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[Music] [Applause] [Music] well hello everybody it's wednesday and you know what that day is today it's hawaii the state of clean energy day and uh this is sponsored by the hawaii energy policy forum and uh funded by the hawaii natural energy institute which is my alma mater so uh we're going to be doing the third in a series of hydrogen the decarbonizer with my good friend toby kinkade fighting fires in portland oregon or at least fighting the smoke he's going to tell us a little bit about that and um he's got another one of a series of his slides uh toby is an inventor and an author very good author i might say and that he can catch his work uh on amazon if you uh google uh toby kincaid you'll see a bunch of his little his books on there i've bought them all and they're really good they're really worth reading so uh welcome toby nice to have you again for part three of hydrogen the decarbonizer so let's uh let it roll hi well aloha commander thank you very good to be with you this is kind of a sad day in oregon i must uh confess in the last few weeks since we've spoken uh we've had a million acres uh incinerated uh it it's it's been an extraordinary disaster uh we've lost uh almost a dozen people a dozen are still missing uh toddlers grandmothers heartbreaking but you know a million acres that's that's 1500 square miles in a matter of weeks and and we lost all of the the critters you know the chipmunks and squirrels and rabbits and beavers and elk and deer and bear uh uh have been massacred and so i appreciate so much your subject today the decarbonizer and why it is so important that we get a handle on this climate disruption it's life or death right so let's have the first slide up and we'll talk about why hydrogen is the decarbonizer so go ahead absolutely well i love this slide you put together because it really shows the simplicity of it i mean in this slide what we're seeing is you take water you add energy to it and an electrolyzer you make oxygen and hydrogen you can let the oxygen go take the hydrogen it gets through it goes through a desiccant so it's dried and then filtered and then we pump that into tanks and then it's inert it just sits there until you need it now in the case of showing that car in this case the fuel cell is in the car and so when you fill the hydrogen fuel cell car with hydrogen you have an electric vehicle that has a 400 plus mile range and fills up in five minutes but what's really important about this slide is do you see any carbon do you see any fracking or wells or super contain tankers and all of that infrastructure not one bit it's just unnecessary and so what we'll go through in this show is kind of revisit the history of this but these are forms and ideas and how we generate energy that go back over 100 years 300 years to the first industrial revolution but this idea of holes in the ground surrounded by men with guns was really popularized by as we talked about john d rockefeller in that incredible pivot when he went from 30 years of the oil industry making kerosene for lighting fuel and then suddenly the electricity dawned in 1892 with the real nikola tesla and westinghouse and they lit up the chicago world fair and the whole world was changed overnight you flip a switch the light goes on well rockefeller of course was they were devastated by this because who's gonna buy kerosene if you can flip a switch so heat made this pivot and and decided hey instead of the gasoline that we throw away let's change our refining let's make gasoline the main player and let's sell it to the military let's sell it to the government because now we have a monopoly on this market that is a hundred times or a thousand times larger than the lighting industry so rockefeller has set us on this course and we are now reaping the unfortunate benefits of this very limited idea and what's great about that slide is here you have the ability for hawaii who is really on the leading edge you're on the bleeding edge of this revolution but you are demonstrating and have said this is what we must do and here in your work behind you and your picture we see this marvelous facility it's it's almost entirely solid state there's really almost no moving parts you have a solar array making electricity you're taking that electricity directly from photons by the way so you didn't need to make biomass and bury it and pyrolyze it for millions of years no you're direct photons into electrons take those electrons add it to water through an electrolyzer and you make clean fuel and not any fuel you make the most potent fuel that we know of in science it's the safest fuel because it's lighter than air if you have a breach it just goes straight up you're not going to hurt anybody you have something made from water that is available to all people everywhere in the world my goodness this is getting pretty good and then on the top when you use the hydrogen you only get hydrogen oxide as a waste product that has a chemical formula of h2o that's not bad as a waste product so you know there is joy in your heart and joy in our hearts because we see a real solution and i can't walk outside because the smoke is so bad you know for an oregonian that that is uh cutting our heart out because we pride ourselves on our air we have all of these forests pine trees and furs and this vast forest under the mount hood uh range and uh now those are are being absolutely destroyed because of this former paradigm that we've been living under for centuries that people want to sell you a fuel and that fuel is toxic right well now we need to think in a new way and that drawing you have that's this this picture is is is beautiful because