.google.com/selec...) to help you determine the most searched keywords for your niche. Remember, the more searched the keyword, the more competition it will have, but it also means that if you can beat out competition you will get a lot of views for your video.2. FOLLOW THE LEADERAfter you came up with your list of keywords, go to YouTube and search videos that match them. Once the results are displayed click on the “sort by relevance” link and scroll down to “view count”. This will sort out the videos with most views. Click on the video then proceed to click on the “more info” link. You should see the tags that the author of that video used. Copy those tags into your videos “tags” box. You should do this for as many videos as you like. The more tags the better! YouTube will not show duplicate tags so they will weed out the duplicates for you.This technique will help you get your video to show up in the “related video” section of the videos that are already getting lots of views for the keywords you want to target. This could easily mean hundreds if not thousands of targeted views for your video.3. PINGINGThe very first thing you should do after uploading a video is go to www.pingler.com. In the space provided under “website name or title”, type in the title of your video. Fill in the videos URL. Select a category. Enter the CAPTCHA and click on the “ping my site” button.Amongst other things, pinging informs the search engines that there is new content available for indexing.4. COMMENTINGCommenting on other people’s videos can have a major impact on the amount of views your videos and profile receive. But the first thing you should do after uploading a video is be the first to comment on it! (yes, comment on your own video) This will encourage others to follow along.I have not seen many bloggers or marketers do this but it can dramatically increase the amount of comments and ratings your video receives. Just saying something simple such as “Please tell me what you think… leave a comment” or “Give me some feedback… leave a comment and rate the video” can have a positive effect on your efforts. When commenting on other people’s videos, I usually will try to find the one’s with a large number of views or go the opposite direction and comment on the newest videos to make sure I’m the first.Here is how to find the latest videos in your niche: Start out by doing a standard search for your keyword(s). Hover your mouse cursor over “Uploaded: Anytime” link and a dropdown menu will appear. You can either select “today” or “this week”.To find the videos in your niche with the most views search YouTube for your keyword(s). Once the results are displayed click on the “sort by: relevance” link and scroll down to “view count”. Immediately after you comment on someone’s video, send them a “friend” request. Having a large amount of YouTube friends will boost your credibility and also add additional social proof. Doing this will also increase the likelihood of that person publishing the comment. One of myfavorite strategies to use when commenting on videos is doing the video producer a small favor.Leave a comment saying that you submitted their video to Digg, posted it on your Facebook wall, or even sent out a tweet to all your Twitter followers. Often times these comments will be published without hesitation and some people will return the favor.5. SHARE YOUR VIDEO ON SOCIAL NETWORKSOnce you have uploaded your video to one of the popular video sharing sites, you should share it with as many people as possible. You should start with your own social network and share it on Facebook, Twitter, MySpace and other social networking sites. As you share it with your friends ask them to share it with their friends by either positing it as part of the status update on Facebook or asking people to re-tweet on Twitter. You should seek out special interest groups that would be interested in seeing your video. For example, if you created a video about skateboarding, post your video on Facebook among Skateboarding groups and fans of various Skateboarding brands.6. FORUM AND BLOG MARKETINGOne thing that I’ve had success with was promoting it on relevant forums. For example, if it is a video about dog training, it could be promoted on dog forums (there are plenty!). Basically you want to find your audience, and head there. You can put it in your signature, or even make a post about it. Just be careful that you don’t push too hard, as that could turn people off.You should also signNow out to Blogs and first leave your video as a comment, but contact the author as well to ask them to feature your video as future blog post. You should seek out Yahoo Groups and should post your video for their members to see. Post your video on as many places as possible. 7. GETTING YOUR VIDEO RATEDAs you share your video among your social network and on forums, ask people to rate it high. A high rated video will show up higher on search results, and if you target the right keywords will result in higher “targeted” views.8. SOCIAL BOOKMARKINGSubmitting your videos to popular social bookmarking websites such as Digg, StumbleUpon, and Del.icio.us can produce a heavy stream of increased traffic to your videos. Submitting to these sites will also help your video get indexed faster and provide extra link juice to increase your search engine rankings. One of the keys to effective social bookmarking is submitting other people’s content and not just your own. People who use these sites will see your profile and consider your account purely self-promotional or even worse they may see it as spam if all you are doing is submitting your own content.There is a lot of value in passing around quality information and even if the content isn’t your own, you can still be viewed as an authority if you are providing readers with valuable links to quality information.TIP – Always inform the original video/content owner that you have submitted their work to a social bookmarking website. You may get the favor returned.You can semi-automate the social bookmarking process by using a free site: http://www.socialmarker.com/, you can submit your videos URL to 48 social bookmarking websites. Or you can automate the process using social bookmarking software. The two I recommend are: Social Bookmarking Demon (http://bookmarkingdemon.com/), SocialBot (http://www.socialbot.org/).9. WEB 2.0 BLOG DISTRIBUTIONYou can use Posterous (http://posterous.com/) – to distribute your videos across multiple blogs and social networking websites.The first thing you will want to do is set up accounts and a simple blog on these services: Blogger (http://www.blogger.com/), Xanga (http://www.xanga.com/), Tumblr (http://www.tumblr.com/), LiveJournal (http://www.livejournal.com/). (You will also have a blog automatically created for you on posterous). Send an e-mail to post@posterous.com The first e-mail you send posterous should be a“test” e-mail.Place the word “test” in the subject line and just some random text in the email body. Posterous will automatically create a blog for you. You can change your blogs URL and create a username and account. In the top right hand corner of the screen, click on the “manage” link. Then, on the manage screen select “Autopost” of the left hand side. Click the “add service” button to add all of your various blogs.Now you can e-mail posterous (post@posterous.com) and your videos will automatically be post on these various sites.Enter the title of your video in the subject line. You can copy and paste the description either before or after the video. Place the link to your video. Select anchor text. The anchor text you use should be a keyword you are trying to rank for.10. ARTICLE MARKETINGWriting articles and submitting them to popular article directories can be a greatsource of additional views to your videos. Writing an article in under 10 minutes: http://mjthompson.net/257/how-to.... Doing this also provides backlinks back to your video meaning higher search results. A list of 1010 article directories: http://www.directorycritic.com/a...VIDEO SEEDING COMPANIESIf you would like to skip the headache of marketing your video, you can use of many seeding agencies to help you desired amount of views from the demographic that you want. There are a number of seeding agencies in the U.S., among the most popular ones are Virool (www.virool.com), Feed Company, ShareThrough, Jun Group and AlphaBird. Two U.K. based seeding agencies have recently introduced their services in the U.S.: ViralFactory and Unruly Media. These companies basically take your video, charge you a certain price and deliver the desired amount of views that you would want.Most of these companies will not work with anyone who has a budget of less than $100,000 and will charge anywhere between $.20-$.45 per view. They are not a great solution if you would like to just test effectiveness of a viral video as part of your overall marketing strategy. However this is a reason why my team and I created Virool (www.virool.com). Virool is basically an AdSense for video content, we distribute to blogs, games on social networks as well as iPhones. We signNow over 2 million people daily with our videos and our budgets start as low as $1000. Please check us out, e-mail me if you would like to set up a specific campaign: alex@virool.com
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What are some lesser known Gmail tips?
Perhaps not "lesser known", but I've been using keyboard shortcuts for years under "Settings": This probably comes from my vim background, but inside gmail, I almost never use the mouse. Instead:While viewing a list of threads (i.e. Inbox, All Mail, Drafts, search results, etc.):c to compose a new mailj and k to move the cursor down and upx to select/deselect the current thread that's pointed to by the cursore to archive all threads that have been selected [Enter] to go into the thread pointed to by the cursor"g i" to go to my Inbox"g a" to go to All Mail"g d" to go to DraftsWhile inside a thread:n and p to browse down and up messages inside a thread (move the cursor up and down)a to reply all (or r to reply individually, but that's rare) to the message currently pointed to by the cursorf to forward the message that's pointed to by the cursoru to go back to the previous thread list view, which could be your Inbox, All Mail, Drafts, etc. This is the same as the back button: s to toggle through the stars on the message currently pointed to by the cursorIn case you're wondering, the "cursor" is the very thin vertical blue line visible to the left of the third thread in this picture:Other useful shortcuts:/ to make the search bar active"* u" to select all unread emails"* n" to deselect all emailsShift+i to mark all selected emails as readShift+u to mark all selected emails as unreadWhile inside a thread, Shift+u will bring you back to the previous thread list view and marking the current thread as unread. I do this a lot to keep important threads at the top of my inbox.And that's basically all I ever do in gmail. It can be painful to learn at first, but just start with the very basics: j, k, and [Enter] to browse through your inbox. Within a month or two, you'll be zipping through your inbox like Usain Bolt through the 200m.Full list: http://support.google.com/mail/b...Edit: David Craige mentioned a very useful Google Labs add-on under "Settings --> Labs": a [Send & Archive] buttonAnd another useful add-on:
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Can NDAs (non-disclosure agreements) be signed through an online form? Are there any legal implications with an online form?