it says it all you've shown everything you need the electrolyzer the fuel cell the water the solar that's it that's all you need and uh i'm very proud uh to know you and i'm proud of your work because this is what the world needs we need real solutions and you've got one well that's why we like to characterize the magic part of it like instead of just talking engineering there's a certain magic involved with that and when i go and give presentations to school kids the kids get it right away like wow this is a wow moment a w-o-w moment which is the moment i had 30 years ago when i saw my first fuel cell at ballard power systems way back in the day i remember had this fuel cell sitting on a workbench and they flipped a switch and they had 10 aircraft landing lights up in the ceiling and all of a sudden went bazoom i was totally illuminated almost fried and it was like truly a wow moment and i said from that day on i said that's the future and uh it is the future except it's now is no longer you know way out in the future of 30 years it's it's arrived and now we just need a whole bunch of rockefellers people um with the uh the means to get it done we need champions and we have champions in the legislature we have people that do invest in it as well hawaiian legislature like 10 years ago was uh very proactive because speaker say put together the hydrogen fund which was 10 million dollars equivalent to 330 million dollars if it was on a per capita basis if you compared it to the population of california and he said right in it like we're going to do it on the big island first and prove how it works before we we'll get we'll get all the kinks out of it and then we'll spread it around to the other islands the neighbor islands and that strategy that he started is valid today and that's what we're doing we're about ready to launch our buses here on the big island we'll learn all about them that way people won't have to take a risk of failure nobody wants to fail but it'd be like a kind of a low-cost test overall a low-cost test which the hydrogen fund invested a lot of money in this project which is exactly what it was meant to do so we'll find all the wrinkles and prove to the people that have to supply a service you know they're not experimenting they have a service to provide that the bus doesn't show up you know people don't get to work so this thing has to work and we have to prove that it works so that they can provide the you know the transportation that people need to get to get to their work without having to drive their own car pollute the atmosphere but the cost of driving their own car is enormous for some people and some certain economic levels so the bus is absolutely essential to them and it's the perfect um the perfect experiment or or project to be doing because we're using taxpayers money so every taxpayer gets a chance to sit in a bus and see that magic of you know the decarbonizer so bravo exactly and and that's extraordinary and that is the magic the magic is that it's real that's the ultimate magic is that it's not a pipe dream this is real and even more you're making the fuel yourself and you're making it from sunlight you're bathed in this rich energy resource and you're just using it to take water convert it to fuel and when you use the fuel you get the water back marvelous this is the direction of the world that we must embrace and uh i thank you and behalf of everyone for the effort that you've gone through in these years to make this demonstrable and say look here it is and we're not waving our arms anymore this is the gear and if you have the right gear you have freedom non-toxic you know just a shout out um that there's a lot of people that have invested in this and they've been very patient uh it's been patient capital and they've uh you know they've allowed me to take what it takes to get it done safely and uh so that we don't have any you know problems with it when we roll it out touch wood it's going to work i'm pretty i'm very confident it's going to work because we're you know we're going through the process so absolutely everything well bravo i mean this is really this is like uh uh caesar crossing the rubicon when he brought his armies into rome and once you know we get that crossing the rubicon kind of moment but he's quoted as saying when he crossed that river the dye is now cast right so you have cast the dye you said look here it is this is the form and it is so important the entire west coast is burning up right now and this is because of climate disruption you know in the old days we called it uh the greenhouse effect and and global warming and that language was a little imprecise because it's really kind of a sawtooth pattern and so detractors would look at that little momentary cooling oh no it's cooling see so it's it's just a myth no no no look at all the data not a few years so it's this trend that we have to recognize as the truth and and it's we as you said it's now we don't have any more time well i think a lot of people think well what can i do about it that's just a little wine drinking me i mean such a huge problem we've got china with all their coal plants just spewing out all this stuff i mean you know is what we're doing just a drop in the pacific ocean like who cares but uh essentially what one thing that we've seen here uh is uh when the environment is not being stressed you know what it snaps back so we've seen that during this coven the last six or seven months a lot of our tourist attractions are now recovering from the over tourism we had and so we have like pristine bays that are coming back to life we have coral growing we have fish coming in where people haven't seen the fish before so i think