In a word: Yep!Thanks to the E-SIGN Act, documents signed electronically have the same legal protections as those signed with a physical pen! As long as your eSignature solution is committed to strong legality and your NDA is drafted by a professional, you absolutely can trust NDAs that are created, signed, and stored online.There are a few options out there. The rest of these examples are using signNow’s service. You can even create one now with a free signNow account.Here’s how to set up the NDA:Step 1: Acquire an NDA TemplateYou can find NDA templates online, but I would recommend seeking out a legal professional to create one that’s right for your needs.Step 2. Upload the Template, Add SignersAfter signing in to your signNow account, you’ll see the "Who needs to sign?" menu. For a confidentiality agreement, you’ll probably want to choose between “Me & others” or “Just others.” After selecting one, you’ll be able to drag and drop, choose “Add File,” or use any of our integrations to upload your non-disclosure agreement.Now you can add signers, loop in other parties via our CC feature, and assign a signer order if needed. Select “Prepare doc for signing” to move on to the really cool part!Step 3. Format the NDA and Fill in Your InformationWith the NDA you imported pulled up in front of you, click any of the fields across the top of the page and drag it to where you want to place it in the document. Most of the fields have advanced features and some even let you add a validation type (email address, numbers only, etc.) to help guide signers and reduce errors. Take some time to click around to get your NDA dialed in.Once you get your formatting just right, hit Continue at the top of the page. Back on the “Get your document signed” page, you’ll add a title, an optional message, and send your online NDA out for signatures!Step 4. Sign Your NDA Online (Legally and Securely!)If you’re one of the signers, a prompt to sign the non-disclosure agreement will hit your (and other signers’) email inbox as soon as you send it out for signatures. Just click the “Review & Sign” button in the email to continue.We provide a variety of ways to create your electronic signature:Draw your signature on a touch screen using your finger or a stylusUpload a photo of your signatureType in your signature and customize from a selection of fontTake a picture of your signature using your smartphone’s camerasignNow will automatically prompt each signer to complete all their required fields. Once you’ve filled out your portion of the NDA, all you have to do is agree to one last legality measure and your job is done!Step 5. Access Your Online NDA Any TimeTo check the status, edit, or even download a hard copy of your confidentiality agreement; just visit the Documents section of your signNow dashboard any time.
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How do I register a startup in India? How much money and time does it take? If am currently only 17, what issues will I face dur
Algorithm for starting a Private Limited Company: Engineer's View Personally I believe, If someone is starting a company with long term perspective or to bring some change through their unique Product/Services, one must go for Private limited firm. Prime reason for this is easy to raise funds from Angels/VC in case you go for investment. Step 1. Registration of Company 1. Name Selection: Check whether your desired company name is available or not at MCA website [ http://www.mca.gov.in/ ]. Name must be unique & must resemble with business you intend to do (highlighted one). EX: Arihant Labs Retail Services Pvt. Ltd 2. Registration of Name at ROC: Name approval usually takes maximum of 14 days. This is done online through MCA website. Moreover, you need to apply with at least 4 names for approval with a writeup about significance of names with main business of the company. 3. 1. Documents Required: 2. 1. Options for names for the proposed Company (on the basis of preference) 2. Amount of Share Capital; proposed shareholding ratio 3. A paragraph on the proposed major line of business of the company (main objects) 4. City of Registered Office. 5. Copy of ownership deed/sale deed(if property is owned) 6. Copy of rent agreement with NOC (if property is rented) 7. Copy of latest electricity bill/telephone bill/mobile bill for both directors 8. Copy of latest electric bill/telephone bill for the registered office proof. 4. Obtaining DIN & DSC: 5. 1. Documents Required 2. 1. PAN Card copies for directors and shareholders. 2. Voter ID/Passport/Driving License for directors and shareholders. 3. Occupation of the Directors for directors and shareholders. 4. E-Mail IDs of all directors and shareholders. 5. Phone Numbers for all directors and shareholders. 6. Photos for directors and shareholders 6. Company Incorporation: After above mentioned formalities have been completed, we need to file following forms/docs in Rs 100 stamp paper: 7. 1. Affidavits for non- acceptance 2. INC 9, INC 10 3. DIR 2 4. NOC : This is required to be filed by the owner of the property on which your company will be situated. 5. Subscriber Sheets of MOA & AOA 6. Documents required for filling MOA & AOA 7. 1. Must be filled on OWN handwriting 2. Passport size photos 3. Sheets needs to be witnessed by CA/CS/Advocate Step 2. Obtaining PAN/TAN: After company gets incorporated, you may apply for PAN/TAN. Step 3. Trade Licence in case you are selling PRODUCTS: This is required in some places for carrying out sales. You can obtain this from local Municipality. Step 4. VAT/CST registration for selling Products: For selling intra-state, you need VAT registration & for selling inter-state, you need to register for CST. 1. Documents Required: 2. 1. Trade Licence 2. Company Incorporation Certificate 3. PAN card of company as well as of all the directors 4. Proof of residence of Directors 5. Proof of occupancy of place of business (Rent agreement/ ownership deed, Rent Bills etc) 6. MOA & AOA of company 7. Current Account in the name of company in any national bank Step 5. Service tax registration for Service Industry: In India, you need to pay service tax of 14.5% on every services you have charged customer for. 1. Documents Required: 2. 1. Company Incorporation Certificate 2. PAN card of company as well as of all the directors 3. Proof of residence of Directors 4. Proof of occupancy of place of business (Rent agreement/ ownership deed, Rent Bills etc) 5. MOA & AOA of company 6. Current Account in the name of company in any national bank That's All folks! Your STARTUP is up to Conquer the World. UPVOTE & SHARE your views/issues We at labkafe [ http://labkafe.com/ ], prefer taxmantra [ http://taxmantra.com/ ] for our legal requirements.
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What is Telugu Satakam?
A2A by Nagesh Tallapragada. Thanks for making me brush up my knowledge.“Sata” means hundred in Sanskrit. ‘Satakamu’ means compilation of hundred poems by a single poet.Though literally a Satakam should contain hundred poems, they often exceed hundred by a small number. Say 8 or 16.The characteristics of a Satakam are as follows:Each Satakam conveys a different ideology, depending on the poet’s school of thought.Each Satakam also follows the same ‘Chandassu’ for all the poems in that Satakam. Chandassu is a set of grammatical rules which should be followed while constructing a poem. For example: 1. How many syllables each line should contain 2. Which word should rhyme with which word etc.(for details you can google)Each Satakam has a ‘Makutam’ (crown). Makutam means a phrase or a word repeated at the end of each poem in the Satakam. We can say it is the signature of the poet for that Satakam.Now I will give example of four Satakams, though there are many Satakams in Telugu.A. Vemana Satakam: This is written by ‘Vemana’(Gona Vema Reddy). He became a ‘Yogi’(a person who denounces all worldly things) when he attained his adulthood.Makutam for this Satakam is “Viswadabhirama vinura Vema”. Meaning of this phrase is “Oh Vema, the lover of this universe listen!”. Here Vemana says God is in every person, including him.The chandassu for this satakam is ‘Ataveladi’In this satakam Vemana tries to teach worldly wise things mixed with deep philosophy.Some of his his poems are here.Meaning of the above two poems poems:Salt and camphor look alike. But you will know the difference only after you taste them. Similarly you can not judge a person from his outward appearance. You will get to know about them only after you study them deeply.It is enough if you have even a single ladle of cow’s milk. But it is useless if you have big pot full of donkey’s milk.B. Sumati Satakam: It is written by Baddena Bhupaludu.Makutam for this Satakam is ‘Sumatee’ (which means oh, good hearted person!)The chandassu for this satakam is ‘Kanda padyam’It teaches morals . What to do and what not to do etc. You can say it is a sort of moral science for ancient times.Here are two sample poems:Meaning of the above two poems:Don’t stay in a town where, below mentioned persons are not there. They are: A loan giver (a banker in modern terms), a doctor, a perpetual flowing river, a brahmin (may be another term for a teacher). Stay in a town where all these people exist.It is not a great thing if you help a person who already helped you, it is great if you help a person even if he harmed you.C. Krishna Satakam: This is written by Nrusimha Kavi. All the poems are written in praise of Krishna (Hindu God).Makutam for this Satakam s ‘Krishnaa!” (Krishna, Oh God!)The chandasuu for this satakam is ‘kanda padyam’It tries to inculcate ‘bhakti bhavam’ (devotion towads God)Here are two sample poems:Meaninig of those two poems:A cruel person ‘Ajameeludu’ called his son “Krishna!”