it's a message of hope and especially the younger generation out there this is not mission impossible we have the solution and it's in hydrogen to to overcome this climate change and we just have to get after it you know people say oh it's too expensive well how expensive is it to burn down what did you say a million acres million 1500 square miles at thousands of homes and businesses what did that cost yeah what are the health impacts of all the smoke that millions of people in the west coast are breathing and i mean it's terrible it's not like a little smoky i mean you can't breathe your eyes are burning your throat contracts your body just rejects it he says no this isn't right so the stakes of what you're talking i'm so happy that you mentioned the young people this is their future right a future of fossil fuels is no future we see that ask anyone in oregon or in the washington or california at this moment they tell you houston we have a problem and so it is the young people they've got to vote they've got to support this what they can do is be involved be part of the communication and i think there's a it's really worth their time it's their future after all and we're working for that um but they're gonna have to take it on too and demand clean air clean water clean biology clean soils and we can do that with what you're doing in in hawaii well you know i've heard it referred to as this is spaceship earth that we're on and for that younger generation who may be watching this this is a this is a wonderful thing to devote your life to get after it just like you and i have done for the latter parts of our careers and it's very fulfilling and it's worthwhile so that you can say you know when you get older i actually got something done that was worthwhile to the world not just making money but i made the world i left the world a better place than when i came in so you got to step up the plate and you got to get it done and that's why it's the magic of hydrogen there's hope you can we can make it happen we just have to stop throwing up all these false arguments of why we can't do it i get so many people talking to me about energy efficiency and isn't hydrogen inefficient well you know i look at the cost of the hydrogen at the as you're it out and you start using pv and wind and even geothermal to make your hydrogen we can beat gasoline and diesel on a price basis and we're doing good and all we're doing is making water again so what's the value added on that some tournaments with these stupid arguments that people make it's ridiculous and very frustrating to hear that but we'll just have to overcome it you know with we'll get the magic of the buses and people go wow this is really nice doesn't make any noise no fumes i got air conditioning when the bus stops at the hotel it doesn't have to worry about anti-idling you mean the electric air conditioning system can still work without giving off any um emissions and it's the ideal solution so people out there you gotta get after it and stop with the fake excuses absolutely anyway no no no no it's not like that itself but you've got some great sorry i mean i'm going to talk about you've got some great slides now that you know helped to embellish this concept but go ahead and finish your thought well it don't know i just want to underscore what you said because it's that important this is if we could leave this earth having changed the world from a fossil fuel commodity based toxic fuel paradigm into a clean fuel based on water of which the earth is mostly covered of which a human body is mostly made it's it's coming home again and so and the reason why it's so important now and let's jump in the slides uh uh this this first one we we we showed last week but it's the super volcano of of our modern civilization now that the geologists uh uh uh tell us that there are about 1500 active volcanoes on the earth right now about of those 50 are in eruption so i went and looked up what is the pollution produced by these volcanoes and the best number i could get was between three and four hundred million tons i thought oh that's quite a bit well how do humans compare so you go to wikipedia you can look up what is the total carbon emissions i think they have a number from 2017 there's a variety of sources uh the number there is 37 billion tons per year wow now so we are a super volcano that's a hundred times what the earth is putting out in its natural cycle a hundred times so if anyone says oh us mere humans what can we do to affect the environment are you kidding me we've been you know acid rain was a phrase coined in england in 1804. so in the last of this later part of the 1700s there was 12 000 coal steam engines in the city limits of london let alone all of the houses mansions burning coal to you know a lump of coal to eat you eat your governor you know they burned a lo of coal and all of that emissions went up drifted over the farms nearby and precipitated out as acid rain because carbon dioxide nox which is nitrogen oxide compounds sulfur dioxide compounds called sox particulates all of these things what comes out of a super volcano is exactly what comes out of a steemit burning coal it's the same kind of stuff and uh it's devastating so we're now three centuries into this chemical abuse and i say that because it has been toxic and in fact uh uh well let's go into the next slide and we'll just continue while i wait for that to flip up i lived in england for three years and the nickname for london is still smoke they call it used to call it smoke because it had so much pollution well that's our nickname now because it saturated the whole world now here on this side you know what are the problems like we've been talking about we're putting millions of tons of carbon dioxide thousands of tons of nox and socks particulates mercury and this acid rain whenever you have carbon dioxide and it encounters water a portion will form a weak carbonic acid so because we're putting millions of tons per day of this stuff in the atmosphere it's the equivalent of walking around the oceans and running around and dumping acid in them how long can we do that well we're past the tipping point that's why i think in my calculations we only have about 10 years to finish the job otherwise the inertia of these toxins may be insurmountable so we're seeing species loss we're seeing our environment actually degraded and if you ask a biologist to study an organism and what they do every day the biologists would say well actually i have to spend half the time describing the environment it's in because actually we know now that an organism-environment is how we can describe an organism so we are intimately involved with our environment our modern senses oh that's an externality that's outside of a no it is what you are you are what it is so the environment is is critical here and so let's jump the next slide and uh i can see now here i tried to kind of show when you look at the earth from space it's a big globe but this where we live in the hydrosphere the oceans and the atmosphere is such a thin little film right no it's a bio bubble and we're not even living in the bubble we're living in the film of the bubble yeah so on earth uh most life 99 of life is within a mile up and a mile down of sea level right so uh that's a very thin layer if you took a a basketball and painted some vegetable oil on it and a thin film that's about the right dimension and we're gonna put 37 billion tons of garbage into that in one year let alone 300 years the chemists call this a saturation super saturation when you take a complex organism and life cycle system and environment and you put in select chemicals in an overwhelming amount i mean the poor earth you know the earth breathes every day oxygen comes out during photosynthesis and carbon dioxide goes into the oceans every day this is happening millions of tons of gases are exchanging but the oceans have been filled up they can't take any more acid and now we're actually measuring animals who can't form shells we are playing with danger here folks this is for anyone to come and try and sell you more gasoline or diesel you just have to shake your head the reality is we're either going to save this world or we're going to trash it it's being trashed now if we want this world we better pay particular attention and the and let's go the next slide and the biggest issue is uh okay this one really this is kind of a funny slide let me let me this is a little busy but let me throw it at you on the left we have the the drilling the fracking the pipelines the railroads the the fuel depots the super tankers all of this gear and for what to sell you something they're going to sell you a fuel and so when we move across the chart you what take this fuel and what do you do you burn it in a heat engine and that means you've got air pollution water pollution soil pollution endorkin mercury you have all of this garbage and then here's the thing that really gets me is at the end of the day three quarters of that energy you work so hard to put in your tank goes right out the tailpipe now how can that make any intelligent sense it's it's it's beyond belief so when we look now and that's not the 19th century we've kind of come from that actually earlier but we'll call it 150 years from the oil age it's very easy to see but in the lower right part we look at the 21st century and it's like you described in your chart well you knew about five things you need a solar panel maybe a little teeny lithium-ion battery to make transitions work you need electrolyzer and you need a fuel cell and some storage that's it now you compare that with all of the stuff going on uh it really is it really is baffling and it's interesting about the economics here and let's look at uh oahu you have about a million people and if you add up everyone's electric bill and transportation fuels and heating fields and so forth that comes to about five billion dollars every 12 months so 5 000 million is being vacuumed out of your pockets on oahu every 12 months and what's interesting about the hardware that we'll get to here and in the systems you're developing is instead of going to the hawaiian people and saying hey buy another thing there's an alternative here and the alternative is capitalism one of the most effective mechanisms in capitalism is an equipment lease finance package and so instead of buying the hardware that you need if you were to lease the equipment then an underwriter would come and pay for it so it's just like when you when you buy a car uh when you go to a dealership and buy a car you don't walk in with a suitcase full of money no you pay 2.99 a month and an underwriter would say okay i'm looking at your credit score you're good for the 300 bucks a month i'll buy the car for you but i'm going to hold the title so something goes wrong with you i get my money back and then at the end of the lease if everything's good the underwriter will say well i don't need the car anymore i already made my money but if you want to pay a residual i'll give you the title to the car some people want to do that other people say no i'll just take another lease because i get the full tax write-off anyway and i want the new equipment and they choose to do that and the underwriter says that's fine because i'll just sell the car to a rental company or something else and they make a nice little bit on the back end so