. Even then you have granted him ‘moksha’ (eternal bliss). There is no one as kind as you!Oh Krishna, you are my mother, father, friend, teacher and guide. You are all in one for me.D. Kalahastiswara Satakam: This is written by Dhurjati. He was one of the eight poets called ‘Ashta diggajamulu’ in the kingdom of the King ‘Sri Krishna Devaraya’Mukutam for this Satakam is ‘Sri Kalahastiswara!’(Oh, God of Kalahasti!)Chandassu for this Satakam is ‘Sardulam’These poems teach deep philosophy of life.Here are two sample poems:Meaning of those two poems:Everything in this world is a mirage. Even knowing the fact the human beings attach themselves to spouse, children, wealth, and body. Immersed in this worldly pleasures they don’t give a minute’s time to meditate on you.Oh God, why did you attach the relationships like spouse, children, and parents to my neck? I am not able to meditate on you because of these relationships.E. Dasarathi Satakam: It was written by Kancharla Gopanna, known as Ramadasu during 17th century. It consists of 104 poemsMakutam : Daasarthee Karuna Payonedhee (O son of Dasaratha, the ocean of mercy). . Dasarathi means son of Dasaratha, who is the mythological Hindu king Rama. (O son of Dasaratha, the ocean of mercy)The chandassu for this satakam is Utpala mala and champaka mala. Athis form of verse have more number of sillabels.In this Satakam Ramadasu worships Rama with all devoution. In each of the poem we can see his pure devoution to lord Rama.O Rama, who is born in the pious ‘Ikshavahu’ caste, who wears basil leaf garland in his neck, who is the epitome of virtues like forgiveness, romance etc, who killed the demons like Kabandha and who protects the entire world; salute to you! Please forgive our sins and protect us.O Rama, the moon born in the ocean of nectar of “Raghu Vansa(family), who helps in getting detached from chains of worldly things, I am submitting to your lotus feet the poems written in ‘Utpalamala’ and ‘Champakamala’ (chandassu). Let me worship you with those poems.Narasimha Satakam: It is written by Seshappa Kavi. All the poems are written in the praise of ‘Narasimha’Makutam for this Satakam is “Bhushana Vikasa Dharmapura nivasa! Dushta samhara! Narasimha!Durita dura!(two lines of a verse). Meaning of these lines is: “O Narasimha, who resides in Dharmapura, whose body glows with the ornaments, who chase away sins and who destroys sinners”The chandassu for this Satakakam is Sisa Padyam. Sisa padyam consists of two parts. One is basic sisam and another is a small verse either ’Ataveladi’ or ‘Theta geetam’ which follows the basic Sisam. It is one of the beautiful forms of verses.In this Satakam one can see the submission of the poets heart to lord Narasimha. All the poems are written with great anguish/distress/heartache, because he is not able to signNow the lord.O Narasimha, this body will not stay on this earth for thousand(many)years. Wealth is not eternal. When somebody dies his/her family will not come along with them. Servants would not be able to protect one from his death. Any relatives will not protect one from death, power will not be useful(while dying), and even if one is a very wealthy person he/she will not be able to take even a small piece of clothe with them. So instead of thinking like mad dog, why don’t people worship you(know you)?O Narasimha, Nobody brings wealth from his mother’s womb. When somebody dies wealth does not come along with them. Even if somebody is a millionaire, he/she can eat only basic edible things like rice and salt (some taste makers added to grains) but cannot eat gold. If somebody amasses huge amount of wealth, it will go to others but will not come along with one when he/she dies. Like the honey made by honey bees is taken by some walkers by, the money amassed in secret place will be taken by some robbers or kings. So don’t waste your time amassing too much wealth, instead try to find the Lord.For index of more Satakams in Telugu, read ఆంధ్రభారతి - శతకములు - విషయసూచిక - శతక శతకములు శతకాలు.Links for the above poems:Sumati Satakam: à°¸à±à°®à°¤à± à°¶à°¤à°à°.Krishna Satakam: https://www.scribd.com/doc/19681....Vemana Satakam: à°µà±à°®à°¨ పదà±à°¯à°¾à°²à±.Kalahatiswara Satakam: à°à°¾à°¸à±à°à°° à°¶à°¤à°à°.Dasarathi Satakam and Narasimha Satakam: From my digital books.
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