that is the way i think we can move forward because look at i feel so much empathy for the citizens of oahu because you're paying what a federal income tax a state income tax a property tax you guys pay a sales tax then you pay a barrel and exercise how many taxes do you guys pay how can we burden the citizens of oahu to buy another thing and forgive me for saying this this is a it's rude as an outsider to kind of talk about something i'm not directly involved in but on oahu you have to my research a four billion dollar unfunded sewer upgrade that you need you have about a nine billion dollar pension unfunded liability to county and city workers for their pension then you have about a 14 billion dollar unpaid medical bill for those pensioners and then now recently you have a 10 billion dollar light rail project how much burden can we put on the shoulders of everyone on oahu so i'm very excited about the equipment leasing because here's how it looks by my calculation and i don't have the slides maybe another show i can show you how this math will work but i've can show that you pay five billion now every year and what happens next year pay me again near year after that pay me again five billion five billion five bill wow so this is very expensive if you were to equipment lease everything you need to transition to a solar hydrogen uh infrastructure the equipment lease would cost about 4 billion a year now look what you get that means you have a thousand million every 12 months that stays in the pockets of the average citizen on oahu that's pretty good and the underwriter comes up with this money we make the payments all you have to do is use the system just buy the energy you're buying now but from this other system and it'll be a thousand million less per year and then here's the good news after the term of the lease about five years guess what the equipment is already paid down now only thing left is maybe some maintenance so instead of the 4 billion now you can go down to 1 billion so you can make it an economic incentive and profitable to go clean hydrogen it's that path of profitability which i think is is is really the uh the prize here and the great news about equipment lease financing is there's lots of capital in the world there's huge tranches of capital they love equipment lease financing because they own the title to the hardware it's self-collateralizing don't worry about the underwriter they're okay they make a 10 rate of return each year on the money that they yeah where can you get 10 these days the bank will give you about half a quarter of a percent for your money that you're parking it so you know if you're a saver you're never going to be able to live off interest of your savings because there's not enough points you're not getting anything for all they're doing is keeping it in a bank account so right what money market account yeah i want to comment on what you said so riley saito uh on the big island he's with the r d department of the county hawaii so he uh he spearheaded this uh transportation services contracting uh concept did it all in one year got it passed so that it's just like you say it's like it's an equipment leasing kind of uh an arrangement so he can go to a private equity company and they will buy my 65 buses all the all the support infrastructure fueling the whole nine yards workforce development maintenance facilities whatever it takes to operate the bus they retain the ownership just like you said i think they're in a 10-year lease and what they want is like you said a uh 10-year recurring revenue stream with a guaranteed return on their investment and like you said there's all sorts of people out there pension funds who would love to get a 10 or whatever it is i don't know what their return on investment was but like you said a recurring revenue stream that more than they can get by just parking their money in a bank and because they're working with the government um it's uh pretty secure so yeah this is the way we're going to populate i mean this concept anyways how we're going to populate the big island with a whole brand new fleet of you know zero emission buses and maybe some battery electric buses for certain things but uh you know obviously i'm the hydrogen guys so i want them to be hydrogen and uh for good reason it's a brilliant it was brilliant what he did and uh the first uh contractor has already been chosen and using that program they bought 10 uh just as a test they bought 10 elect your battery electric vehicles with all the charging infrastructure and everything like that so it's a great program and uh i think i'm gonna end here because we're almost out of time but the good news is we have lots of more to talk about so we're going to have you back maybe in another three or four weeks and we can continue this discussion but i i'll let you say the final word and then we'll sign off well time goes so fast in this subject but the subject is so important what we're talking about is the survival of our civilization no less than that we're dealing with a pandemic that's viral now we're dealing with a chemical problem and that is having kind of a mechanical influence with the with the climate disruption so this is a matter of life and death and what's important is the realization and the truth that if you have sunlight and water you can be as industrial as you want and not hurt anybody not hurt our future generations not hurt our biosphere and that is uh the most important thing we can do uh right now so so with that we'll sign off the takeaway from this is hydrogen the great decarbonizer and the hope for our future thank you so much toby and we'll be talking to you in another few weeks aloha [Applause] you